It has been three years since the all-powerful Myanmar military brushed aside the Aung San Suu Kyi government—and re-established martial law. They seemed invincible—untouched by a nationwide uprising. Except it turns out they are not.
Remind me about Myanmar…
We’re not going to give you a history lesson—which is readily available in this Big Story. But here are the high/lowlights.
The long military rule: Myanmar has been under military rule for most of its history—with brief dalliances with democracy in between—and struggled with civil war, international isolation, and widespread poverty. The first military coup took place in 1962—and General U Ne Win held power for the next 26 years.
Rise of Suu Kyi: There have been many protests against the military—and just as many bloody crackdowns. But what matters is Aung San Suu Kyi—the face of popular dissent who spent 15 years in jail. In 2010, Suu Kyi was released, and the junta unexpectedly dissolved itself. She finally took power as the nation’s civilian leader in 2015 after the nation’s first freest election. But she spent most of her time in power making the military happy—and turning a blind eye to its excesses.
The junta strikes back: Once she became prime minister, Suu Kyi was far from an inspiring revolutionary. She instead appeased the military leadership to stay in power—until they decided that they had no use for her or any other civilian government in 2021. They seized power in February 2021—led by commander in chief General Min Aung Hlaing. Ever since, the junta has been crushing popular resistance—with very little restraint. (All of that explained in this Big Story).
The military has been on a rampage—intent on destroying the rebels and the country—say NGO activists:
Thousands and thousands have been killed, 2.3 million people have been displaced. 18.6 million in Myanmar are in need right now of humanitarian aid. Half the country has fallen into poverty. The education system doesn’t exist for millions of children. The healthcare system is in shambles.
But, but, but: At the time of the coup, the military seemed invincible—as did its ruler Min Aung Hlaing. Neither proved to be true.
Ok I’ll bite. What happened to the military?
The first signs of real trouble: surfaced a year after the coup—in 2022. Min Aung Hlaing had failed to put down the resistance—despite a bloody show of force. He instead turned to “increasingly desperate measures to cling to power, firing senior ministers and military officers, and purging business cronies.” He also executed four activists—sparking outrage around the world. As one observer put it: “The general’s entire gambit from day one has been to demonstrate his willingness to go one step further than anyone else with threats and coercion. It is ‘rule by fear’.” But that didn’t work either.
The loss of foreign support: Even the bloodiest dictator needs some kind of ‘foreign aid’ to survive. At the time of the coup. Russia and China lent a helping hand. But Moscow soon became distracted by Ukraine. Today, it's Myanmar that sends military assistance to a beleaguered Russie.
As for Beijing: China has become increasingly frustrated with a shaky military regime—which is increasingly looking like a bad bet compared to Suu Kyi:
For China, the junta is a liability, unable to control their shared border and unwilling to crack down on crime. While a pro-democracy government is far from Beijing’s ideal in the global ideological balance, it is preferable to what would be a permanent state of instability under the junta. Beijing will also remember that the previous government under Aung San Suu Kyi was quite amenable to friendly ties with China.
None of this is ideal when you’re the “most sanctioned nation in the world.”
Operation 1027: The tipping point for Beijing came in 2023. It was increasingly frustrated with the junta’s unwillingness to rein in lucrative cyber-scam factories on the Chinese border (We explained this form of slavery here). Likely because the top leaders of the regime are deeply connected to these criminal syndicates.
The all-powerful warlords were instead eliminated by armed ethnic rebels instead—in a major offensive dubbed Operation 1027:
As the ethnic militias captured towns and military posts in the northern Shan state, numerous scam compounds near the Chinese border were liberated. Thousands of trafficked victims have been sent back to China, along with suspected ringleaders, according to Chinese authorities and the triumphant militias. Powerful warlord families, backed by the junta and once deemed untouchable by the law, are now in the custody of Chinese police.
Losing numbers: The neverending civil war has taken its toll. According to one conflict studies expert, “They have lost thousands of soldiers, either killed, wounded or taken as prisoners, and lost a huge amount of weapons.” The mounting losses have weakened Min Aung Hlaing’s position within the military.
More the military struggles, the harder it is to attract new recruits. The desperate regime introduced a mandatory two-year military draft—to little avail. The military is now reduced to “abducting young men on the streets''—which is “pushing people into hiding or fleeing the country or joining opposition forces.”
Irony alert! For decades, the military has massacred the Rohingya—Myanmar’s Muslim minority. Now, it’s forcing them to sign up for the military—threatening to harm their families if they refuse.
Data point to note: The 500,000-strong military is down to 150,000 troops or less.
The big picture: Overwhelmed by a tanking economy, shrinking ranks and an armed resistance, the Tatmadaw—aka the Myanmar military—has very few options. And very few friends.
And who is this resistance? Pro-democracy groups?
There are two separate sources of opposition to the regime. It is important not to confuse the two.
The National Unity Government: was formed by elected lawmakers—who were ousted by the military: “It claims to be Myanmar’s legitimate government and has tried to establish a local presence nationwide, gaining the loyalty of many people.” It has a loosely organised military arm called the People's Defense Force—but it consists of local cells that operate in their own area.
The pro-democracy groups are primarily protected by ethnic militias—which have been fighting the military for decades:
The opposition to military rule depends more on allies among armed ethnic minority organisations that have long fought the central government for greater local autonomy. They have provided weapons, training and safe haven for pro-democracy fighters and sometimes carry out joint operations.
The real threat to the military is the Three Brotherhood Alliance aka the 3BHA.
The Three Brother Alliance: consists of three militias: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and the Arakan Army. It was formed in 2019—and came out in support of the pro-democracy groups immediately after the coup in 2021.
The Arakan Army has about 30,000 soldiers—many of them recruited from the oppressed Muslim minority Rohingya. MNDAA represents the Kokang people—and operates near the Chinese border in the north. The TNLA is made up of fighters from the fringe Ta’ang minority group.
A string of successes: Everyone is suddenly talking about Myanmar because the alliance won a string of victories in 2023. In October—when launched Operation 1027—they seized 100 military outposts across the northern Shan state.
Their success inspired copycat attacks on the military across the nation:
We’re certainly looking at a moment of historic Myanmar military weakness, and many of its foes are recognizing that and deciding, therefore, that now is the right time to go on the offensive. And that’s why we’ve seen such an uptick in clashes and military operations by resistance forces across Myanmar in the last three months.
The regime has now lost territory along Myanmar’s border with China and India—as well as areas of Rakhine in the west. But it controls the heart of the country—including the big cities of Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyidaw.
Wooing Beijing: The best measure of the militias’ success is Beijing’s sudden interest in building its relationship with the rebels. It even attempted to broker a ‘peace deal’—albeit unsuccessfully. The militias for their part have been making noises that are music to Beijing’s ears:
The alliance pledged to not only overthrow the military dictatorship, but also “eradicate telecom fraud, scam dens and their patrons nationwide, including in areas along the China-Myanmar border” – a message experts say was clearly intended for Beijing.
A decisive victory? April may mark a turning point in the war against the Tatmadaw. The rebel forces recently secured a big prize: Myawaddy—on the eastern border with Thailand. Why this is a serious loss:
Myawaddy, in Karen state, is one of the most important border crossings in Myanmar and crucial to the flow of goods between the country and Thailand. It has been controlled by the military for decades.
You can see it in the map below:
The NUG claims the opposition controls 60% of the country—and claimed credit for a drone attack on the capital Nay Pyi Taw.
But, but, but: It is far too early to count the tenacious Tatmadaw out. One conflict expert warns:
The defeat of the junta or the Myanmar military is not inevitable at this point. Their backs are to the wall. They know the only way out of this for them is to keep on fighting, and they will do so with great determination because of the costs of failure.
Or as the Thai prime minister Srettha Thavisin points out, “The current regime is starting to lose some strength … but even if they are losing, they have the power, they have the weapons.”
The bottomline: As one regional expert Thitinan Pongsudhirak writes, “Kicking out Min Aung Hlaing and his military cronies is only half the battle.” The real battle for Myanmar’s soul will begin after they have been kicked out.
Reading list
Al Jazeera offers an up close look at the militias from the frontline. The Diplomat has more on the waning support from China. The Guardian looks at what’s next for the junta. BBC News spotlights the military recruitment of the Rohingya. If you’re curious about India’s relationship with the junta, read this Big Story.
