First, a bit of background

How we got here: It began with the Arab Spring in 2011—with the pro-democracy uprising against longtime dictator Basher Al-Assad. As with all things Middle East, a popular revolt soon turned into a geopolitical game—with appalling consequences. Anti-Assad forces were supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. On the other side, Russia and Iran jumped in to save Assad. 

Enter, Islamic State: Al Qaeda—which jumped in to support the anti-Assad coalition—which included both secular and Islamist groups. The entry of Islamic extremists—and the rise of ISIS—proved decisive. In 2014, the Islamic State controlled 40% of Syrian territory—and we were now in a different war—with a new geopolitical configuration. The US-led alliance launched airstrikes against ISIS. The fear of Syria becoming a permanent terror hotbed became paramount—and the goal of toppling Assad was forgotten.

Enter, Russia: In 2015, Moscow fully entered the fray—deploying its most sophisticated weapons, and committing multiple war crimes. Iran also sent in troops on the ground—to shore up Assad’s army. By 2018, the Islamic State was dead—and Assad was back on the throne—but presiding over a fragmented and fragile Syria, and never quite securely in power.

Something to see: This is what the map looked like last week—when rebels first seized the city of Aleppo:

The end of Assad: And we all fall down

The end—when it came—unfolded with astonishing speed: 

• The military offensive was launched last week by a new rebel coalition called the “Military Operations Command”—led by the near-unknown group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. 
• The first city to fall was the northern city of Aleppo—which had taken Assad’s forces four years to claw back. It was taken with virtually zero resistance. 
• The rebels then moved almost in a straight line—down the road to Damascus. 
• On December 7, other anti-Assad factions took control of towns to the south of the capital. 
• Finally on Sunday, the rebels entered the capital city.
• Assad has officially left the country—and been given sanctuary in Russia.

Washington Post created this neat map tracing the line of advance:

Cue the celebrations: Syrians are ecstatic at the end of Assad’s long rule—distinguished only by its brutality. This is a man who used chemical weapons on his own people. You can see them metaphorically burning him at the stake below:

Christian Syrians celebrated an early and joyous Christmas:

This overview shot best captures the mood in Damascus:

How did this happen? Assad’s collapse was sudden indeed—but hardly surprising. His troops were decimated by years of civil war. But the real causes of his downfall were events way outside his realm—and control—the wars on Lebanon and Ukraine:

The swiftly changing fate of Bashar al-Assad was not really made in Syria, but in southern Beirut and Donetsk. Without the physical crutches of Russia’s air force and Iran’s proxy muscle Hezbollah, he toppled when finally pushed… Now these two allies are wildly over-stretched elsewhere, the imbalance that kept Assad and his ruling Alawite minority at the helm is also gone.

Assad’s hold on Syria was always precarious—heavily reliant on outside support. All his enemies had to do was bide their time—and wait for the right alignment of the geopolitical stars. Btw, this is exactly how the Taliban kicked the Americans out of Afghanistan.

The king is dead, long live the king

Meet Hayat Tahrir al-Sham—the great mystery of the Islamist world. Here’s what we know about this group:

• Back in 2011, the militia was set up under the name of Jabhat al-Nusra—as a direct affiliate of Al Qaeda.
• The head of Islamic State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi personally announced its creation—namechecking al-Jolani—”who is one of our soldiers.”
• It was a formidable anti-Assad force—but driven primarily by religious extremism. 
• HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani first broke with IS in 2012—and then with Al Qaeda in 2016. That’s when he dissolved al-Nusra and renamed it Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
• The group was running a mini fiefdom in Syria’s northern Idlib province in recent years. 
• It has also developed a fearsome reputation for “brutal abuses against those who dared dissent, which the UN has classed as war crimes.”

Meet the ‘pragmatist radical’: Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is now being framed by experts as a not-so-bad extremist—although his background is a bit, well, worrying. He was radicalised by the 9/11 attacks:

It was as a result of this admiration for the 9/11 attackers that the first signs of jihadism began to surface in Jolani’s life, as he began attending secretive sermons and panel discussions in marginalised suburbs of Damascus.

His survival instinct, however, proved more powerful than his loyalty—or ideology. In 2015, al-Jolani made clear that his group had no intention of attacking the West. Later he cut ties with Al Qaeda primarily to avoid becoming a US target. 

The latest makeover: In recent years, he has distanced himself even further from jihadism: 

He has over the years stopped sporting the turban worn by jihadists, often favouring military fatigues instead. On Wednesday, he wore a khaki shirt and trousers to visit Aleppo’s citadel, standing at the door of his white vehicle as he waved and moved through the crowds.

In keeping with his refurbished image, al-Jolani has been reassuring everyone—citizens, minorities, international media—of his good intentions. Experts say it may not be sincere—but it sure is smart:

The less local and international panic you have and the more Jolani seems like a responsible actor instead of a toxic jihadi extremist, the easier his job will become. Is it totally sincere? Surely not. But it’s the smart thing to say and do right now.

Point to note: It seems to be working. Publications like the New York Times are already playing down al-Jolani’s less reassuring tendencies:

He and his group espouse government guided by a conservative and at times hard-line Sunni Islamist ideology. But he has formed an alliance with a variety of other rebel factions, some backed by Turkey, that hold more moderate views… Mr. al-Jolani’s group has not gone to extremes like banning smoking or music, or forcing women to cover their faces, as some hard-line Islamist groups have done elsewhere.”

See? He’s not sooo bad! 

But, but, but: Stanly Johny in The Hindu offers a far more clear-eyed view:

Jolani, a U.S.-designated terrorist, has never denounced his jihadist ideology. In the 2015 interview, he said Syria’s Alawites would be left alone “as long as they abandon elements of their faith which contradict Islam”. He has called for an Islamic regime in Syria based on Sharia — that is the final goal of the HTS. In recent months, he said Syria’s minorities have nothing to fear from the HTS. But he repeatedly emphasises the Salafi-jihadist character of his “revolution”. The secular Syria is no longer alive in HTS territories.

The bottomline: Tomorrow—in part two—we will look at the players most affected by this event: Turkey, Iran, Russia and Israel—which is already grabbing bits of Syrian territory. 

Reading list: Associated Press via The Telegraph rounds up the latest developments. For more on al-Jolani, read The Guardian or the excellent The Hindu profile if you have a subscription. BBC News profiles HTS. CNN explains how the war in Ukraine and Lebanon changed Assad’s fate. Washington Post offers a detailed timeline of the sudden collapse.