The real story in Syria is not that it is spiralling into violence—but that it reveals how great parts of the Middle East have now been left at Israel’s mercy—for Bibi to bomb or occupy at will.
A series of unfortunate events
Syria has been an ongoing dumpster fire for decades. Here’s a quick timeline to catch you up.
How we got here: It began with the Arab Spring in 2011—with the pro-democracy uprising against longtime dictator Basher Al-Assad. As with all things Middle East, a popular revolt soon turned into a geopolitical game—with appalling consequences. Anti-Assad forces were supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. On the other side, Russia and Iran jumped in to save Assad.
Enter, Islamic State: Al Qaeda—which jumped in to support the anti-Assad coalition—which included both secular and Islamist groups. The entry of Islamic extremists—and the rise of ISIS—proved decisive. In 2014, the Islamic State controlled 40% of Syrian territory—and we were now in a different war—with a new geopolitical configuration. The US-led alliance launched airstrikes against ISIS. The fear of Syria becoming a permanent terror hotbed became paramount—and the goal of toppling Assad was forgotten.
Enter, Russia: In 2015, Moscow fully entered the fray—deploying its most sophisticated weapons, and committing multiple war crimes. Iran also sent in troops on the ground—to shore up Assad’s army. By 2018, the Islamic State was dead—and Assad was back on the throne—but presiding over a fragmented and fragile Syria, and never quite securely in power.
The fall of Assad: The most recent rebellion began on November 30 and ended in days.
On December 8, 2024, the Assad regime fell following a ten-day offensive carried out by rebel forces—a coalition led by Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). Assad’s collapse was sudden indeed—but the real causes of his downfall were events way outside his realm—and control—the wars on Lebanon and Ukraine:
The swiftly changing fate of Bashar al-Assad was not really made in Syria, but in southern Beirut and Donetsk. Without the physical crutches of Russia’s air force and Iran’s proxy muscle Hezbollah, he toppled when finally pushed… Now these two allies are wildly over-stretched elsewhere, the imbalance that kept Assad and his ruling Alawite minority at the helm is also gone.
All his enemies had to do was bide their time—and wait for the right alignment of the geopolitical stars. Btw, this is exactly how the Taliban kicked the Americans out of Afghanistan.
The good ‘terrorist’: Abu Mohammed al-Jolani
The new dictator in town is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani—chief of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The group was born as a direct affiliate of Al Qaeda. The head of Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi personally announced its creation—namechecking al-Jolani. But al-Jolani broke away first from the IS in 2012—and then with Al Qaeda in 2016—and gave the group its current name. Until he ascended to the throne in Damascus, al-Jolani was running a mini fiefdom in north Syria—where his militia developed a fearsome reputation for “brutal abuses against those who dared dissent, which the UN has classed as war crimes.”
Our man in Damascus: All of al-Jolani’s past sins have been forgiven and forgotten by the West. He has now been recast as a pragmatist—a not-so-bad extremist. As the New York Times approvingly noted: “Mr. al-Jolani’s group has not gone to extremes like banning smoking or music, or forcing women to cover their faces, as some hard-line Islamist groups have done elsewhere.” Btw, as part of his rebirth, the name al-Jolani has also been retired—dismissed now as a nom de guerre (military pseudonym). The official president of Syria is now Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa.
A new understanding: In June, Donald Trump formally ended US sanctions on Syria to support its "path to stability and peace". A month later, Washington took HTS off its list of foreign terrorists—once he promised to toe the US line:
[The White House] added it would monitor the new Syrian government's actions including "taking concrete steps toward normalising ties with Israel" as well as "addressing foreign terrorists" and "banning Palestinian terrorist groups.” Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani said the move would "lift the obstacle" to economic recovery and open the country to the international community.
Sadly, none of this talk of peace and reconciliation reflects the chaos and violence on the ground. That brings us to what’s happening now—and why.
A ‘communal riot’ in Suwayda
In March, 1300 people were killed in 72 hours by al-Sharaa loyalists—most of them belonging to Assad’s community—the Alawites. The government, however, insisted these were rogue extremists—outside their control. Then it happened again. Late last week, a confrontation between two minority groups—Druze and Bedouin—turned into a bloodbath. Hundreds were killed over the course of four days:
“There were hundreds of wounded, no less than 200 bodies in the hospital. Many of them shot in the head, as if executed,” said Bahaa, a surgeon speaking of the events of this week in Sweida under a pseudonym for fear of retribution. Videos filmed inside the hospital showed hallways lined with corpses, rooms stacked with body bags and corpses piled up outside. A second doctor from the intensive care unit said bodies had to be placed outside the morgue for lack of space.
The tragedy began as what we would call a ‘communal riot’.
About the Druze: Syria is home to more than half of the 1 million Druze—who are a minority religious offshoot of Shiite Islam. The rest live in Lebanon and Israel—and the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed from Syria in 1981. The Assad government was totalitarian but also secular. Minorities were given far greater power than the Sunni majority. The Druze, however, have long been a target of Islamic extremists—including the Islamic State—which considers them heretics. They have naturally been a bit jumpy ever since al-Sharaa took power.
About the Bedouins: They are Sunni nomadic tribes spread across the deserts of the Middle East and North Africa for centuries. The very word ‘bedouin’ comes from ‘’badawi’—as in, desert dwellers. In Syria, Bedouins mostly live in the Al-Badia desert—in the south and east, including provinces like Sweida, Homs, and Deir ez-Zor.
Point to note: Yes, there is a Sunni-Shia element to the conflict here—but the two communities have lived side by side for centuries—with occasional conflict. OTOH, there is historical resentment that is easy to exploit:
According to [tribal leader’s] account, the Druze - who migrated to the Jabal al-Arab area around two centuries ago - gradually expanded their influence, curbing the pastoral livelihoods of the Bedouin, particularly livestock herding. This, he said, led to the forced migration of nearly half of the Bedouin tribes from the mountain region toward Jordan, rural Damascus, and Daraa.
How it started: It was a bog-standard local skirmish that escalated:
The fighting broke out last week when the abduction of a Druze truck driver on a public highway set off a series of revenge attacks and resulted in tribal fighters from all over the country streaming into Suwayda in support of the Bedouin community there.
But when the government troops came in to supposedly restore peace in the province, they targeted the Druze militias:
[G]overnment forces, sent into the restive province for the first time since the fall of Bashar al-Assad to restore order, instead clashed with Druze militias. Rights groups say hundreds of people, including civilians, have been killed in days of fighting in which all sides have been accused of atrocities including summary executions.
The death toll: is more than 900 over four days—according to independent estimates. And the horror has not ended. Tit-for-tat killings on both sides continue even after government troops have been withdrawn—and despite an official truce declared by al-Sharaa between the two sides.
Attention please: Why any of this matters
The world has become mostly numb to suffering in Syria—be it under Assad or the Islamic State. A collapse of order in a country mired in a civil war for over a decade is hardly news. But there is one new reason to pay attention to this tragedy: Israel.
Let’s start with geography: Location is all in both politics and real estate. In the map below, you can see Suwayada (also spelled Sweida), the annexed Golan Heights—and the UN-monitored buffer zone that Israel has now grabbed:
Israel hearts the Druze: Soon after violence broke out in Suwayda, Tel Aviv rushed in as an avenging angel—carrying out heavy air attacks on the province and Damascus—”claiming it was to protect the Druze community.” The reason:
In Israel, the Druze number 150,000. Unlike Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel, many Druze Arabs serve in the Israeli military and police, including during the war in Gaza, and some have reached a high rank, meaning their voices cannot be easily ignored by Israel's political leadership.
In other words, the Druze are a “loyal” and favoured Muslim minority in Israel—unlike their Palestinian brethren. Thanks to their location in Syria, they also offer a handy buffer—and an excuse to nibble away at its borders:
Israel has painted the new Syrian government as a jihadist threat, saying it won't allow it to deploy forces into southern Syria. Israel has said it wants to avoid any hostile build-up at its border, whilst also vowing to protect the Druze minority. Israeli troops have also seized Syrian territory adjoining the occupied Golan Heights since December.
According to The Guardian, Tel Aviv is just trying to make lemonade of an outsized lemon:
In the past, Israel relied on Russia to help maintain a buffer zone from its border with Syria, the threat then being Iranian-backed forces. It had little problem with Assad himself, affectionately referred to by Israeli analysts as “the devil we know”. Now, Israel finds itself without a trusted partner in Syria. It has seized on the Syrian Druze as a pretext for renewed military intervention and its continued presence in southern Syria. Since Assad’s fall, Israel has occupied wide swathes of Syrian territory.
Some good turns do go unpunished—if you’re Bibi Netanyahu.
Everyone hearts the Druze: Needless to say, the US and its European allies have suddenly developed great concern for the well-being of the community. They have called on “Syrian authorities to ensure the safety and rights of all segments of the Syrian people”—and called for investigations into civilian deaths. All of which (coincidentally) reinforces Tel Aviv’s excuse for its strikes. Japan is the only US ally who urged “all parties [to]... preserve Syria’s territorial integrity and national unity, and respect its independence and sovereignty.”
As for the Druze: They are split over whether to buy al-Sharaa’s promise to protect their well-being. And they are afraid of paying the price for Israel’s grandstanding: “Many Druze resent Israel’s suggestion of patronage, fearful it will further isolate them in a country where Israel is despised.” But last week’s events may prove to be a tipping point.
Quote to note: According to the Financial Times, an Israeli official told reporters: “For now, Israel has agreed to allow government security forces to enter Sweida (Suwayda) for 48 hours, “due to the ongoing instability.” That sentence tells you everything you need to know.
The bottomline: Bibi is allergic to any kind of peace anywhere in the Middle East—other than rich sheikhdoms like Saudi Arabia. The fears of the Druze community offer a perfect opportunity to plunge Syria back into violence—and establish a stronghold within its territory. As one expert says: “The Druze are scared and want protection now — it means they could take it from anyone.” But more scary is the free pass now given to Israel—which extends way past Gaza.
Reading list
Al Jazeera reports on the latest ceasefire between the Bedouin and Druze groups. Read The Guardian and Financial Times (splainer gift link) for analysis on why this division between minority populations lays bare the new regime’s challenges. NDTV offers more information about who the Bedouin tribe are and where they come from, while Associated Press provides the same context for the Druze. Asharq Al-Awsat gives more historical perspective to their conflict. Reuters carries the Israeli point of view, and why they are intervening on behalf of the Druze. Our Big Story and this Council on Foreign Relations piece offer background and context into the dramatic and sudden fall of the Assad regime last year.
