Editor’s note: We have extensively tracked the Russia vs Ukraine conflict since December. If you need more context, we highly recommend reading our Big Story on the historical roots of the conflict and this timely explainer on the effectiveness of economic sanctions, the return of the Cold War and what is driving Vladimir Putin.

Researched by: Sara Varghese

Where we are now…

The death toll: Ukraine claims that 2,000 civilians have been killed—as have 6,000 Russian soldiers. Russia says that its number of dead is only 498 plus 1,597 injured. The UN puts the civilian casualty count at 227 killed and 525 injured. Expect these tallies to vary wildly as the war rolls on.

Also this: A second Indian student—22-year-old Chandan Jindal from Punjab—died in Ukraine, but from suffering a stroke not from shelling.

The refugees: The UN count of the number who have fled the country is now 870,000.

The Indian students: Here’s the latest on the 7,000-8,000 Indians still stranded in Ukraine:

• PM Modi spoke to President Putin about the safe evacuation of students. Putin said all necessary instructions have been given to ensure their safe passage—but accused Ukraine of blocking their exit and using students as human shields. 
• Also not helpful: The Indian Embassy’s directive to all students to leave the Kharkiv asap and head to nearby cities on foot, if required. The students are furious at the government’s tendency to issue orders at the last minute. 
• One sign of hope: Moscow is working on a humanitarian corridor that will let them cross to safety via the Russian border.
• Meanwhile, the Indian embassy has moved out of Kyiv to the city of Lviv—and will direct the evacuation from there.

The state of the invasion: The Russians have seized the first major city, Kherson—which is a strategic port in the south. Why this matters:

“Capturing Kherson could clear the way for Russian forces to push westward toward Odessa—a much bigger prize—as they try to seize Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coast, cutting it off from world shipping.”

Also in the crosshairs: The port of Mariupol—whose capture would link Russian forces in Crimea with separatists in the Donbass region. This in turn will leave Ukrainian troops in the region trapped in a pincer movement. New York Times explains why the move to control the south is significant—while the world focuses on cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv in the north.

That monster convoy: stationed outside Kyiv has not moved. US officials claim it has “stalled”—but no one knows for sure. For now, the Russians are focusing on intense shelling of Kharkiv and Kyiv. And there are now reports of paratroopers landing in Kharkiv.

Map to note: Here’s the state of play: 

Peace negotiations: were cancelled on Wednesday as the two sides could not agree on a location—and have now been scheduled for today. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said there can be no meaningful talks until the bombing stops.

Meanwhile, in the rest of the world…

At the United Nations: The General Assembly voted overwhelmingly for a resolution condemning the invasion—and called for the immediate withdrawal. The final tally: 141 of the 193 member states voted for the resolution, 35 abstained, and five voted against. Those who voted ‘no’ alongside Russia: Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. The abstentions included India—along with almost all countries in South Asia—and, of course, China. The resolution is not legally binding, but is considered a diplomatic win for Ukraine. 

In Europe: 20 countries—most of whom are members of NATO or the European Union—are funnelling arms into Ukraine. NATO is also moving military equipment and as many as 22,000 more troops into member states bordering Russia and Belarus—as a form of deterrence. Key point to note:

“But whether European weaponry will continue to reach the Ukrainian battlefield in time to make a difference is far from certain. However proud Brussels is of its effort, it is a strategy that risks encouraging a wider war and possible retaliation from Mr Putin. The rush of lethal military aid into Ukraine from Poland, a member of NATO, aims, after all, to kill Russian soldiers.”

Bringing back bad memories: quotes like these from former US generals: “On NATO territory, we should be the Pakistan”—which supplied Afghan rebels during the Soviet occupation.

At the World Bank: It is preparing a $3 billion aid package to help Ukraine—including at least $350 million in immediate assistance.

About those oil prices: They have now surged past $113 per barrel for the first time in nearly 8 years. Inflation is already soaring in Europe—where consumer prices were 5.8% higher in February than a year earlier.

About China’s role: The White House shared western intelligence reports that show China knew of Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine—and asked it to hold off until the end of the Olympics. Beijing’s response: “These claims are speculation without any basis, and are intended to blame-shift and smear China.”

Looking ahead: What will/should India do?

New Delhi has been walking an uncomfortable diplomatic tightrope—trying to signal its sympathy for Kyiv while refusing to condemn the invasion. While we call this being “neutral,” Happymon Jacob in The Hindu rightly points out that it is “a subtle pro-Moscow position”—which explains why Russia is happy with our line. 

That said, India would be far happier sitting on the sidelines—and waiting for this wretched war to be over. But the reality is that the Russian invasion has irrevocably altered the world order. Irrespective of the outcome—whether Moscow prevails outright or is bogged down in a bloody occupation or retreats now or later—the post-Cold War consensus built around globalisation is at an end. So where are we and what are our options?

Where we are: Let’s be clear. New Delhi’s biggest problem is not Russia but China—which is pressing down on our borders and cosying up to Pakistan. It’s the reason we are closer than ever to the US—working more closely to blunt an increasingly powerful Beijing through alliances such as the Quad (explained here). As Jacob points out, the navies offered by the Quad are essential to challenge China in the Indo-Pacific ocean. But Russia is essential to rein in China on land:

“Moscow may or may not be able to moderate Chinese antagonism towards New Delhi, but an India-Russia strategic partnership may be able to temper New Delhi’s growing isolation in a rather friendless region… Russia, to put it rather bluntly, is perhaps India’s only partner of consequence in the entire Asian continental stretch.”

Key insight to note: The Russian invasion has immeasurably strengthened China—ensuring the US and its allies are distracted and stretched:

“The crisis in Eastern Europe will benefit China as it is likely to keep the U.S. bogged down in Europe. It will force the US to shift focus from the Indo-Pacific to Europe. A situation that benefits China is not in India’s interest, especially in the context of their increasingly hostile relationship.”

So what should we do? Pick a trusted friend like Moscow or our new BFF Washington? The answers are not easy to formulate, let alone execute. We leave you to draw your conclusions, but here are some ways to look at this mess:

Tried & tested is best: We have a long-standing friendship with Russia that has stood the test of the Cold War and its aftermath. Moscow stood by us for decades while Washington poured arms and money into Pakistan. Even in recent decades, US presidents have refused to punish Islamabad’s support for terrorism despite the 9/11 attacks and the safe harbour given to Osama bin Laden. 

OTOH, Russia has given us what we need most: weapons to defend ourselves from hostile neighbours. About 65% of arms transferred to India between 1950 and 2020 were from the Soviet Union or Russia, an estimated $83.4 billion of a total $126.7 billion. Moscow has now signed a deal to supply us with the state-of-the-art S-400 Triumf missile defence system—which is critical to our defence.

Point to note: India has long viewed the US as a fickle and unreliable ally—whose foreign policy tends to shift in line with its volatile domestic politics. It’s the reason why New Delhi’s attitude toward the Quad has been cautious—despite fears of Beijing’s intentions. A multipolar world with a strong Russia is a better and safer bet. As one analyst puts it: “No one else is going to give you a nuclear submarine. Who else is going to sell India an aircraft carrier?”

The big picture: It was hard to miss Imran Khan’s visit to Russia on the eve of invasion—the first by a Pakistan PM in 23 years. It is not in New Delhi’s interest to push Moscow closer to either Islamabad or Beijing—and make it the third partner in a dangerous troika. As Venkatesh Varma puts it bluntly in Indian Express:

“We owe answers to no one except ourselves… Russia has not covered itself in glory. But that is no reason to doubt the merits of our long-standing relations with it—just as we held our noses and deepened our relations with the US during its decade-long intervention in Iraq.”

Russia is already lost: Others argue that there is nothing India can do to stop Russia’s headlong rush into China’s arms—and the love affair has alarmingly intensified over the past year. A recent joint Xi-Putin joint statement declared: “friendship between the two states has no limits, there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation… the new relations between Russia and China are superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era.”

Hence, Harsh Pant in ORF Online argues:

“The China-Russia entente is blossoming into a full-fledged strategic partnership… and after the Ukraine invasion, Vladimir Putin’s need for Xi Jinping’s support is only going to grow manifold. Despite India’s historic ties with Russia, Moscow has been more vocal than even China in showcasing its opposition to the Indo-Pacific construct and the Quad platform. Russia has even begun to flirt with Pakistan.”

Also this: Whether Russia wins in Ukraine or not, we now have a Russia-China alliance in direct opposition to a US-led world order. Moscow will also become more dependent than ever on Beijing to rescue its battered economy—for which the latter is guaranteed to extract a price:

"After the dust settles, the Russia-China alliance will emerge tighter than before, coordinating their actions and policies including in India’s backyard. As the rising power, and the actor more entrenched in the global system, Beijing will have more heft in influencing Moscow’s policy. This may mean, for example, Russia no longer feeling obligated to honour India’s request of not arming Pakistan."

FYI: Khan prominently raised the issue of Kashmir in his meeting with Putin.

Point to note: The US has been careful not to openly pressure India to oppose the invasion—though there have been plenty of backroom conversations. And it has not threatened any consequences for taking its present stance either.

The big picture: According to Pant, the reality is that our shared interests are now drifting further and further apart—while our convergence with the West is growing both in economic and strategic terms (i.e. China). And the best way to move forward is to reduce our dependence on Moscow—presumably with Uncle Sam’s help. Or as Deepa Pal puts it in BloombergQuint:

"What India, therefore, needs to consider is if its response is calibrated to signal that it understands the inevitable turn of history. And that wherever India’s future lies, it cannot be in the world that is envisaged by China with Russia by its side… At worst, it may even mean a hard break with history—an end to one of the most significant special relationships that India has had for half a century."

One key point to note: Irrespective of their disagreements, almost all Indian experts agree that no good can come out of India supporting gross violations of Ukraine’s sovereignty. It is difficult to argue for a “rules-based” order in the Indo-Pacific if it won’t stand up for the same principles elsewhere. And that path leads down to the same untenable hypocrisy of Nehru’s government at the height of the Cold War—when we spoke up against Vietnam but refused to say a word about the invasion of Czechoslovakia. New Delhi must find a way to make its position crystal-clear—be it by speaking up against the invasion or persuading its Russian friend to back down.

The bottomline: The world is turning. India must turn, as well—though in what direction remains to be seen.

Reading list

• Happymon Jacob in The Hindu does a fantastic job of analysing India’s position.
• Indian Express has two very good, duelling op-eds on India’s stance by C Raja Mohan and DB Venkatesh Varma—but both require a premium subscription.
• Deepa Pal & Shibani Mehta in BloombergQuint and Harsh Pant in ORF Online make an excellent case for turning away from Moscow.
• Sudha Ramachandran in The Diplomat explains why “neutrality” in the face of invasion will hurt India.
• Manjaree Chatterjee Miller in Foreign Affairs makes a case for a more proactive approach—aimed at persuading Moscow to back down.
• BBC News, Deutsche Welle and Washington Post offer good overviews on India’s relationship with Russia.