The TLDR: As we noted last week, the government’s own assessment concludes that India will be uninhabitable very soon due to severe climate change. But the same government is ignoring its own predictions—and its behaviour in recent months offers great cause for worry.

Where we are headed

To recap last week’s explainer, the first-ever assessment of India’s climate change future offers a bleak forecast: If we do absolutely nothing to curb carbon emissions, our average temperature will increase by 2.7º C in the next 50 years—and hit 4.4º C by the end of this century! 

As ProPublica notes, by 2100, temperatures could rise to the point that just going outside for a few hours in parts of India “will result in death even for the fittest of humans.” Also: “heat waves and humidity will become so extreme there that people without air conditioning will simply die.” Yeah, it’s grim.

Where we were: March 2020

Our carbon footprint: India is #3 in the world in terms of our carbon emissions—behind the US and China. We are the second-largest consumer of coal—which generates 76% of our electricity. 

Our green goals: We are on track to have 40% of our power generated by non-fossil fuels by 2030—more than a decade earlier than expected. Our emissions intensity at that time will be around 50% below 2005 level—far ahead of the 33-35% target.

OTOH: We rank #168 among 180 countries on the Environmental Performance Index. Seven of the ten most air polluted cities in the world are in India. The government has earned a reputation for prioritizing “dirty growth”—fast tracking development projects, weakening environmental protections, and mowing down forest cover and wildlife habitats. (IndiaSpend offers a detailed view of the government’s disastrous track record.)

On balance: India has scored big on solar and other alternative forms of energy, is increasingly bad at protecting green cover, and has entirely failed at controlling pollution.

Lock down, hit reverse

The pandemic pause: During the lockdown, India’s carbon emissions fell for the first time in four decades. The virus escalated an already weakening demand for coal and oil. More importantly, the use of alternative energy saw a slight uptick—because solar panels and wind turbines are far cheaper to operate than power plants.

The burdensome ‘relief’ package: A UK study rated economic relief packages announced by 17 governments on a ‘Green Stimulus Index’. Our Rs 20 lakh crore plan ranked #12—one notch below the United States, and two spots ahead of China. We scored (-)60 ‘brown’ points. Main reason: it privatised coal mining to boost production—“to make maximum coal available in the market at the earliest.” This even though the coal industry is debt-ridden and inefficient—while green energy is far cheaper and generates twice as many jobs.

The great EIA disaster: The Environment Impact Assessment defines the rules and process by which a proposed development project gets an environmental clearance. The government is working on a new EIA draft which proposes:

• Any project that is in violation of current environmental laws can get a clearance after it is caught red-handed. Such violations will receive minor financial penalties—and can only be reported by the government or the developers themselves (?!).
• Any project labelled ‘strategic’ will be exempt from an assessment of its environmental impact. But the draft does not specify any criteria for deciding what qualifies as ‘strategic’.
• Until now, buildings of 20,000 sq. metres or above required an environment clearance. That ceiling has been raised to 150,000—the size of an airport.
• Also exempt: all inland waterways projects and expansion/widening of national highways (many of which will run right through forest reserves).

Bullying the critics: The EIA draft is still open for public comment—and several environmental groups have sent thousands of emails pointing out its glaring flaws. The government’s response:

• The websites of three of the groups were mysteriously blocked—thanks to a complaint from the Environmental Minister himself. 
• One of the groups—Fridays For Future India—was charged under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). 
• The notice read: “The above website depicts objectionable contents and unlawful activities or terrorist act, which are dangerous for the peace, tranquillity and sovereignty of India.”
• The charges have since been dropped, and the Delhi police is now claiming a “clerical error.”
• FFF was then slapped with charges under Section 66 of the Information Technology Act for “sending too many emails" to the Minister. This too has been withdrawn.

Point to note: Experts have emphatically shown that the pandemic offers the perfect opportunity to walk away from coal. Betting on green energy will be much cheaper, create millions of jobs, and bring down pollution levels. Don’t believe the experts? How about opium farmers in Afghanistan? They have gone all in on solar and doubled the world production of heroin! 

The bottomline:  In any case, there is no long-term ‘tradeoff’ between economic recovery and environmental protection. Within a few decades, the effects of climate change—the droughts, floods and heat waves—will wipe out any short-term gains in our GDP. So what are we really saving and why?

Reading list

• Carbon Brief’s country profile offers an overview of India’s carbon footprint.
• For more on India’s opportunity for a green recovery, read Scroll’s deep dive, WRI’s 5-point guide and this ThirdPole op-ed.
• Washington Post’s long read explains why the world needs India to chart a carbon-free future.
• Down To Earth assesses the government’s various climate change missions—water, solar, Himalayan ecosystem etc—and offers specific recommendations to improve each.
• The Bastion has a must-read on the very real obstacles to climate action in a post-coronavirus world. 
• If you want to learn more about EIA, we highly recommend this Mint interview with conservation biologist Neha Sinha. It’s better than any explainer.
• ProPublica doesn’t focus on India, but its deep dive into climate refugees is a warning to all of us.
• To end on an upbeat note: Quint looks at a new slate of green groups in India who are using the internet to chalk some big wins.