Researched by: Sara Varghese 

How bad is it right now?

If you’re asking that question then you likely don’t live in either the northern or western parts of the country. Here’s how hot it is:

• Since March, there have been four heat waves—and 26 days of scorching temperatures. The first of these hit on March 11—and the last is still underway. 
• The maximum temperatures in March were the highest in 122 years.
• The north and the west are the most affected regions. Temperatures in Rajasthan and Maharashtra have ranged between 40°C-45°C—and many cities this week registered highs over 42.8°C. 
• The highest reliably recorded temperature: 48.3°C in Barmer, Rajasthan. 
• Delhi, of course, is sweltering. The average temperature was 37.7°C on 23 out of 25 days this month—reaching a peak of 42.2°C on April 19. 
• Data to note: The temperature in Delhi is 4.8°C higher than normal!
• Also notable: Himalayan states—which are not in the Core Heatwave Zone—were exceptionally warm this year. Himachal Pradesh experienced 21 heat wave days—hitting 42.5°C in places—while temperatures in Ladakh went as high as 22.6°C.

Point to note: Thanks to soaring temperatures, the demand for electricity—think, air conditioning—is also sky-rocketing, creating severe shortages. There have been massive power cuts as demand outstripped supply. And the heat will also affect the current wheat harvest—right when Indians are dealing with rising food inflation (explained here).

Maps to note: Here’s the stark difference between March 2021 and March 2022:

And here’s a gif of recorded temperatures in India between April 24-27:

What lies ahead: Sadly, there is no sign of relief in sight. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued an alert for five states—Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, UP and Odisha—which have recorded over 45°C. Those conditions are expected to hold up until the first week of May—when rains may bring some relief. Here’s a gif of regions that will experience 40°C-plus temperatures over the coming days:

Definition to note: The IMD declares a heat wave when the maximum temperature reaches 40°C in the plains, 37°C along the coast, and 30°C in the hills.

So wtf is happening? Climate change, right?

Yes, if you look at the big picture (more on that later). But here are the short-term triggers for this extreme heat. 

One: Anticyclones in western India. These are areas of high atmospheric pressure where the air sinks rather than rises. This in turn means no clouds or rain are formed—leading to hot, dry weather. These typically emerge only in mid-April, but appeared in mid-March this year.

Two: No pre-monsoon rain. It has been unusually dry across India—and the amount of rainfall in March was 70.7% lower than normal. Pre-monsoon rain is caused by western disturbances—storms originating in the Mediterranean region—which remained weak this year. The next western disturbance is expected on May 2—and will hopefully bring relief.

Three: La Niña. This is a weather pattern formed when the temperatures of parts of the Pacific Ocean cool down—and is the opposite of its twin El Niño. This has a knock-on effect on weather around the world—because it affects the movement of trade winds. It typically forms over the winter, and brings wet and cold winters in India. 

This year La Niña has persisted into spring—and is interacting with waves of warm air from the Arctic—which has experienced an exceptionally hot winter. The result is hot, dry weather—and it may explain the rise of anticyclones. But the slightly better news is that La Niña is now expected to persist up to August—and give us a normal-to-above normal monsoon.

As for climate change: All of the above are just symptoms of a planet that is heating up thanks to human activity. And almost every climate change report indicates that India will bear the brunt of this global warming in the form of increasing heat waves. It’s already happening: The number of extremely hot days each year has been rising with each decade—jumping from 413 in 1981-90 to 575 in 2001-10 and 600 in 2011-20.

The future looks just as dismal. In 2020, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) released the first-ever report looking at the impact of climate change on Indian weather and here’s what it found:

• If we do absolutely nothing to curb carbon emissions, our average temperature will increase by 2.7ºC in the next 50 years—and hit 4.4ºC by the end of this century! 
• With moderate curbs on emissions, the temperature will still rise by an average of 2ºC by 2069—and hit 2.4ºC by 2099. 
• So unless there are dramatic interventions, we will blow past that 2ºC threshold faster than the rest of the world. 

Point to note: The warmest day and coldest night by 2100 will be 4.7°C and 5.5°C warmer, respectively.

The bottomline: Almost half of India’s working-age population slaves in fields outdoors. And construction work is the second-largest source of employment in the country. This doesn’t include the rickshaw-walas, street vendors and so many others who—unlike us—can’t afford to turn on the AC and complain about the weather.

Reading list

Washington Post, Indian Express and BBC News offer the best overviews. The Print looks at the effects of the rising heat on the average Indian. Down To Earth looks at rising temperatures ravaging the Himalayas. Firstpost and Hindustan Times link the heat waves to climate change. The Wire looks at the future of heat waves in India. We did a two-part explainer on the effects of climate change in India. The first looked at the findings of the 2020 government report. The second looked at what the government is doing—or not doing—to tackle climate change.