It was a 7.7 magnitude earthquake that devastated most of the nation—and has killed at least 1,700 people. It is the latest in a string of calamities visited on its people.
First, some context
The country has been under military rule for most of its history. But no one paid much attention to its woes until Aung San Suu Kyi became an international cause célèbre—imprisoned for opposing the military regime. She finally took power when the military stepped back in 2015.
The coup: Far from a revolutionary, Suu Kyi appeased the military leadership to stay in power—until they decided that they had no use for her or any other civilian government in 2021. The military seized power in February 2021—led by commander-in-chief General Min Aung Hlaing. Ever since, the junta has been crushing popular resistance—with very little restraint.
Where we are now: The government is isolated in the international arena—and subject to sweeping UN sanctions—but mostly on paper. Various nations—including India—continue to supply the junta with weapons, used primarily against its own people. Since 2023, however, militias have waged a bloody resistance against the government—often winning vital ground.
The map of control: According to a BBC News investigation in 2024, Myanmar’s military government controls only 21% of the country’s territory—while rebel forces and ethnic armies hold 42%. This is what the BBC map looks like as of November 2024:
The numbers: To date, 75,000 have been killed due to the violence—and three million have been displaced.
What happened in Myanmar?
A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar at 1.20 pm local time on Friday. Its epicentre was located about 17.2 km from Mandalay—the nation’s second-largest city. Here is a Reuters map of the areas most affected:
The damage: The scale of damage remains mostly unknown due to Myanmar’s isolation from the world. At the time of publishing, the official death toll is 1,700—and 3,400 injured. But experts estimate fatalities could be between 10,000 and 100,000 people, and the economic impact could be as high as 70% of Myanmar’s GDP.
Entire swathes of the country have been flattened:
An assessment by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said hospitals and health facilities had sustained “extensive damaged or destruction”, adding that there were “a severe shortage of medical supplies”. Major bridges, roads, universities, hotels, historical and religious sites and public buildings have also been heavily damaged or destroyed, according to reports cited by UNOCHA.
This is the Mahamuni Pagoda—one of the country's most sacred Buddhist sites.
And below is the before and after of Hsinbyume Pagoda in Sagaing:
And here’s a clip of the Shwe Boan Shein Mosque reduced to rubble:
Data points to note: The earthquake had the energy of more than a hundred nuclear weapon explosions. And the city of Mandalay has a population of 1.5 million.
Meanwhile, in Bangkok: The impact of the earthquake was felt as far as Bangkok—which is more than 1,000 km from the epicentre. A 30-storey building that was still under construction collapsed. As of now 17 deaths are confirmed, and 32 people are injured. You can see the building collapse below:
It ain’t over yet: A 6.7-magnitude aftershock struck minutes after the quake—and more are expected.
The politics of rescue
The rescue effort has been abysmal as of now. Residents have been desperately trying to free victims from the rubble with bare hands. The situation is so bad that the junta leader Min Aung Hlaing—who has blocked aid in the past—put out a blunt appeal to “any country, any organisation” to help—and said he “opened all ways for foreign aid.”
As of now, Russia and China—among Myanmar’s few allies—have rushed rescue teams, as has India. We have dispatched two naval ships carrying 10 tonnes of relief supplies and deployed an army field hospital with 118 medical personnel, with two more ships to follow. The European Union announced €2.5 million in initial emergency aid—while the UK will send £10 million. The UN has allocated $5 million for now. It’s not clear what the US—which has gutted foreign aid under Trump—will do.
But, but, but: The junta may have changed its mind about foreign aid, but not the armed militias. Even the earthquake couldn’t force a temporary ceasefire. The military launched multiple air strikes across the Sagaing region—large parts of which are controlled by pro-democracy groups:
An hour after Friday’s earthquake, a military paramotor, or motor-powered paraglider, dropped bombs in Chaung Oo village in Sagaing, said Phyu Win, a resident. “People were already terrified from the quake, and with the chaos, it was impossible to take cover in bomb shelters,” she said. The army’s airplanes have continued to fly overhead since the earthquake. “The junta has no interest in helping people,” Ms. Phyu Win said. “They only want to kill.”
Most experts are also sceptical whether the junta will allow rebel-controlled areas to receive aid—using it as a weapon to weaken the resistance.
But, but, but: The chaos unleashed by the earthquake could also offer an opportunity for the militias—to wrest the country from military control. Experts agree that the disaster is “a moment of jeopardy for Min Aung Hlaing.” FYI: The civilian Opposition alliance—National Unity Government (NUG)—has declared a truce for now.
About that earthquake…
Our planet has three components: a molten core, a nearly solid layer of rock called the mantle, and a crust made up of constantly shifting tectonic plates. These plates keep sliding up and down—creating energy that builds up under the crust. When this energy is suddenly released, it causes what we call an earthquake. Here’s what happened with this specific quake.
Let’s start with the plates: Around 45 million years ago, the Indian tectonic plate collided with the Eurasian plate—creating the Himalayas—and perfect earthquake country:
This mountain range, and the entire region, is filled with faults generated by that epic geological pileup. The Indian plate is still very slowly running into Eurasia, and those myriad faults take on a lot of stress as a result. From time to time, they rupture.
The boundary between the two plates is called the Saigang Fault—“a long, straight line running approximately 1,200km (745 miles) from north to south through cities such as Mandalay and Yangon.”
A shallow quake: This was a “strike slip” earthquake—caused when “plates move past each other horizontally at different speeds.” These are not usually destructive—except this one was also very shallow. The depth of the epicentre was only 10 km below the surface—causing far more shaking up top. British Geological Survey fellow Roger Musson says:
This is very damaging because it has occurred at a shallow depth, so the shockwaves are not dissipated as they go from the focus of the earthquake up to the surface. The buildings received the full force of the shaking. It’s important not to be focused on epicentres because the seismic waves don’t radiate out from the epicentre - they radiate out from the whole line of the fault.
And that brings us to the second reason this quake was especially intense.
A straight fault line: As we noted above, the Sagaing Fault is pretty much a straight line. This means the quake can travel uninterrupted—right down that line:
The straight nature [of the fault] means earthquakes can rupture over large areas - and the larger the area of the fault that slips, the larger the earthquake," [Dr Rebecca Bell, a reader in tectonics at Imperial College London] explained.. This straight fault also means a lot of the energy can be carried down its length—which extends for 1200 km south towards Thailand.
You can see the line below:
An added Mandalay problem: Parts of the region lie along a river floodplain—making them prone to “liquefaction”:
This happens when the soil has a high water content, and the shaking causes the sediment to lose its strength and behave like a liquid. This increases the risk of landslides and building collapses, as the ground can no longer hold them up.
The human factor: We can’t control the intensity of a quake—but we can protect ourselves from the worst effects. Yes, a single building fell in Bangkok, but most survived—like this one that only lost the water from its rooftop pool:
OTOH, there are almost no quake-resistant buildings in Myanmar—and even basic building codes are poorly enforced. This despite “rapid urbanisation”—with “a boom in high-rise buildings constructed from reinforced concrete.” While the country has experienced quakes in the past, this one is expected to be far more deadly:
Critically, during all previous magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes along the Sagaing Fault, Myanmar was relatively undeveloped, with mostly low-rise timber-framed buildings and brick-built religious monuments. Today's earthquake is the first test of modern Myanmar's infrastructure against a large, shallow-focus earthquake close to its major cities.
Point to note: Bangkok authorities are already so shaken by the building collapse, they plan to bring more than 100 engineers to inspect buildings for safety.
The bottomline: There’s a popular saying among disaster experts: “Earthquakes don't kill people; collapsing infrastructure does.”
Reading list
Al Jazeera put together the best overview—while BBC News has more on the cause. Reuters has the infographics and facts on the quake itself. France24 looks at the lack of safety codes. The Guardian reports on the rescue efforts. For more on how the earthquake will affect the political future of Myanmar, read New York Times and The Hindu. This Big Story looks at the teetering junta government—while the Council of Foreign Relations has a detailed political history of Myanmar.
