The TLDR: Two different parts of the world are experiencing catastrophic (un)natural disasters: severe flooding in Henan, China; monster wildfires in Oregon, United States. Both have exactly the same cause: global warming. This is something you already know, but taken together they offer a powerful warning: extreme weather is the new normal for everyone, everywhere in the world.

A worldwide review of bad weather

Here’s what we’ve witnessed in just the past month:

Extreme heat: An unusual heat dome brought soaring temperatures to parts of Canada and western United States—which rarely see very hot weather. The Canadian town of Lytton reached 49.6°C (121.3°F) on June 29, almost 5°C higher than the previous record. Finland experienced the warmest June on record. The northeastern Siberian town of Verkhoyansk set a record for the highest temperature documented in the Arctic Circle, with a reading of 38°C in the same month. The first five months of 2020 were 5.3 degrees above normal in Russia—which is “the largest January-to-May temperature anomaly ever observed in any country's national average.” 

Catastrophic rain: Just last week, vast swathes of Western Europe were under water—with Germany bearing the brunt of severe flooding. The region received two months’ worth of rainfall in two days. At least 180 people were killed. On July 12, London experienced one month’s worth of rain in just one day. Last weekend, Mumbai reported 9 inches of rain in 24 hours—of which nearly 8 inches fell in just six hours. More than 30 people were killed.

Raging fires: There have been 200 forest fires in Siberia in recent months—caused by unusually frequent lightning strikes over the Arctic. Meteorologists were shocked last week when three successive thunderstorms swept across the region—generating massive lightning bolts. The reason: The air over the Arctic Ocean usually lacks the convective heat needed to generate lightning storms. Meanwhile, in the US, California is already on track for breaking last year’s record wildfire season—when around 4.1 million estimated acres were burned. As of July 13, fires had already scorched 142,477 acres in the state—which is 103,588 more acres than during the same time period last year. The reason: extreme drought that is causing hot and dry conditions ideal for fires.

In other words: The Henan floods and Oregon wildfires are just the latest in a series of weather-triggered disasters that now occur almost every week.

Sigh, tell me about Henan…

Around 100,000 people have been evacuated from the central Chinese city of Zhengzhou due to unprecedented flooding in the Henan province. The reason: torrential rains that have not been seen in 1,000 years. From Saturday to Tuesday, 617.1 mm (24.3 inches) of rain fell in Zhengzhou, almost the equivalent of its annual average of 640.8 mm (25.2 inches). At least 25 have been killed so far. As one resident put it: “Never in my life had I seen so much rain. There was one hour where the rain was just pouring down on us from the heavens, and everything went completely white.”

What it looks like: People were trapped in cars like this:

The streets looked like this:

And many were trapped in subways like this—of whom 12 died despite rescue efforts. A survivor later said: “I was really scared, but the most terrifying thing was not the water, but the diminishing air supply in the carriage.”

Point to note: A Global Times reporter offered this perspective on the sheer volume of rain: “In the past few days, Germany encountered the largest rainstorm recorded in 75 years. Cologne has 154 mm of rainfall in 24 hours (note: it is 24 hours!), while the rainfall in Zhengzhou today is 200 mm in 1 hour!”

Not just Henan: Torrential rain has become a problem across China:

“Hotan in the far-west region of Xinjiang saw record-breaking rainfall in June—and in Sichuan province, hundreds of thousands of residents had to be moved this month because of floods and landslides. Authorities also issued flood warnings Sunday for rivers in Guizhou, a province in southwest China.”

And last week, Greenpeace issued a report warning that the risk of extreme heat and rainfall is now highest in densely-populated city centres like Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, and Ningbo.

The climate change factor: Here’s why rising temperatures lead to flooding:

“More than 70% of the planet’s surface is water, and as the world warms, more water evaporates from oceans, lakes, and soils. Every 1°F rise also allows the atmosphere to hold 4% more water vapor. So when weather patterns lead to heavy rain, there is even more moisture available for stronger downpours, increasing the risk and severity of flooding.”

Therefore, seasonal rains like our monsoons can quickly turn catastrophic. Of course, we don’t improve matters with development projects that intensify the risk—as in Henan where widespread dam construction has disrupted flood plains that absorb the rainwater.

Point to note: Zhengzhou is a “sponge city”—where the Chinese government is implementing a major initiative to mitigate flooding by reducing concrete and restoring green spaces. And as recently as June, the state media reported that the city had eliminated more than 75% of its flood-prone points. But as one expert says: “It’s like a small sponge: If you pour a bowl of water, it can be absorbed. But if you pour a whole bucket, it cannot.” 

And what’s happening in Oregon?

It’s now called the Bootleg Fire, and it has scorched more than 606 square miles—an area larger than Los Angeles—across Oregon. It grew to more than 388,350 acres overnight from Monday to Tuesday and is only 30% contained. But it is only one of  eight large fires burning in Oregon—and of at least 83 burning across 13 states in the US. 

The immediate reason: 90% of Oregon is in either exceptional, extreme or severe drought conditions—which dries out the vegetation turning it into tinder: “The fire is burning ... dense fuels that are extremely dry from a prolonged drought. Up until today, the weather has been consistently hot, dry with near single-digit humidity.” It is possible another 50,000 to 100,000 acres could burn before the fire is contained.

How bad is it? The fire is so powerful that it is creating its own weather. Nearly every day the fire is creating “tall updrafts of hot air, smoke and moisture called pyrocumulus clouds, some of them reaching up to 30,000 feet.” When one of these collapses, the mass comes rushing down, forcing the air on the surface outwards—creating strong winds which then help spread the fire even further. And they generate their own lightning strikes that ignite new fires. A spokesperson for the forestry department said:

“The fire is so large and generating so much energy and extreme heat that it’s changing the weather. Normally the weather predicts what the fire will do. In this case, the fire is predicting what the weather will do.”

Also this: Smoke from the wildfires has extended right across the country to New York and Philadelphia. The air quality in the Big Apple is now among the worst in the world (See photos here). The satellite map below shows the unbelievable spread of the smoke:

What it looks like: You can see satellite imagery tracking the spread of the fire here—or just check out the scariest bit below:

The climate change factor: The wildfires are a knock-on effect of the heat dome that settled over most of the Pacific northwest—creating heatwaves and severe drought. A recent report—released by an international team of 27 climate scientists—showed that climate change made the heatwaves 150 times more likely, and 2°C (3.6° F) hotter. Those record-breaking temperatures in places like Lytton, Canada, would have been “virtually impossible” without global warming.

The scientists considered two theories for how it got this insanely hot:

“One explanation is that a combination of preexisting drought and unusual atmospheric conditions—a heat dome of warm air trapped in place by a bend in the jet stream—combined with climate change to drastically raise temperatures. ‘The statistical equivalent of really bad luck, albeit aggravated by climate change,’ the authors summarized.

 

An alternative, more troubling possibility is that the climate system may have already crossed a threshold where small amounts of warming push temperatures up faster than previously observed. If true, it would mean such record-breaking heat waves have already become more likely to happen than climate models predict.”

For now, scientists think theory #1 is more likely, but they cannot be sure if we have indeed crossed some kind of threshold. As one climate scientist says:

"What we are seeing is unprecedented. You're not supposed to break records by 4 or 5°C. This is such an exceptional event that we can't rule out the possibility that we're experiencing heat extremes today that we only expected to come at higher levels of global warming.”

The bottomline: Permanent climate change is not something that will occur tomorrow. It is already happening today… in almost every part of the world.

Reading list

LA Times offers a solid overview of how extreme weather has become the norm right now. Reuters and Washington Post have the best reporting on Henan. Fortune looks at the impact on a region that includes the world’s biggest iPhone production hub. CNN has a good overview of what is going on with the Bootleg Fire—while the New York Times explains how it is creating its own weather. Forbes and Deutsche Welle have alarming must reads on the report that explains why the US/Canada heatwaves were “virtually impossible” without global warming. The Guardian reports on the air quality in New York.