The Trump administration has been itching for a showdown over Ukraine—and more broadly Europe. We break down the string of bad omens leading to the Trump-Zelenskyy blow-up, and what happens next.
First, the string of bad omens
The leadup: The Trump administration has been itching for a showdown over Ukraine—and more broadly Europe. There were big, blazing signs of bad things to come in the weeks before Zelenskyy stepped into the White House.
First: came the impossible demand: The US would only protect NATO countries if they “each fork out 5% of GDP to pull their weight.” FYI: the US only spends 2.9% of its GDP on defence. No, the US will not send any aid or troops to protect Ukraine—or protect any NATO nation who was foolish enough to earn Putin’s wrath by doing so:
European security is Europe’s obligation and problem, and the US government will not pledge its support should the continent’s deterrence or actual security be threatened… For those not wilfully blind to the obvious, NATO without US security guarantees is not NATO at all. For the time being, at least, the alliance has been reduced to a coffee klatch able to bring little more than a butter knife to a gunfight.
Next: In mid-February, JD Vance scolded the gathered European leaders in Munich for their overly liberal values. Vance’s entourage included a conservative young turk who once declared: “Welcome to the end of democracy. We are here to overthrow it completely.” Vance met with the leader of the far right party AfD—but not German Chancellor Olaf Schulz.
Finally, the phone call: Trump made a 1.5-hour call with Putin—to hash out a ‘peace treaty’—without inviting or even informing Ukraine or NATO allies:
The blindsiding of the NATO allies delivered an unmistakable message: We don’t care about you, we don’t like you, and we enjoy it when you whine. The exclusion of Ukraine delivered an equally clear message: Your sovereignty is about to disappear and we would be happy to hear you whine about that too.
On to the big brawl…
All of this was just a warm-up for the main show—which played out at the White House on February 28. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been invited to come sign a minerals deal—signing away rights in exchange for US security guarantees. Rather than offering protection, Trump and his sidekick Vance set upon Zelenskyy—like thugs in a dark alley… except it was the Oval Office, in front of the entire world on live TV. You’ve got to see it to believe it:
The fallout in Washington: The Trumpistas promptly blamed Zelenskyy for the ugly scene. Why didn’t he just get on his knees? Why didn’t he kiss Donald’s rather substantial arse? Did you see his body language? Why wasn’t he in a suit? In other words, like any woman anywhere in the world, he asked for it. Zelenskyy was asked to leave almost immediately after the press event.
Meanwhile, in Moscow: The Russians brought out the best vodka, of course. Adding to their joy, loyal Trumpistas are now demanding Zelenskyy’s resignation—which is at the top of Putin’s wishlist. However, Trump’s cruel abandonment of Ukraine may not bring him the ceasefire—or Nobel Peace prize—he so desires:
If the United States is really ready to abandon Ukraine, Mr. Putin could try to seize more Ukrainian territory and end up with more leverage if and when peace talks ultimately take place…“Russia will be willing to keep fighting for longer, and more bitterly.. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moscow decided to go further, to Odesa or Mykolaiv,” [Russian newspaper editor] Mr. Remchukov said, referring to key Black Sea ports that remain under Ukrainian control. “It could change the strategic direction of the offensive.”
Why not make territorial hay while the great American sun shines?! Putin may now aim for even greater goals—like kicking out NATO across Eastern and Central Europe.
Enter Europeans: We need a new plan!
The show then moved to London—where a dozen EU leaders plus Canada and Turkey gathered for an emergency summit on Ukraine. There was only one item on the agenda: Wtf do we do with Donald?
We heart Vlodomyr: Most of the European leaders rushed to express their fervent support for Ukraine—with the exception of Hungary’s Viktor Orban who hearted his fellow strongman. Keir Starmer invited Zelenskyy to 10 Downing Street ahead of the summit—and gave him a hug to make it all better:
The promise of a $5 billion loan—to be paid off with frozen Russian assets—didn’t hurt either.
A new plan: There was already talk of an alternative proposal before the meeting. Starmer made it official after the meeting. The exact details haven’t been nailed down, but here’s the gist of it:
According to Starmer, the leaders at the summit agreed to keep military and financial support for Ukraine going and, in parallel, to increase economic pressure on Russia. Ukraine, the premier insisted, should be included in any negotiations about its future. European nations are willing to provide security guarantees, but the US must contribute with a backstop to deter Russian aggression, he added.
The plan would involve an initial one-month truce between Russia and Ukraine “in the air, at sea and on energy infrastructure.” But not on the ground since monitoring frontlines would require boots on the ground. If this holds, the two sides can negotiate a peace agreement—guaranteed by a "coalition of the willing” nations. For now, we only have confirmation of troops from the UK, France—the rest still have to be brought on board.
The other core detail: Kyiv must sign a minerals agreement demanded by Trump—come what may. Give the devil his due etc.
The good news for Ukraine: Everyone present agreed to continue sending military and financial aid—and to make sure Kyiv was at the table during any negotiations. Contrary to Trump’s rhetoric, the majority of funding comes from Europe and other countries like Canada. The pie looks like this:
Some estimate Europe can make up half of the US’ share of 40%—so, another 20%—in six months to two years. So all is not entirely lost. Also this: The outgoing Biden White House made sure Ukraine will have enough to keep it going till the summer—after which things will get tricky. FWIW, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc will make sure Ukraine is turned into “a steel porcupine that is indigestible for potential invaders”.
Now, the caveats: EU leaders will convene for a defence summit this week—and there are already signs of dissent. Not everyone is Ukraine’s BFF. Examples: Hungary and Slovakia. There’s a lot of talk of the EU ramping up its military spending—again, not everyone can afford to do so. Finally, very few are willing to send their soldiers to Kyiv—not even Germany or Spain are on board for now. Though it may change when Freidrich Merz takes the reins in April (see: This Big Story).
The biggest ‘but’: The entire plan hinges on the US committing to a ‘backstop’—to guarantee the safety of future European troops in Ukraine. Trump has flatly refused to do so. And nothing can happen without his blessing:
As one of the UK prime minister’s allies put it before the meeting, there was no alternative to patching things up with the White House: “The PM will bring people together and politely make sure they realise that there is only one negotiation in town — and that’s President Trump’s.
These guys can’t even hold a meeting without worrying about Washington: “Starmer was at pains, according to British officials, to make it clear to Trump in a phone call on Saturday night that the Lancaster House summit was not a case of Europe trying to gang up against him.”
The bottomline: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni told Starmer: “It is very, very important that we avoid the risk that the West divides.” The biggest fear is that Trump will permanently break with Europe and gut NATO—a prospect Moscow is already celebrating hailing Trump for “dramatically changing all its foreign policy configurations.” Many experts believe that Trump plans to change not just US foreign policy—but the entire world order. Next week, we look at the World according to Donald—what it will look like and what it means for the rest of us.
In the meantime, we leave you with this quote from an ordinary Ukrainian: “Dignity is also a value. If Russia cannot destroy it, why does the US think it can?”
Reading list
Financial Times (splainer gift link) is best on how the 900-pound gorilla named Trump will shape any European action. Reuters has details on the outcome of the summit. BBC News looks at Zelenskyy’s mood after the diplomatic rollercoaster. The Economist, however, seems to think that his days are numbered—now that Washington is demanding regime change. For the big picture on the brawl in the Oval Office, we recommend reading this scathing take from Quillette. And New York Times has more on why Putin won’t be talking peace any time soon.
