The TLDR: The United States will hold its 59th election tomorrow, and the stakes have never been higher—or the outcome more uncertain. Thanks to the virus and the current president’s personality, all sorts of unprecedented doomsday scenarios are now in play. Think of the virus, Donald Trump’s personality and the quirks of the US electoral system as dominoes in a row. The big fear is that each will trigger the other, creating a perfect tsunami of political chaos bordering on a civil war.

The virus

The pandemic changed everything including how easy it is to cast your vote. Thanks to social distancing and fears of infection, many voters have opted for either a) mailing in their ballots or b) voting early at the booth. 

All of which would be just fine except for the following factors:

One: The worrying state of the US postal service. The once highly reliable USPS has been under severe pressure after its chief—a big Trump supporter—suddenly announced cost-cutting measures, including dialing back delivery services. The agency finally had to back down after a flurry of lawsuits. But the delivery times are still below average—especially in states that will be key to the outcome. By October 27, it was already too late to mail in your ballot. 

Two: Anxious about whether the mail-in ballots will reach in time, both Dems and Republicans began urging their supporters to vote early and in person. The result: extremely long lines and tech glitches—all of which led to claims of voter suppression. The reason: even though the number of voters have increased in recent years, many state governments have been cutting the number of polling places—especially in minority areas.

Three: The virus may also give Joe Biden a last minute push since numbers are surging in key swing states like Wisconsin—where the total has jumped 36%. The surge in Michigan: a whopping 73%. And Biden is way ahead in the polls in these states. Not helping: New data that shows Trump’s rallies infected 30,000 people and killed 700.

Point to note: Despite all this, more than 91 million Americans have already voted—that’s 65% of the total number of votes cast in 2016. And the overall voter turnout is poised to be one of the largest in US history.

The US electoral system

Quick reminder: Each state has a certain number of votes in the Electoral College which actually determines the winner of the election. If you win a state, you get its votes. But it also sets up a scenario like 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the majority of actual votes cast nationwide. But she still lost because the states that Trump won accounted for more electoral votes, giving him a winning total. So winning some states counts more than others under the US system. 

Back to the ballots: Ok, so 91 million ballots have already been cast. Now they have to be counted. But each state has its own rules for how and when it counts early voter ballots. Many start keeping score when the ballots are received. But others wait until Election Day to start tallying the votes. For example, Pennsylvania:

“The coronavirus pandemic has driven a record 2.6 million Pennsylvanians to request mail-in ballots. But state law bars the processing of those ballots until the morning of the Nov. 3 election. Before the counting can start, a cumbersome procedure is required to confirm each voter’s eligibility and extract every ballot from two envelopes.”

So it may take days for Pennsylvania’s votes to be counted. That delay will become critical in six key states that are expected to determine the outcome: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They account for 101 votes in the electoral college. The number required to win: 270. 

Enter Trump.

Donald Trump

The delay in counting votes means that we may not know the winner at the end of Election Day—opening the door to chaos, disinformation and paranoia, which are three of Trump’s favourite things. And both he and his campaign have already revealed a strategy that aims to exploit the madness uncertainty will bring—especially in a highly polarised election.

Intimidation and violence: Trump supporters have been on a rampage—targeting the Biden/Harris campaign. In one scary case, trucks carrying Trump supporters surrounded a campaign bus and tried to run it off the road. Trump later tweeted a clip of the incident, saying, “I LOVE TEXAS!” In a number of states, businesses are so worried about poll day violence that they plan to shut shop. And fears of widespread riots have sparked a big spike in gun purchases. 

According to a New York Times story based on unnamed Trump administration sources, a violent aftermath may be part of the plan:

“If the streets then fill with outraged people, he can easily summon, or prompt, or encourage troublemakers among his loyalists to turn a peaceful crowd into a sea of mayhem. They might improvise on their own in sparking violence, presuming it pleases their leader. If the crowds are sufficiently large and volatile, he can claim to be justified in responding with federal powers to bring order.”

Even an FBI official admits “all hands are on deck,” and the situation “feels pretty terrifying.”

Disinformation strategy #1: Don Jr. announced a campaign to recruit an ‘Army for Trump’—thousands of poll-watchers who will swarm voting booths looking for “evidence” of electoral fraud. These clips will then be used to both discredit a Biden win, and to file legal challenges in key swing states. According to one election disinformation expert:

“The goal here is really not producing evidence that stands up for any length of time. They’re interested in sowing just enough doubt … to develop this narrative of fraud—not only so that he can contest the election, not only so that he can refuse to concede a loss, but also so that some portion of his supporters will remain embittered and be able to say the results were illegitimate.”

Disinformation strategy #2: is called the ‘red mirage’, and this is how it would play out:

“On election night, there’s a real possibility that the data will show Republicans leading early, before all the votes are counted. Then they can pretend something sinister’s going on when the counts change in Democrats’ favor.” 

For example, slowpoke Pennsylvania could become the state that will determine the outcome, but Trump has a narrow lead without it at the end of Election Day. He immediately claims victory and refuses to concede when the final count shows that Biden won—claiming fraud in the counting of mail-in ballots.

Point to note: Trump is already saying “Bad things happen in Philadelphia,” and has warned about “tens of thousands of ballots being manipulated.” The Trump campaign is, in fact, relying on this exact scenario in other states as well:

“Trump advisers said their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night, depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after.”

The Supreme Court: In the end, any challenge of mail-in ballots will end up in the Supreme Court—which is now stuffed to the gills with Trump appointees, including the latest entrant, Amy Coney Barrett. No one knows how they will rule as yet, but Trump has already cheerfully declared, “I think this will end up in the Supreme Court.”

The bottomline: The only scenario that will put an end to this madness is a decisive win for either candidate—preferably Biden since four more years of Trump is hardly a recipe for sanity.

Reading list

• The Atlantic has a long feature on Trump’s army of supporters and the role they will play in the coming days.
• New York Times has an eyebrow-raising piece sourced entirely from Trump officials worried about what their President will do on Election Day. Also in NYT: The Democrats’ ‘doomsday scenario’.
• The Guardian explains the ‘red mirage’ strategy.
• MIT Technology Review looks at five recent Supreme Court rulings to decode which way it might swing. For another take: check out Vox’s analysis of Brett Kavanaugh who may hold the key.
• Can Trump still win? Vox explains why a Trump victory is unlikely but not impossible.
• Some pollsters—who got it right last time—say other surveys have it completely wrong. Politico has more on the ‘shy’ Trump voter.
• Bloomberg News explains why it is unlikely that pollsters will repeat their 2016 mistake.