Tariff wars: Trump gives the world whiplash… again!

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

Tariff wars: Trump gives the world whiplash… again!

Bhaiyon aur behenon, what can we say? The Tariff Terrorist has once again blinked in the game of chicken that he forced on the world. Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause (to be exact, ‘PAUSE’) on the insane tariffs he announced just days ago. For now, there will be a standard 10% rate on “more than 75” countries. But beastly Beijing will suffer even greater punishment—the Chinese tariff has been upped to 125% from 104%. After a point, does it even make a difference? The new rate is a tit-for-tat response to China’s announcement it will impose a 84% tariff on all US goods.

The reason for the U-turn: The crashing markets—or more accurately, the tanking US Treasury bonds and the dollar—both considered the safest bets in the global economy. In Trump’s immortal words: “Over the last few days it looked pretty glum. I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy. They were getting a little bit afraid.” And nobody likes glum—it’s positively un-American. OTOH, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed the 90-day pause was the “strategy all along.”

Quote to note: But “strategy” to achieve what? The bit that is giving Democrats ‘pause’—just hours before the announcement, Trump posted: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”—which kinda smelled of market manipulation. At the very least, someone ought to look at the stock portfolio of the Trump khandaan.

The fallout: Like good little lemmings, the markets soared: The Dow skyrocketed 2,963 points, or 7.87%. The S&P 500 shot up 9.52%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 12.16%. It was goddamn historic:

In a massive turnaround, the S&P 500 posted its best day since October 2008. It was also the third-best day for the benchmark index since its modern-day version was formed in 1957. The Nasdaq posted its best day since January 2001 and its second-best day in its history. The Dow posted its best day in five years.

But, but, but: The rise in equity hasn’t been matched by either the dollar—which is still weak—or the bonds. Long-term confidence in the US still remains shaky:

But in a trade war, investors may be fearful that America could lose its special standing in the world.. And foreign governments negotiating with Trump on trade may threaten to sell off their massive Treasury hoards, hurting America’s ability to borrow money to pay for its significant budget deficit. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six foreign currencies, pared its losses after initially sliding on Wednesday. The dollar has broadly weakened this year — a potential warning sign about waning investor confidence in the United States.

The big picture: The escalating trade war between two of the world’s largest economies hardly bodes well for the future of the global economy. Neither does Trump in the White House:

Even more to the point, Trump is committing himself even more strongly to unpredictability. If tariffs can be firmly on in the morning and then paused in the afternoon, with no clear explanation or prologue, they can be back on again soon… Tariffs are crushing for small businesses; for large businesses, they’re frustrating but not fatal. The greater problem for the big companies is instability. An executive can’t make a solid plan if they don’t know what sort of regime they’ll be dealing with in two months or six months.

Quote to note: The managing partner of a leading investment firm sent out a memo that said this:

[Thomas] Lee wrote that he has had “many conversations” with macro fund managers who are expressing concern that those in the White House aren’t acting rationally — and who worry the tariffs go beyond politics and policy. “Some even fear that this may not even be ideology,” Lee wrote. “A few have quietly wondered if the President might be insane.”

Reading list: New York Times (login required) and The Guardian offer good overviews of the announcement—with context. CNN is best on the markets. Quartz has the story about worried fund managers. Wall Street Journal (splainer gift link) offers a detailed analysis of the long-term picture—which is mainly for financial nerds. The Atlantic is best on what this announcement says about Trump himself.

India vs Bangladesh: Battle of the ‘Chicken’s Neck’

The context: Relations between the two nations have been icy ever since former PM Sheikh Hasina—and New Delhi’s bestie—was hounded out of office last August. Despite multiple arrest warrants issued by Dhaka, Hasina has been living in exile in India—threatening to make a comeback. The US allegedly backed the campaign to kick out Hasina. But the Trump White House has a prickly relationship with the interim government—headed by Mohammad Yunus. All this while, Dhaka has also been a little flirty with Beijing—which has doled out $7.5 billion in loans—but no one knew exactly where Yunus would land.

What happened next: In late March, we got an answer to that big Q. On a four-day visit to China, Yunus launched this bombshell:

The seven states of eastern India, known as the Seven Sisters, are a landlocked region. They have no direct access to the ocean. We are the only guardian of the ocean for this entire region. This opens up a huge opportunity. It could become an extension of the Chinese economy — build things, produce things, market things, bring goods to China and export them to the rest of the world.

Yup, Yunus actually said parts of India could become an “extension of the Chinese economy”!

Why this is a big deal: China lays claim to vast swathes of land in the Northeast—including Arunachal Pradesh in its entirety. It has also made inroads into Bhutan and Burma, and in 2021, beefed up its military presence in Tibet’s Chumbi Valley near the border with Sikkim. All of which is targeted at India’s most vulnerable territory in the region—called the Siliguri corridor or Chicken’s Neck. It is a thin 17 km stretch that connects the North East to the rest of India—as you can see below:

The plot thickens: Now add to this rumours that Bangladesh wants the Chinese to redevelop an airbase at Lalmunirhat—next door to the Chicken’s Neck. If you look at the map again—you can see why that would be really worrying.

What happened now: Since 2020, India has allowed Bangladesh to transport goods over land—across Indian territory—to other countries. It has now revoked that privilege as the first significant sign of displeasure with Yunus. The move hurts Dhaka where it hurts most—its garment industry:

Although India-Bangladesh relations nosedived after Hasina’s ouster, exporters had been using Indian land customs stations, ports and airports to ship their products to Europe and the US. In case of ready-made garments, the transhipment facility allowed exporters to send their products to India through land ports in bonded trucks or closed containers, which were then taken to New Delhi for shipping to the final destinations — mostly through Indira Gandhi International Airport.

The access helped reduce costs and logistics—and will dent the bottomline—right in the midst of Trump’s tariff wars.

What’s interesting: India will still allow Dhaka to ship its goods to Nepal and Bhutan over land—across the Chicken’s Neck—presumably to avoid making the latter unhappy.

The big picture: Yunus seems to be deliberately baiting New Delhi—and was rumoured to have been extremely rude to PM Modi at a recent global conference. It may backfire if Trump reinstates his 26% tariff on India—which is still lower compared to Bangladesh’s 37%. And it may offer an opportunity to wrest back the garment export business—which we lost to Dhaka decades ago. Revoking this access will be an added boost.

Reading list: The Telegraph has the best reporting on India’s decision to revoke ‘transhipment’ access. Indian Express has Yunus’ provocative remarks on the northeast. We did an excellent Big Story on China’s designs on the northeastern states.

Attention employers: Remote jobs are now an AI hazard

We all know about startups posting fake job listings—to pretend they are growing and doing well. Thanks to AI, we now have fake applicants—just to make the job market even more dysfunctional. Scammers are now using AI to create deepfake identities and resumés to get hired for remote jobs. A recently duped CEO says:

Gen AI has blurred the line between what it is to be human and what it means to be machine. What we’re seeing is that individuals are using these fake identities and fake faces and fake voices to secure employment, even sometimes going so far as doing a face swap with another individual who shows up for the job.

Point to note: The aim is not always to get hired. A fake job seeker can have other goals—”to install malware to demand ransom from a company, or steal its customer data, trade secrets or funds.” There is also a geopolitical risk. According to the US Justice Department, 300 US companies across industries—from tech to defense—have accidentally hired impostors from North Korea—using stolen American identities. Their salaries are funneled back to Pyongyang to support its weapons program.

The scary data point: Research firm Gartner predicts that by 2028, 1 in 4 job candidates could be fake. For a related read, check out this Fortune piece on the North Korean IT scam workers hired by Fortune 500 companies. (CNBC News)

what caught our eye

business & tech

Apple fans are stampeding to stores to snag iPhones before tariffs kick in.
In another impact of the tariffs, Amazon's trimming ties with Asia—canceling product orders to dodge Trump-era tariffs, says Bloomberg.
During their Monetary Policy Committee meeting yesterday, RBI cut repo rate by 25 bps—loans may get cheaper, GDP takes a hit, and the policy mood shifts to ‘accommodative’.
In more scary news for your Aadhaar card—India’s new Aadhaar app, now in beta, uses Face ID and AI for card-free authentication.

sports & entertainment

Coming in October: a new novel by the legendary Thomas Pynchon. Titled ‘Shadow Ticket’, it marks the 87-year-old’s comeback after 12 years with 2013’s ‘Bleeding Edge’
‘Squid Game’ star O Yeung Su has been sentenced to one year in prison after being found guilty of sexual assault.
SRK and Kajol will be immortalised in a bronze statue at London’s Leicester Square, paying tribute to ‘Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge’ (DDLJ).
Gujarat Titans stormed to the top of the IPL points table with a 58-run thrashing of Rajasthan Royals. Sai Sudharsan’s 82 off 53 balls and Prasidh Krishna’s 3-24 were the standout performances.

health & environment

Fish swim bladders are making waves in medicine—scientists just turned them into an injectable gel that could help heal damaged hearts.
A massive study of 56 million pregnancies links diabetes during pregnancy to higher risks of ADHD, autism, and intellectual disabilities in kids.

meanwhile, in the world

New York Times (login required) has a good read on how Santo Domingo’s glitzy Jet Set nightclub turned into a death trap overnight—after a roof collapse killed at least 184.
At least 35 people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Gaza City’s Shujayea neighbourhood—with dozens more feared trapped as rescue teams race through the rubble.
The US is now scanning immigrants’ social media for antisemitic posts—new screenings kick in immediately for green card and visa hopefuls.
The Trump admin is cracking down on international students—at least 147 visas revoked over minor offenses, including an Indian student told to self-deport for a dismissed Walmart shoplifting case.
California’s back in “nation-state” mode—Governor Gavin Newsom is asking world leaders to go easy on Golden State goods as Trump’s sweeping tariffs threaten to batter the state’s economy.
Illegal gold mining in Brazil’s Indigenous territories has nosedived since Lula took office—Greenpeace credits the crackdown as Brazil preps to host this year’s UN climate summit.
The Hindu has a good read on Iran’s nose job craze—where facial tweaks are more than cosmetic, they’re a fast track to social status in a beauty scene shaped by strict dress codes.
Ukraine says it’s captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia—Zelenskyy warns the move could rattle already fragile peace talks.
South Korea is heading to the polls on June 3—snapping into election mode to replace impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, with zero transition time for whoever takes the top job.
Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD have finally struck a coalition deal—ending weeks of tense talks and kicking off a new government amid mounting global and local pressure.
Japan and NATO are teaming up to tighten security ties—aiming to counter growing threats from China and Russia.
The Islamic State is stirring again in Syria—ramping up attacks and recruiting fighters, with experts warning it could break thousands of militants out of prison, even as the US rushes in more troops to contain the threat.
Al-Qaeda-linked militants have stalled Kenya’s $25 billion dream of an Indian Ocean trade hub—turning its grand corridor plan into a construction zone under siege.
Nearly $2 billion in federal funds are getting frozen at Cornell and Northwestern as part of the Trump admin’s elite-university crackdown.
Also getting pulled: Four million dollars in climate research funding from Princeton—with the White House claiming the studies exaggerated threats and fueled “climate anxiety” among youth.
After missing out on Euro Disney, Britain’s getting its own blockbuster moment—a Universal Studios theme park is set to open in 2031 as the UK’s biggest tourist draw, though the star characters are still under wraps.
A self-proclaimed “MAGA leftist” says Trump’s tariffs aren’t just about trade—they’re a fix for America’s masculinity crisis.
Russia’s secret satellite trio just dropped a mystery object in orbit—sparking fresh fears of space warfare.
Maple syrup fraud is bubbling up in the US—tariff threats could flood shelves with fakes, but AI might just save your pancakes.

meanwhile, in India

Tahawwur Rana—extradited from the US for his role in the 26/11 attacks—lands in Delhi today, nearly 16 years after his arrest.
Air India’s in hot water again—this time over a Delhi-Bangkok flyer who peed on a co-passenger mid-air.
Delhi just smashed the 5,000 MW mark for power demand—and with a brutal summer ahead, it’s expected to hit an all-time high of 9,000 MW.
Mumbai Police have filed a 1,000-page chargesheet in the Saif Ali Khan stabbing case—packed with forensic evidence linking the suspect to the attack at his Bandra home.
No meals, no toilet breaks—Indian Railways has denied basic rest for Loco Pilots, even as human error continues to plague major train accidents.
The Supreme Court will hear the Waqf law challenge on April 16—with the Centre filing a caveat to make sure it gets a say before any orders are passed.
No waivers for Wayanad landslide victims—the Centre told Kerala HC it’ll only reschedule or restructure loans, not write them off.
Apple's been busy in Chennai—30 cargo flights loaded with its products took off for the US and Hong Kong between January and early April.
The Centre has greenlit a Rs 63,000-crore deal to buy 26 Rafale-M jets from France—set to be inked during the French Defence Minister’s India visit this month.

Seven things to see

One: The Habitat Comedy Club was trashed by Shiv Sena workers angry at Kunal Kamra’s stand-up comedy special—which called Eknath Shinde a ‘gaddar’. The Wire has released CCTV footage of policemen idly standing by as Shiv Sena goons went on a rampage. Is anyone shocked or even surprised by this?

Two: Sticking with over-sensitive ideologues, Hindutva activists in Delhi have a new beef (hahaha)—but this time with a fish market in Delhi’s Chittaranjan Park—a storied Bengali bastion in the capital. They are trying to force vendors to shut their business—because the fish market shares a wall with a Kali temple. Irony alert: The fish markets were set up in 1971—the temple was later built when the shopkeepers pooled money to build it. Also: fish is offered as the mahaprasad at Kali temples. See the video below. (The Telegraph)

Three: Two acts of protest shook Microsoft’s 50th anniversary celebrations. First, employee Ibtihal Aboussad interrupted AI chief Mustafa Suleyman’s keynote, accusing the company of fuelling genocide in Gaza and tossing a keffiyeh scarf on stage. Then Vaniya Agrawal confronted Gates, Ballmer, and Nadella when they were speaking on stage. Both women resigned soon after. Well, it’s nice to see Indian Americans making news for the right reasons—after shilling for the Biden White House for years. (Indian Express)

Four: Watch Tillotama Shome describe a poignant incident from her career—which reveals the vast wage gap in Bollywood—and the misogyny that nurtures it. (The Telegraph)

Five: Disney and Swarovski marked 20 years of collaboration with a new Disney Classics line—a collection of crystal figurines of iconic characters from Disney’s early films. The lineup includes Bambi, Dumbo, Lucky from ‘101 Dalmatians’, and Marie from ‘The Aristocats’—with prices ranging from $280 to $550. We’re not big fans of Swarovski, but these are pretty cute. Example: Bambi.

And here’s Dumbo. (Hollywood Reporter)

Six: Babil Khan is full on in the trailer for ‘Logout’—a dark, Black Mirror-ish fast-paced thriller where a phone-obsessed influencer spirals into chaos after his device is stolen by a jilted follower. ‘Logout’ drops on Zee5 on April 18. You can watch the trailer below. (Indian Express)

Seven: Elon Musk rage-quit a livestream of his favourite game Path of Exile 2 mid-flight after being relentlessly cyberbullied by gamers—which you can watch here. We’re not sure how to feel about that. But we did enjoy this take from Italian politician Vincenzo De Luca on the man. (DailyBeast)