The TLDR: Joe Biden is in good shape at the end of Thursday. He is ahead in most of the key remaining states. Two of Donald Trump’s lawsuits have fizzled out—but that hasn’t stopped him from making a grand speech claiming, "This is a case where they're trying to steal an election, they're trying to rig an election, and we can't let that happen." But why in the world is this election so close? We explain.

Photo credit: This very amusing lead image is courtesy @TreasuryMog.

First, the numbers

The electoral college votes are unchanged (Biden, 264; Trump, 214) as no state declared a winner yesterday. But more votes have been counted, and Biden appears to be well-placed to win at least one—which is all he needs to do in order to get to the winning 270 total.

Pennsylvania: Trump's lead narrowed to 65,000 votes as of Thursday evening. At least 255,000 mail ballots remain to be counted. Why Biden is confident: most of the mail ballots were requested by Democrats. Electoral votes in play: 20.

Georgia: Trump’s lead has shrunk to less than 3,500 votes. According to FiveThirtyEight, there are now about 19,000 votes left to count in Georgia, and Biden needs to win by 19%. The reason the margin is shrinking: Most of these late votes are from heavily Black parts of the state like Atlanta. Electoral votes in play: 16. (Note: if the margin is extremely thin then there will be a recount)

North Carolina: Trump leads by 76,000 votes, but the state still has 156,000 uncounted ballots. Electoral votes in play: 15.

Nevada: As per the latest official update, Biden’s lead expanded to 13,000 votes. While more than 100,000 votes remain to be counted, a local election expert says that the remaining vote will favor Biden and that he sees “no path left for Trump.”

Point to note: Trump is ahead in Alaska—which he is expected to win. He is also ahead in Arizona. But many news outlets have already called this one for Biden, including Fox News—much to Trump’s great fury.

The red to blue shift: in late counting is not due to a nefarious plot to steal the election. It reflects the party divide between who chose to mail in their ballots (mostly Democrats) vs who voted in person on Election Day (mostly Republicans). As FiveThirtyEight explains, it also reflects which votes were counted first. In some states, they started counting mail ballots long before Election Day. In other states, the in-person votes on Election Day were counted first instead: 

“In states where early and absentee votes were counted first, such as Ohio and Kansas, there was a ‘red shift’ as Election Day ballots were added to the total, while in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where early and absentee votes were not counted in advance, there was a ‘blue shift’ once those votes were added to the tallies of Election Day ballots.”

The lawsuits

At least two key lawsuits filed by Trump have fizzled out. A Michigan court threw out a lawsuit demanding that all counting must stop because the Republican observers do not have "meaningful access" to the actual counting of state ballots. A similar lawsuit in Pennsylvania has resulted in a compromise on the number of observers who can be present in the room. And the third lawsuit in Georgia has also been dismissed. All three were attempts to stop the counting of votes. 

Still possible: A legal challenge in Nevada and, of course, the Supreme Court. That one will hinge on last-minute help offered to help voters fix errors in their ballot in Pennsylvania. The Conversation explains why the court is highly unlikely to intervene—and even more so if Biden seals the win with one of the other states.

Why is this so close?

Well, it isn’t if you see it in terms of just votes. According to polling guru Nate Silver’s latest prediction, Biden will finally win with 81.8 million votes compared to 74.9 million for Trump—that’s a margin of 6.9 million votes!

And yet, Biden’s path to the presidency still hangs in balance. Why is that?

The electoral college: is the most obvious culprit, so to speak. And here’s how it works. Every state gets one elector per each member in Congress from its state—both in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Now, the number of House Reps a state sends to Congress is tied to its population, but the number of senators is not. Every state gets two Senate seats irrespective. As Quartz explains:

“In particular, voters in less populous states, such as Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming, have significantly more power than those in more populous states such as California, Florida, and Texas.

 

In California, for example, there are about 546,000 voters per elector. In Wyoming there are only 149,000. Thus, an individual vote in Wyoming carries about 3.7 times more weight in choosing who ultimately becomes president. Because less populous states also tend to be more rural, this effectively diminishes the power of urban voters.”

And since many of these states also tend to be more conservative in present-day America, Dems have a harder time crafting a path to victory in the electoral college. 

Map to note: In terms of actual voters, the US is far bluer than it seems. For example, the election map from 2016 is a sea of red if you represent it in terms of state territories—and vast swathes of empty land are painted red. What it hides: the far smaller number of people who actually live and vote in these states. So Belgian designer Karim Douïeb created an electoral map that represents the people who actually live in these states. And look at the difference:

The bottomline: There is practically zero chance that the electoral college will be abolished since it requires a constitutional amendment. But it has only become a problem in recent decades as America has grown increasingly and bitterly divided—between die-hard red and blue states. As long as those fault lines remain sharply drawn, every presidential election will come down to a handful of electors.

Also this: The end of Trump’s presidency will not sadly put an end to his toxic brand of politics. But more on that on Monday—by when this election drama should have come to an end 🤞🏾.

Reading list

• This Conversation op-ed by a legal expert explains why the Supreme Court is unlikely to come to Trump’s rescue. See also: Bloomberg News via The Print on Trump’s legally vacuous lawsuits.
• The Atlantic on why Trump can’t stop the counting thanks to the US’ chaotic federal system.
• Aditya Srinivasan in The Bastion offers an intriguing explanation for Trump’s great appeal. Hint: He’s a giant baby, and that’s actually a plus for him.
• This searing Guardian op-ed lays the blame for the narrow election on an abysmal lack of Democratic leadership.
• Daily Mail spotlights a particularly ugly Trump supporter who spit on cops. Er, she’s Indian American. Just saying, all NRIs aren’t Sundar Pichai lol!
• AJ Plus’s fun video captures the frantic activity in Kamala Harris’ ancestral village.
• Two fun things: One: Eva Victor’s vid mocking hapless news anchors with nothing new to say. Two: This hilarious only-in-India moment on Twitter.
• Last not least, our previous explainers on this interminable election are here and here.