The ‘smile’-shaped happiness curve is collapsing

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

The ‘smile’-shaped happiness curve is collapsing

The context: For decades, happiness followed a predictable path. Think of it like a U-shaped curve—high when you’re young, dipping in midlife, and rising again in older age. It looks like a ‘smile’—like this 2012 world happiness graph:

The new study: The Global Flourishing Study—led by Harvard and Baylor University—surveyed over 200,000 people across 20+ countries. Published in Nature, it looked at whether people are “flourishing”—defined as “the relative attainment of a state in which all aspects of a person’s life are good, including the contexts in which that person lives.” That term covers five domains:

Happiness & life satisfaction
Mental & physical health
Meaning & purpose
Character & virtue
Close relationships

There's a sixth parameter called “secure flourish” that connotes financial stability—allowing a person to keep flourishing into the future.

The results: The survey found that young adults between the ages of 18 and 29 are no longer flourishing. Young adults used to represent the first “high point” on the happiness curve. Now? In Western countries like the UK, it looks more like the following graph. Also, in the following graphs, the numbers on the left represent the index measurement whereas the one on the bottom denote ages of population in each country.

In the United States, the curve is the steepest—with the greatest difference between the younger and older adults:

India (not) flourishing: India’s curve is even more dismal—peaking in youth and going steadily downhill from there—as you can see below:

Here’s what the data says about India:

Single people flourish more than married couples—the opposite of most other countries in the study.
Students flourished far more than employed people—so that first job may well be the first step down the curve.
‘Volitional well-being’ also decreased with age. This is the well-being produced by having greater agency over your own life. It usually increases when you become an adult—but in India, it goes downwards with age.

Point to note: We don’t have enough country-specific data to understand why the India curve slopes downwards.

What is ‘happiness’ anyway? There are a number of other surveys that measure well-being. But they each use different parameters and methodologies. They often produce contradictory results. Example: The latest Ipsos Happiness Index ranks India among the happiest out of 30 countries—but we ranked an abysmal #126 in the 2024 World Happiness Report. In 2023, Gallup measured the “emotional temperature” in 142 countries—based on simple ‘yes/no’ polling. We ranked high on smiling (77%) and low on anger (31%)—and only 26% said they were “stressed”.

Methodology samajhiye: These rankings are often criticised as biased in India. After all, Ukraine came in at #92 in the World Happiness Report—and it’s being bombed by Russians every day. Even Sri Lanka and Pakistan—teetering on the brink of economic catastrophe—ranked higher at #112 and #108, respectively.

Why does any of this matter? The ‘flourishing’ study suggests a dramatic generational shift—affecting Gen Z:

Young adulthood has long been considered a carefree time, a period of limitless opportunity and few obligations. But data from the flourishing study and elsewhere suggests that for many people, this notion is more fantasy than reality.

We also don’t know what the lifetime curve will look like for this generation—will it move upwards or remain relatively flat? And what does it suggest for young Indians—for whom life gets worse with age?

Reading list: New York Times (login required) and CNN have the reporting on the flourishing study, while Nature has the more nerdy details on India. Or you can check out the pdf version of the report. Our Big Story on the 2024 World Happiness Report is best on issues of methodology. We also did a two-part series on the world’s longest happiness study—which is 85 years old and claims to have discovered the secret recipe of the good life. See part 1 and part 2.

An epic ruling against Apple

The context: In 2020, Epic Games—maker of Fortnite—filed two separate lawsuits—one against Google and the other against Apple. It accused them of using their app stores to extract money from developers, cut secret revenue-sharing deals with companies—and squelch competitors. Epic won the case against Google in December 2023—forcing it to allow rival third-party app stores on Google Play.

But, but, but: Epic lost its lawsuit against Apple in 2021—even though its claims were identical. The judge, however, “ordered Apple to give people more ways to pay for things in its app store, not just through Apple's own payment processor, which can take a fee of up to 30% of the transaction.”

What happened next: Cut to April 2025. Epic argued in front of Judge Rogers that Apple has defied that order—and created a new kind of rigged system instead. It allowed people to use alternative payment options—but forced developers to pay a 27% commission on those purchases. Also this: “Apple created pop-up screens that discouraged customers from paying elsewhere, telling them that payments outside the App Store may not be secure.”

What happened now: The judge agreed that “Apple sought to maintain a revenue stream worth billions in direct defiance of this court’s injunction.” And she shot down the new system:

Apple is no longer allowed to collect fees on purchases made outside apps and blocks the company from restricting how developers can point users to where they can make purchases outside of apps.

Of course, Apple will appeal the order.

A Tim Cook problem: Turns out this decision to slyly flout the ruling was the CEO’s genius move. Not only did he approve the decision to squeeze 27% from developers, he “also asked that when people clicked on links to pay for apps outside the App Store they be shown a ‘scare’ screen saying ‘that Apple’s privacy and security standards do not apply to purchases made on the web’.” The most damning bit:

Apple knew the commission would be so high that external credit card processing fees would make the option unworkable for developers, the court says. And crucially, the court found the number was still based on nothing but Apple’s desire for profit. The company didn’t come up with an explanation of why its services were so valuable as to merit the fee.

Why this matters: This is a big win for small time developers—who have long been squeezed by App Stores. And it represents a loss of billions of dollars for Apple. The Verge has the best reporting on the lawsuit.

Say hello to Grand Slam Track!

Racetrack legend Michael Johnson has created an athletic league—which consists of four annual meets starring 48 of the best track athletes in the world. It actually launched in Jamaica last month (our bad for missing it!)—but is getting way more publicity with the second leg in Miami round the corner. How it works:

Each participant will run two races each weekend and their combined score gives a total Slam placing, which in turn decides the prize: $100,000 (£74,893) for a first-place finish down to $10,000 (£7,489) for eighth place. Athletes also receive business class travel, athlete support services, base compensation for participating and access to the GST content team who can help build the athlete’s brand by being part of a league.

Why do we need this? As Johnson rightly points out, track athletes only get attention during the Olympics. Despite their legendary achievements, they are underpaid—and have few opportunities to make money:

He saw the need for a system that gave athletes regular, meaningful exposure and fair rewards for their performances, not just a spotlight every four years. "We have athletes... who literally are taking on jobs at Walmart and suffering financially," Johnson said. "Then they look across to their counterparts in other sports and see someone signing a five-year, $100 million contract — and they wonder why not me?"

Athletic is paywalled, but Deutsche Welle also has deets on the league.

what caught our eye

business & tech

Airbus won’t foot the Trump-era tariff bill on jets headed to the US—setting up a clash with airlines unwilling to pay up.
Amazon’s latest AI flex? Nova Premier—a powerhouse model that reads text, images, and video, built for brainy, multi-step tasks.
US markets panicked over a shock 0.3% GDP contraction—then did a U-turn after realizing it was just a statistical blip caused by pre-tariff import stockpiling.

sports & entertainment

Kneecap’s Germany tour is off—after their anti-Israel message at Coachella and old clips calling to kill MPs resurfaced.
Martin Scorsese is producing ‘Aldeas—A New Story’, a doc backed by the late Pope Francis and rooted in his global education and cinema initiative.
Lorde is back—her fourth album ‘Virgin’ drops June 27, marking her first release since ‘Solar Power’ and featuring some eerie X-ray cover art.
Entertainment Weekly has an exclusive on how ‘Freakier Friday’ is flipping the script—director Nisha Ganatra says the sequel tackles and fixes the 2003 film’s “hurtful” Asian stereotypes head-on.
Robert De Niro isn’t making a fuss after his daughter recently came out as a transwoman—“I don’t know what the big deal is,” he said, adding he now loves Airyn, his daughter.
The much-anticipated Luka-LeBron era for the Lakers kicks off with a disappointing loss to the Timberwolves in the playoffs.
Rajasthan Royals join CSK in being eliminated from IPL playoff contention—after suffering a 100-run thrashing at the hands of red-hot Mumbai Indians. Also, teenage sensation Vaibhav Suryavanshi went from hero to heartbreak as he followed up his record-breaking T20 century with a two-ball duck.

health & environment

Semaglutide, the powerhouse behind Ozempic and Wegovy, is now showing major promise in treating severe liver disease, according to new clinical trial results.

meanwhile, in the world

New York Times (splainer gift link) has a good read on how today’s ultrathin beauty ideal is being sold as body positivity.
North Korea and Russia are building their first road link—cementing a growing alliance that’s already seen Pyongyang send ammo and troops to back Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna was tortured while in Russian captivity—according to a chilling new investigation by Forbidden Stories.
Five months after his arrest in Bangladesh for defaming the country’s national flag, Hindu leader Chinmoy Krishna Das has been granted bail by the High Court.
Al Jazeera has a good read on the murky $10bn backchannel trade between India and Pakistan—and whether it can survive the latest round of border closures and diplomatic blowups.
Also from Al Jazeera: An explainer on the US-Ukraine minerals deal, where a new investment fund will back Ukraine’s post-war recovery in exchange for US access to vital minerals.
Wildfires tore through the outskirts of Jerusalem on Wednesday, shutting down highways, triggering evacuations—and prompting Israel to call for international help.
Financial Times (splainer gift link) has a good read on how Trump is cozying up to Latin America’s hard-right trio—Bukele, Milei, and Noboa—even as he snubs leaders of key trade partners Mexico and Canada.
The Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration has left a group of Bhutanese refugees who were legally in the US stateless, with no clear future in sight.
But but but: A Texas court has issued a ruling saying the Trump administration’s rapid removal of hundreds of people without hearings—based solely on an 18th-century law—is illegal.
Trump showed Mike Waltz the door as national security adviser and named him as his pick for UN ambassador.

meanwhile, in India

With an estimated 150 million women in India facing menopause in 2025, women are breaking the silence by creating books, podcasts, and communities to tackle the transition—especially in the workplace—amidst a lack of institutional support.
At an event marking her husband’s 27th birth anniversary, Himanshi Narwal, wife of the navy officer killed in the Pahalgam terror attack, spoke out against attacks on Muslims, saying, “I don’t want hate.”
Also In the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack: the US voicing strong support for India’s right to defend itself.
As of yesterday, the RBI’s new rules let banks charge Rs 23 per ATM cash withdrawal once you’ve used up your free monthly withdrawal limit, up from Rs 21.
Gautam Adani’s group hits pause on a $10 billion chip project with Israel’s Tower Semiconductor, deciding it’s not the right move commercially or strategically.
Zoho has also shelved its $700 million chipmaking plan—dual blows to PM Modi’s push to make India a global chip manufacturing hub.
Pickleball in India hits a snag as two rival associations clash over national federation status, with the older AIPA threatening legal action after the Sports Ministry backs the newly-formed IPA.
India blocks Instagram accounts of top Pakistani stars like Mahira Khan, Hania Aamir, and Ali Zafar, days after the deadly Kashmir attack.

Five things to see

One: The Japanese motorbikes company Kawasaki has unveiled a quadruped robot that you can ride like a horse. You can check out the cool demo video below. The Conversation explains how it works and why it’s useful.

Two: Jack Black’s 34-second song titled ‘Steve’s Lava Chicken’ in ‘A Minecraft Movie’ has become the shortest song to break into the Billboard Hot 100. It is every bit as terrible and funny as you’d expect. (Billboard)

Three: The makers of the hit series ‘Panchayat’ have a new rural comedy show—this time highlighting a hospital. The series is titled ‘Gram Chikitsalaya’ and stars Amol Parashar, Vinay Pathak, Anandeshwar Dwivedi, Akash Makhija and Akansha Ranjan Kapoor. It drops on May 9 on Amazon Prime. (Indian Express)

Four: Get ready for a Mark Kerr biopic titled ‘The Smashing Machine’—directed by Benny Safdie. Dwayne Johnson aka The Rock plays the two-time UFC heavyweight champ (an obvious choice) with Emily Blunt as his wife. Both of them are unrecognizable! The movie is slated for October 3. (Variety)

Five: BBC Studios in collaboration with the Agatha Christie estate has constructed an online video course “starring” the author. They have used her images, writings and interviews to build an AI avatar—which will offer her gyaan on how to write a crime novel. The videos are offered on the subscription platform BBC Maestro. You can see the promo vid—with AI Agatha below. (The Guardian)