This is the last of a three-part series that lays plain the ideology behind Donald Trump’s seeming madness. In part one of this series, we looked at why he is tearing apart America’s closest friendships—and the global order. In part two, we explained the logic of Trumpworld—a playground for the three big bullies who treat other nations as collateral. Today, in part three we look at the role assigned to India in this Darwinian playground. Nope, we ain’t a big boy, so where does that leave us?
Editor’s note: The world as we know it seems to be coming to an end—Trump tears apart alliances and rules like a demented King Kong. But in his madness lies a method—aimed at building a ‘back to the future’ world order where might is always right. In part one, we looked at what he is destroying. In part two, we looked at what he is trying to build. In part three, we look at where India fits into this Trumpian world.
Putting India in the picture…
Where does the world’s largest democracy fit into Trump’s image of the world? According to External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Washington and New Delhi are on the exact same page: “I think we see a President and an administration which, in our parlance, is moving towards multi-polarity. And that is something which suits India.” He argues that India has always understood that the world is ruled by great powers—with whom we negotiate one-on-one: “I’m not being entirely facetious, a multipolar world used to be our talking point. It’s now become the American talking point.” Y’know, great minds etc. etc.
Point to note: The Trump ideology also dovetails nicely with the government’s line on India’s ‘internal affairs’: “Asked about discrimination against India’s 200m Muslims, [Jaishankar] criticised ‘tokenism’ and ‘identity lobbies’ that ‘cater to minority demands’.”
Advantage India? In Jaishankar’s view, we’re wonderfully positioned to take advantage of this new reality. We are not whiny babes in the woods unlike Europeans—in need of military treaties like NATO. The Economist recently noted Jaishankar’s embrace of insulting MAGA language—to emphasise New Delhi’s affinity with Trump’s America:
Mr Jaishankar described the Quad (alliance with the US, Australia and Japan) as “an understanding where everybody pays their fair share”, designed, he argued, to ensure that “there are no free riders”. The not so subtle comparison was with NATO. Without promising policy changes or greater spending, Mr Jaishankar used the MAGA language of free riding to present India as a more straightforward partner than Europe.
Behold the multipolar mecca: We now finally have the world order we always wanted. Unlike Joe Biden, Trump doesn’t need us to ‘commit’—or stop playing footsie with Putin. We’re are all grown ups just cutting deals to get ahead:
You have comfort, you have commonalities. It’s more like a club. You don’t have legal contractual obligations with other members but it’s a gathering place . . . The treaty-based concepts are typical of the old order. The new order is something more flexible.
Ah, yes, a club. Except Trump’s club of big bros doesn't include India.
Big boys club: Membership denied?
New Delhi was accorded a super-special status by the Biden White House—as a counterbalance to its great enemy China. In turn, our Quad alliance was to offer protection against Chinese troops nibbling at our borders. Jaishankar believes that Trump’s diplomatic calculation will remain essentially the same. Maybe not.
Sorry, not a big boy: As former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran explains, Trump’s version of a ‘big boys’ world is hardly the same as our idea of ‘multipolarity’:
In this way of thinking, the US, Russia and China are great powers by virtue of being the largest countries area-wise. Each is entitled to its sphere of influence and will continue to contend but also collaborate within these parameters. Other states are pawns in this bigger game and must accept the roles assigned to them.
The problem: New Delhi isn’t on that list. We may instead be seen as just another nation—to be humoured or discarded at will:
Trump does not see India as a big power in the same league as China and Russia. India has to be careful and ensure that it does not come to be seen as a convenient pawn for the US in the big power game. One expects that while the Quad.. will continue to play a role in the Indo-Pacific, it may no longer be a strategic component of an American determination to retain its dominance in the region, but as a tactical bargaining tool vis-a-vis China.
A telling moment: Last month—with Modi-ji sitting right next to him at the White House—Trump said this about Beijing:
Addressing a joint press conference, Mr. Trump side-stepped a specific question about India’s role in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, instead saying that China could have a role. “I think that China is a very important player in the world. I think they can help us get this war over with Ukraine and Russia…”
As for China nibbling away at Ladakh, Trump offered:
[A]nd I look at India, I do see the skirmishes on the border, which are quite vicious, and I guess they continue to go on… If I could be of help, I’d love to help, because that should be stopped. That’s been going on for a long time, and it’s quite violent. It’s quite violent, but I would hope that China and India and Russia and us and all of us can get along.
What about ‘em tariffs?
Contrary to the PR spin, Modi’s visit to Washington has done little to blunt Donald’s rage at our import duties. Trump’s most recent remarks painted us as protectionist little shits who are being taught to toe the line:
Reminder: The US is one of the rare countries with whom we enjoy a trade surplus—of $46 billion—which Trump seems determined to erase. If he succeeds, it would remove the biggest benefit of maintaining warm relations with Washington.
The high price of tariffs: The Indian media has been awash with reports of a ‘zero-for-zero’ approach—where both sides agree to axe their import duties. But any such move will come at the expense of Indian industries—that have long relied on government protection. Zero tax on Elon Musk’s Tesla is terrible news for Tata EVs. Similarly, Trump’s demand for an “even playing field” for Amazon and Walmart doesn’t bode well for Reliance.
The smartphone example: The government has worked hard to divert manufacturing from China to India–to boost smartphone exports. Perhaps not for long:
Finished smartphones entering India currently face a 16%-20% tariff, whereas tariffs on Indian phones sold into the U.S. are at 0%, according to Barclays. “If the Indian exports of smartphones, which have picked up recently — were to face similar tariffs in the U.S., it could deal an early life-cycle blow to the [Indian] electronics industry, reversing the entire China+1 narrative,” according to Venugopal Garre, Bernstein’s head of India research.
That’s just the beginning. A full-fledged free trade agreement—currently being negotiated in Washington–will force India to cede far more:
The US may push India to open government procurement to American firms, reduce agricultural subsidies, weaken patent protections by allowing evergreening, and lift restrictions on data flows, which India has consistently opposed.
Quote to note: Over the weekend, the PM gushed on a US podcast about Trump’s “America First spirit”—“I stand for India First and that's why we connect so well.” But Trump’s definition of a ‘good deal’ is rarely good for anyone other than himself. Or as Fareed Zakaria plainly puts it:
Trump is a transaction guy. Think about every real estate deal he’s ever done. At the end of the day, the person he does the deal with never wants to deal with him again. That is basically one of the leitmotifs of Trump’s business career. He screws you in the deal and then moves on. And the next time around he screws somebody else.
Friends in new places: Most leading Indian security experts agree that India will need a new set of BFFs. Contrary to Jaishankar’s grandstanding, New Delhi and Brussels are busy hammering out a free trade deal—to mitigate the Trump-inflicted damage. Point to note: Both the EU and China are rushing to ink similar agreements with trading partners across South America and East Asia—for the same reason.
Irony alert: While New Delhi dreams of being spared Donald’s wrath, the state-controlled Chinese media is convinced that Trump’s bullying will bring Modi-ji rushing back into Xi’s arms. Sounds unlikely? Maybe not if you heed Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent kumbaya moment—when he declared, “President Xi Jinping has proposed building a community with a shared future for mankind... History will prove that the real winner is the one that keeps in mind the interests of all."
The bottomline: We are perched headlong on the edge of a new world where a pig might indeed fly. We just need to make sure he doesn’t shit on our heads.
Reading list
Financial Times (splainer gift link) has a revelatory interview of hamaara Jaishankar—who says the old world order’s virtues are ‘exaggerated’. The Economist also breaks down how India is benefitting from Trump 2.0—with Jaishankar echoing his language. CNBC provides a reality check on Trump’s tariffs impacting Apple’s ‘big plans’ for India, while The Diplomat features China’s gowing concerns about India-US relations.
