Here’s a quick overview of what you can expect from the odd throuple—Modi, Nitish and Naidu. Yes, Hindutva will be downgraded—but so might the PM’s beloved Gujarat.
First, the 3.0 cabinet
There are 72 ministers in the new cabinet—of which 61 are from the BJP and 11 represent its allies. There are 30 full ministers—five ministers of state with independent charge, and 36 junior ministers.
The allies landed five cabinet minister positions, two MoS (w/ independent charge) and five MoS. No, we don’t know the portfolios yet. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP party got two slots—while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) landed two. The surprise winner: Bihar’s Chirag Paswan—from the Lok Janshakti Party—who was made full minister.
First sign of trouble: Praful Patel—who belongs to the rebel NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar—refused to accept a Minister of State position. Since he was a full minister in the UPA cabinet, he considers this a demotion. Expect more trouble when portfolios are announced.
Also notable: Among those who didn’t make the grade: Anurag Thakur—the infamous Sports and Information and Broadcasting minister—who was rewarded for leading mobs during the Delhi violence in 2020.
The Big Q: Will it work?
Modi hai, toh mumkin hai? What was once an assertion of his leadership has become a big fat question mark about his political skills. Modi has never needed to compromise—to cajole and persuade others—or to play with the weaker hand:
Prime Minister Modi is not known to believe in wide-ranging consultations; he believes in implementing what he thinks is right, without being handicapped by the wishes and interests of supporting parties… It won't be a cakewalk. Modi is not known to change his style, and that is the biggest challenge.
Then again, this now viral clip of the PM greeting Nitish Kumar suggests otherwise:
Will it fall apart? Political bartering aside, coalition governments in India are seen as weak and precarious—far too susceptible to “resort politics.” Nitish Kumar is a bona fide Paltu Ram—whose flip flops are already the fodder of memes. But the partnership with Chandrababu Naidu is no less uncomfortable or unreliable. His Telugu Desam Party won the 2014 elections as part of the Modi-led NDA—but walked out in 2018—right before the Lok Sabha elections (more on this below). That said, neither Nitish nor Naidu are likely to cede the juicy perks of playing kingmaker. There is little profit in joining a leader-less INDIA alliance—that has shown little readiness to take power.
But, but, but: Some pundits say the real threat lies with the BJP—and its well-honed talent for dismantling parties:
I won't be surprised if the Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) model of splitting a political party is not repeated in the near future. What is the guarantee that two-thirds of members of these two parties won't decide to move towards and merge with the BJP to circumvent the anti-defection law? That will help the BJP inch towards the magic figure of 272.
The INDIA alliance may also get the special BJP treatment. The only problem: Everyone can see the fates of those who went before them—namely Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. No good comes of being seduced by saffron.
The next Q: How will it work?
How will Uniter Modi govern? What policies will be sacrificed to coalition dharma—and which will remain non-negotiable? Some of these are obvious—the others will prove far more tricky to navigate. Let’s start with the obvious:
One: There will be little change in foreign policy. Both Naidu and Nitish are far more focused on their backyards to demand a role in diplomacy. There is also very little dissent around foreign affairs. Unlike the Left in the UPA government, no one is hostile to the US—or cosied up to China. As one expert describes it: "I don't see much change, mostly as not much change is possible. And this would be true if it was any other coalition too.”
Two: Economic growth will continue to be a priority—though certain reforms that threaten the political base of TDP and JD(U) will be shelved. For example: The military recruitment program Agnipath—under which 75% of military recruits will be hired on temporary four-year contracts.
The decision has proved to be disastrous—because the military and Indian railways are the primary source of secure jobs in states like Bihar, UP, and Haryana—where unemployment is soaring. JD(U) and other allies have already demanded a “review” of its “shortcomings.”
Also endangered: The revamped labour laws—which were fiercely resisted by unions. Farm laws will remain a distant memory.
Point to note: Contrary to all doomsaying, coalition governments in India have pushed through big-ticket reforms in the past. As Mint points out, UPA and NDA governments since 1989 “heralded, expanded and presided over India’s economic reforms to produce the economy’s best period of growth in history.” OTOH, it took a certain kind of personality to do so: Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Narasimha Rao, Manmohan Singh.
Three: States will regain their financial bargaining power—in what has become an increasingly lopsided relationship. For example: the union government has been keen to bring petroleum products under GST—diverting the revenue to the union government kitty. The two Chief Ministers—Naidu and Nitish—will never allow it. States heavily rely on petroleum taxes to pay their bills.
More importantly this: In the leadup to the elections, chief ministers of South Indian states complained bitterly about ‘economic injustice’—the union government’s conscious strategy to deprive them of their share of tax revenue. They were accused of having a “separatist mindset.” That mindset is now holding court in Modi-ji’s living room.
Four: The larger Hindutva agenda will end up on the back burner—unless the BJP can find a creative way to persuade its partners to look the other way. The plan to introduce a Uniform Civil Code is dead in the water. Both TDP and JD(U) have an explicitly secular ideology—and rely on the support of Muslims.
A senior JD(U) leader has already said: “We want to make it very clear that the JD(U) will not support any legislation that may dishonour the social fabric of the country.” TDP netas are just as uninterested in stirring this pot: “Our manifesto is very clear. We have received the mandate for development and social welfare, and this will remain our top priority. The UCC is not on our agenda.”
But, but, but: Nitish or Naidu may not expend their political capital on hate crimes in BJP-ruled states—like Chhattisgarh where two Muslim men were lynched to death last week.
Five: Gujarat may stop being quite so special. The state has greatly benefitted from the largesse of the union government—thanks to its two native sons ruling the roost in Delhi. Both Nitish and Naidu want their states to be special, as well—literally. They are demanding ‘special category status’ for Bihar and Andhra Pradesh—which entitles disadvantaged states to extra help from New Delhi.
Amravati vs Ahmedabad: Naidu has long dreamt of making Andhra Pradesh’s new capital—Amaravati—the Singapore of the South. Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh says:
TDP never negotiates for posts (in the central government), we only negotiate funds for the state, to bring industries to our state… strong states make a strong nation, and we want to be part of the $5 trillion economy dream. We believe that Andhra Pradesh alone can be a trillion dollar economy.
That includes a share of new investments in electronics manufacturing, semiconductors and smartphones—all of which are prizes Gujarat would like for itself. Reminder: Gujarat landed three chip manufacturing projects in the run up for the Lok Sabha elections. That kind of lopsided generosity will not go unchallenged.
The bottomline: Sharing is caring.
Reading list
The Atlantic Council has a comprehensive round up of expert views—you can check out the interview with Pratap Banu Mehta over at NPR. Mint looks at the new-found bargaining power of states—and has a primer on possible policy outcomes. Indian Express has Naidu’s stormy history with the NDA—while India Today’s TS Sudhir explains why the Modi-Naidu combo may be good for India. Also in Indian Express: The Amravati vs Ahmedabad contest for resources. Business Standard and News18 have more on the foreign policy angle.
