On November 5, Americans will go to the polls to choose their next president—in an election that is shockingly—‘can you effing believe it’—close. We look at the bizarre state of play—and what will determine the future of the US—and, yes, other nations, as well.
Editor’s note: When we dialled down to a single Big Story a week, I promised that splainer remains deeply committed to helping you navigate the most significant events in the world. Toward that end, we will be doing a series of Big Stories this week on the US election—as many as we need to capture the looming chaos.
The crazy-making electoral college
US elections often turn into all-out tamashas in close races because of this bizarre method of choosing a president. Here’s how it works.
Every state gets one elector per each member in Congress from its state—both in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Now, the number of House Reps a state sends to Congress is tied to its population, but the number of senators is not. Every state gets two Senate seats irrespective. As Quartz explains:
In particular, voters in less populous states, such as Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming, have significantly more power than those in more populous states such as California, Florida, and Texas.
In California, for example, there are about 546,000 voters per elector. In Wyoming there are only 149,000. Thus, an individual vote in Wyoming carries about 3.7 times more weight in choosing who ultimately becomes president. Because less populous states also tend to be more rural, this effectively diminishes the power of urban voters.
And since many of these states also tend to be more conservative in present-day America, Dems have a harder time crafting a path to victory in the electoral college.
Map to note: In terms of actual voters, the US is far bluer than it seems. For example, the election map from 2016 is a sea of red if you represent it in terms of state territories—and vast swathes of empty land are painted red. What it hides: the far smaller number of people who actually live and vote in these states. So Belgian designer Karim Douïeb created an electoral map that represents the people who actually live in these states. And look at the difference:
The big number: 270. That’s the number of electoral votes needed to become president.
The big picture: The electoral college has become a problem in recent decades as America has grown increasingly and bitterly divided—between die-hard red and blue states. As long as those fault lines remain sharply drawn, every presidential election will come down to a handful of electors. This one is no different.
The countdown: Two days to total chaos?
Election Day: is on Tuesday, November 5. Thanks to the time difference, polling stations on the east coast will close first. But almost all of the voting is done by midnight, EST. TV channels start to ‘call’ results in each state in the evening.
But—infuriatingly—some states do not start counting the mail-in votes until Election Day. This means it can take ages to declare a winner—when the numbers are close. In 2020, it took five days to call the election for President Biden after a surge in mail-in voting during the pandemic.
Data point to note: The US allows early voting—and roughly 75 million people have already cast their ballot. North Carolina set a record with 4.5 million voters—and Georgia with four million. In Pennsylvania—which is a key swing state—1.7 million people voted by mail. Nine states have seen more than 50% of eligible voters already vote.
The state of play: Opinion polls show the race remains astonishingly tight—and unstable. At the beginning of October, Trump seemed to surge in the polls, erasing Harris’ lead. FiveThirtyEight now gives Harris a narrow national lead of about 1.0 points as of Friday. That doesn’t mean anything because… see: Electoral College. Like Hillary Clinton, she could easily win the popular vote—and get fewer electoral college votes than Trump. That said, a shocker poll in Iowa—a key swing state— sees Harris leading in a historically red state. The key swing states in the NYT polls look like this:
- Arizona: Trump +4
- Georgia: Harris +1
- Michigan: Trump +1
- Nevada: Harris +3
- North Carolina: Harris +3
- Pennsylvania: Even
- Wisconsin: Harris +3
Also this: Other poll aggregators like Real Clear Politics show Trump leading Harris by an average of 0.1%. In other words, all these so-called ‘leads’ are statistically meaningless.
Something to remember: Opinion polls are often a poor indicator of what happens on Election Day. Joe Biden’s comfortable seven point lead in the polls magically disappeared in 2020. Politico’s hot take on that particular debacle: “The polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”
The good news for Harris: FWIW, gamblers—who tend to be far more reliable than pundits—are betting on Harris—who apparently has staged a “ferocious comeback” on betting platforms. A predictive model based on these bets claims Trump’s campaign suddenly capsized last week—brought down by his extremely racist NYC rally.
Point to note: Some Wall Street analysts agree—but predict political chaos until Christmas:
We think she will win about 280 electoral votes, just above the 270 required,” he said in a note to clients. The most likely outcome is a photo finish — Ms Harris by a fraction in a race that may not be settled until there’s a resolution of at least eight or nine recounts. The big winners will be the lawyers. The election is so close that it could be Christmas before there’s a final result.
In other words, irrespective of who wins, expect to be subjected to days/weeks of hot-air punditry.
The big Q: Why is it so goddamn close?
That’s what most of the world is wondering. Setting aside his politics, Trump is increasingly erratic in public—his mental competence seems shakier by the minute. PBS put together this collection of his greatest hits—electric boats and sharks, included.
So what’s up with American voters? The easy answer is racism/sexism—and there is no denying the ‘white power’ appeals made by his supporters. Besides, the US economy is looking good—having beaten dire predictions of a recession.
The problem: While the big numbers are rosy, voters believe their own lives are far worse in Biden’s America:
The macro numbers on growth, and employment look good, and the Democrats keep touting them. But people don’t care about GDP or the national jobless rate. They care that they’re paying so much more for groceries than four years ago, that they can’t afford to buy a first home because mortgage rates are so high, or afford a car loan to replace the beat-up model in the driveway, or that they have no savings and need to work two jobs to get by.
The poll numbers speak for themselves:
In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 40% of voters approved of President Biden’s performance, and only 28% said the country was heading in the right direction. No party has retained control of the White House when so many Americans were dissatisfied with the country or the president.
The big picture: Liberalism itself is on the wane in America—with more voters identifying themselves as Republicans. Nate Cohn argues that the only reason this election is close is because Trump is such a dumpster fire. Here’s the bit few liberals want to say out loud: A strong conservative candidate would have walloped Harris.
Even a Dem victory won’t stem the drift to the right:
But even if Kamala Harris emerges as the winner, it will not necessarily be a victory for progressives. More than at any time over the last 16 years, Democrats are playing defense on the issues. They’ve moved to the right on immigration, energy and crime. They de-emphasized the traditional liberal push to expand the society safety net, which was eclipsed by the urgency to reduce prices. Whatever the outcome, a long period of liberal ascendancy in American politics might be waning.
Coming up next: Mapping the yuddh bhoomi: swinging states and swinging voters; minorities that matter (hello, Hindus)—and the battle to weaponize young men to beat women voters.
Reading list
Al Jazeera offers a basic overview of Election Day. The Independent has a good explanation of how the results are announced. The Guardian breaks down the electoral college—and why it causes such chaos. Nate Cohn in the New York Times (splainer gift link) is a must-read—even if you disagree with him. For more on the polls, read BBC News. For a more interesting take on the bettors on Wall Street, check out Financial Review and Fortune.
