Editor’s note: We have extensively tracked the Russia vs Ukraine conflict since December. If you need more context, we highly recommend reading our Big Story on the historical roots of the conflict and this timely explainer on the effectiveness of economic sanctions, the return of the Cold War, what is driving Vladimir Putin, and India’s “balancing act.”

Researched by: Sara Varghese

Where we are now…

About those peace talks: The second round of talks secured an important agreement between Moscow and Kyiv to create “humanitarian corridors”—which will allow civilians to flee to safety. There was also talk of a “possible temporary ceasefire during evacuations”—but it is unclear how this would work and where these corridors would be located. They also agreed to hold a third round of negotiations soon. 

Point to note: None of this means that President Putin has softened his stance—as he made clear in a call with French President Macron:

“Putin stuck by his demands for the ‘demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine,’ which he said would be accomplished ‘whatever happens,’ the Kremlin noted. If Kyiv won’t cut a deal, Putin added, Russia will only add to its demands.” 

Not on the cards: any direct conversation between Presidents Biden and Putin.

The death toll: remains hazy. The UN says it can confirm 249 civilian deaths—but given the extent of Russian shelling on residential and public buildings that number is likely a significant underestimate.

The refugees: The number has now topped one million within just seven days. The tally amounts to a little more than 2% of the country’s total population. The UN expects the number will surge to four million. This is Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II.

The students: An Indian Air Force plane carried students back home from Bucharest, Romania. The ministers sent to supervise the return have turned the occasion into a PR spectacle for the government and the PM. For example, this cringe-inducing (and kinda funny) clip of deputy defence minister Ajay Bhatt on the IAF plane:

Also making the rounds, this clip of union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia being schooled by the mayor of Snagov in Romania—for talking about transporting pets home instead of showing gratitude for the host country:

And this illustration was shared by union minister Piyush Goyal. No, this is not fake news:

Not helping matters: Putin’s decision to add his spin on the plight of stranded Indians. He claimed that more than 3,000 of them are being held hostage at the Kharkiv train station. A charge that New Delhi was quick to deny: “We note that with the cooperation of the Ukrainian authorities, many students have left Kharkiv yesterday. We have not received any reports of any hostage situation regarding any student.” 

Data point to note: As this Mint chart shows, India accounts for the largest number of students—by a mile. 

The state of the invasion: Russians continued to attack cities across Ukraine—targeting apartment buildings, pharmacies and a hospital. Their biggest advances have been in the south. Troops have encircled Mariupol—destroying rail lines and bridges, and cutting off food and water supplies. This also allows the Russians to isolate and trap the Ukrainian troops in the region.

Still stalled: That scary 65-km convoy just outside Kyiv—likely due to “staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion.” CNN explains why this makes the Russians a sitting target—and will likely affect troop morale.

The city to watch: Odessa, a major port on the Black Sea. The city is getting ready to mount a defence amid reports that a large fleet of Russian warships is heading toward the waters off the coast. Why this matters: “Russia’s goal was likely to surround Odessa with land and naval forces, cutting off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea and the country’s primary link to the global economy.”

The nuke scare: Ukrainians claim that Russian shelling caused a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—which is the largest in Europe and houses six of the country’s 15 reactors. They say elevated levels of radiation have already been detected at the site. Ukraine has asked the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to declare a 30km safe zone around its four nuclear power plants. Point to note: Moscow is already in control of the Chernobyl plant. In recent days, crowds of Ukrainians gathered to block the troops’ access to the power plant in Zaporizhzhia. Watch it below:

Map to note: This is the current state of play:

Meanwhile, in the rest of the world…

Here come more sanctions: The US took aim at Russian billionaires and close friends of Putin, saying: “We want (Putin) to feel the squeeze, we want the people around him to feel the squeeze.” The list is basically in line with those targeted by the EU earlier. Meanwhile, the Paralympics Winter Games being held in Beijing banned all Russian and Belarus athletes—after first claiming that they had “no option” but to allow their participation.

A rush for the EU: Georgia and Moldova—which were former Soviet republics like Ukraine—have also applied for fasttrack membership in the EU. This creates an awkward situation for the Europeans for several reasons:

• Balkan countries have already been waiting for nearly 18 years for membership—including Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. They will be very unhappy with this blatant queue-cutting.
• EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has encouraged Ukraine to join, calling it “one of us”—which makes it hard to say no to Georgia and Moldova. They too cite the fear of Russian invasion.
• Some EU members worry these nations “lack the economic clout, democratic values and rule of law credentials to maintain unity.” 
• And then there is the ugly business of raising hopes that you cannot possibly fulfil.

Human rights investigation: The International Criminal Court has launched a war crimes investigation into the Russian invasion. The chief prosecutor said he will begin work “as rapidly as possible” to look for possible crimes against humanity or genocide. 

Something to see: The Economist’s latest cover. You can read the story here: 

Reading the tea leaves: US-India relationship woes

India has steadfastly refused to directly condemn the Russian invasion—abstaining from multiple UN resolutions that did so. This despite intense, behind-the-scenes pressure from the US. While neither Biden nor Modi have commented publicly on the fraying relations, some of the tensions bubbled to the surface yesterday—and were just as quickly swept away. Yes, all this in 24 hours.

A very cranky cable: Diplomatic cables are closely vetted by State Department officials before being cleared for distribution to embassies around the world. So it was noteworthy when the department recalled a cable instructing officials how to lean on India and the UAE—right before a vote at the General Assembly. It suggests using fairly harsh language:

“Continuing to call for dialogue, as you have been doing in the Security Council, is not a stance of neutrality; it places you in Russia’s camp, the aggressor in this conflict. We strongly encourage you to take the opportunity to support Ukraine in the HRC [Human Rights Council], an opportunity you failed to seize in the UNSC [United Nations Security Council].”

The State Department later said: “The language in question was never intended for clearance and the cable was released in error, which is why it was recalled.” What’s interesting to note: UAE changed its position and voted in favour of the GA resolution while India continued to abstain.

Meanwhile at Congress: the assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs Donald Lu testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was asked about possible sanctions on India for doing business with Russia—specifically whether New Delhi will be given a waiver for its deal to buy an S-400 Triumf missile defence system from Russia. His response:

“It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions.”

That answer has been interpreted as a ‘maybe in foreign media, but as a ‘no’ by the Indian press. 

What’s more striking: are Lu’s later remarks. He goes on to say there has been an “evolution” of New Delhi’s position—pointing to its recent statements emphasising territorial integrity and sovereignty. And Lu also flags “the cancellation of MiG 29 orders, Russian helicopter orders and anti-tank weapon orders”—noting “it is going to be very hard for any country in the globe to buy major weapon systems from Russia because of the sweeping sanctions now placed on Russian banks.”

And then he goes on to indicate that the US is seriously evaluating the transfer of advanced defence technology to India—and adds this:

“He said the sanctions would provide ‘an opportunity’ for the US and other countries that export advanced military technology ‘to go after new markets to make sure we’re not only selling the high end, we’re selling the middle and low end as well’.

 

‘If I was a consumer right now of Russian technology, I would want to make sure that I have diversity, because we will see a problem for Russia’s customers in securing reliable supplies,’ said Mr Lu.” 

Reading between the lines: Washington will likely take a carrot approach to wean India off Russian weaponry—and seize the opportunity offered by Russia’s isolation. Of course, it remains to be seen whether New Delhi will bite. 

Back together again! But all this reading of omens became moot last night—when the Quad held an unscheduled emergency meeting attended by the heads of state. The alliance—which consists of India, US, Japan and Australia—issued a joint statement that clearly indicated that New Delhi’s position has been accepted (for now). Point to note: India is the only country that has not called out Russia.

The statement made no mention of the Russian invasion—and instead referred to the “ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.” There was no talk of punishing Moscow and ended on an amicable agreement:

“They agreed to stand up a new humanitarian assistance and disaster relief mechanism which will enable the Quad to meet future humanitarian challenges in the Indo-Pacific and provide a channel for communication as they each address and respond to the crisis in Ukraine.”

Most importantly for India: The joint statement reaffirmed the focus on China as the primary threat—underlining their “commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.” And as Deccan Herald notes:

“The very fact that both Biden and Modi shared the Quad platform to discuss the issue of Ukraine, at the end of which a joint readout was issued, is reflective of the fact that the two countries can sit and talk on issues like this. The joint statement in itself is a message. The meeting also puts to rest questions like what happens to the Indo-Pacific and Quad in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis.”

The bottomline: Well, the course of true love never did run smooth.

Reading list

Deccan Herald and Indian Express analyse the outcome of the Quad meeting. Axios has more on the leaked US cable. The Atlantic explains the significance of Chernobyl—which became a rallying point for the independence movement after the disaster in 1986. The Guardian looks at why the IAEA is worried about the nuclear reactors. BBC News has more on why so many Indian students end up in Ukraine. Also in BBC News: Evidence of Russians using cluster bombs—which would constitute a war crime.