First, the results

Last November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister—which destroyed the ruling coalition led by his party, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). He then lost the vote of confidence, triggering early parliamentary elections.

The contenders: The two mainstream parties are the center-right Christian Democratic Union and the centre-left Social Democratic Party. To its left is the enviro-focused Greens—which is usually a coalition partner for the SPD. OTOH, the libertarian, free market-loving Free Democratic Party is the preferred partner for the CDU. The blackest horse in the race: the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD)—lots more on that later.

Now, the results: We don’t have the final tally but exit polls in Germany are usually very reliable—unlike, say, the US. The results show the CDU has 28.8% of the vote. At second place: AfD with an unprecedented (and frightening) 20.2%—which gives it legitimacy as a viable political alternative. The outgoing SPD—led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz—has come in third with 16.2%—a nosedive from the 25.7% it scored in 2021.

A notable trend: The socialist Die Linke party has won 8.8%—comfortably pushing it over the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. The Greens have 11.6%. It is a sign of increased polarisation—as Germans move further to the Left or Right. 

Coalition rules: It always takes months to form the government in Germany—because they are almost always coalitions. No one party crosses the 50% mark to govern alone. Each of these possible permutations have amusing names. For example, Scholz’s outgoing coalition ‘Traffic light’: Social Democratic Party (SPD) + Free Democratic Party + Greens. 

The most likely permutation for the Christian Democratic Union is either ‘Kenya’—which includes both the SPD and the Greens—or the ‘Grand Coalition’ with just the SPD.  Basically, any combo that keeps AfD out of power. Point to note: There is no name for a coalition that includes AfD… for now.

About that scary far right AfD...

AfD’s secret sauce is the same as any other European rightwing party: Hating on immigrants. Or what its leader Alice Weidel likes to call ‘remigration’—a Nazi-flavoured term for mass deportations of immigrants—even citizens. On the campaign trail, she promised that her first act as chancellor would be to close the borders—and “send out the illegals.” This rage at outsiders is deeply coded into its political DNA:

The AfD was founded in 2013 in opposition to German support for bailouts during the European debt crisis. The party grew rapidly, embracing a strong anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim focus after Germany welcomed more than 1 million refugees in 2015 and rallying against lockdowns and vaccine mandates during the coronavirus pandemic.

AfD itself has become more radical since the pandemic when it banded together with conspiracy theorists and far-right extremists of every stripe. FYI: The AfD also favours leaving the EU—and opposes giving military aid to Ukraine.

Not helping matters: In recent months, immigrants have been responsible for a number of horrific attacks. Two cars driven by migrants tore through a peaceful protest in central Munich—and a Christmas market in Magdeburg. Another killed two in a knife attack in January. All of which gave a timely boost to AfD’s prospects. 

AfD’s demographic dividend: The scariest aspect of the party’s rise is its popularity among young Germans—who are angry and frustrated. The reason: They are expected to shoulder the burden of supporting older generations—but have the least political power: “Less than 15% of voters are under the age of 30, while nearly 60% are over 50.” Since 2006, financial anxiety has moved young voters to the right—more so since the pandemic—and more so in East Germany:

Young Germans are also less sensitized to the horrors of the Nazis than older generations and are more willing to look past statements from AfD leaders trivializing the Holocaust. Instead, the focus is on regaining a sense of stability and national pride. Economic anxieties are especially powerful in the countryside and in Germany’s east, where job losses and hardship following reunification are much more present.

According to exit polls, AfD won 34% of the vote in east Germany. 

Rising popularity: In the European elections last year, there was an 18% jump in 16–34-year-olds voting for the AfD. In September, 2024, it became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since the end of World War II. It was led by Björn Höcke—a man twice convicted of knowingly using a banned Nazi slogan—and who is worshipped by young men as a rock star.

Point to note: The youth wing of the AfD was officially labelled extremist by German intelligence—and has now disbanded and merged with its parent party. But, but, but: AfD itself has been classified as an extremist organization in three German states. 

Meet AfD’s ‘not queer’ leader: Alice Weidel first became an MP in 2017—and has been co-leading AfS with Tino Chrupalla since 2022. Here’s the unexpected bit: 

The former investment banker is in a civil partnership with a woman with whom she has two adopted sons, but says she sees no contradiction between this and the AfD’s belief that “the family, consisting of father, mother and children, is the nucleus of society.”

Weidel has also said: “I am not queer, but I am married to a woman I have known for 20 years.” Yet her every effort to sanitise her party’s hatred of same-sex marriage has been overruled—over and again.

One silver lining: A friendless AfD 

For now, no one is willing to openly tie themselves to the AfD—not even Merz. When he sought its support to push through tougher immigration legislation in late January—it caused great furore—and a U-turn:

His willingness to use the support of the AfD to do so broke a long-held taboo in German politics… and prompted massive protests in German cities. In an interview at his party congress in early February, however, Merz reiterated to CNN that working with the AfD was a non-starter. “They are against… everything (that) we are, what we build up in the Federal Republic of Germany. There is no co-operation with this party,” he said.

For now, the agreement between mainstream parties to shun AfD—called the ‘firewall or brandmauer in German’—has held. Turns out there is a ‘firewall’ to keep AfD out in the EU, as well.

Too right for the Right: The problem for AfD is that it is a little ‘too Nazi’ for its rightwing peers—who are rising to power across Europe. The far right has won elections in Italy and the Netherlands—leads the polls in France, Austria and Belgium—and is part of the government in Finland and Slovakia. These parties are banding together in the European parliament to transform the face of the EU—but AfD is not invited to the party:

They want nothing to do with a party whose top candidate, Maximilian Krah, has revealed embarrassing views about Adolf Hitler’s Waffen-SS and whose number two faces accusations of taking money from Vladimir Putin’s Russia - allegations he denies.

So AfD is being shunned by everyone except… 

Just right for MAGA America: Soon after the elections were called, Elon Musk announced his support for the party—declaring “Only the AfD can save Germany.” The biggest endorsement came from Veep JD Vance. On his visit to Europe earlier in February, he became the seniormost US leader to meet with Weidel—but not Chancellor Scholz. More astonishingly, he delivered a speech—scolding Germans for marginalising AfD: “There is no place for firewalls.. If you run away out of fear of your own voters, America cannot help you.”

Point to note: Elon Musk beamed himself into a rally for Weidel at Halle—to heartily endorse AfD. At the same rally:

As Ms. Weidel took the stage in Halle, the crowd started a chant that was a not-too-subtle play on a Nazi slogan, “Everything for Germany,” a phrase once carved on the knives of Nazi storm troopers. It is banned in Germany. The crowd tweaked it ever so slightly. “Alice for Germany!” they cried.

Quote to note: Of all this noise, the next Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz said: “I cannot recall, in the history of Western democracies, that there has been a comparable case of interference in the electoral campaign of a friendly country.”

Meet the atmanirbhar Friedrich Merz

Here’s a quick overview of his political career: 

• Merz was a member of the European parliament (MEP) for Germany between 1989 and 1994. 
• He then became a CDU member of Parliament until 2009. 
• Then he took a break from politics to work as a corporate lawyer—and was even a board member at investment behemoth BlackRock.
• Merz then re-entered politics in 2021 as the MP from Brilon.
• He made two failed attempts to become CDU chief—in 2018 and 2021—and finally won the prize in 2022.

Merz’s domestic politics: are cookie-cutter conservative. He supports tougher immigration laws, cutbacks in social benefits—and upholds family values. 

Atmanirbharta politician: Merz’s friends describe him as a ‘conviction politician’—who seems to be most convinced about one fact—that Europe has to fend for itself to cope with the calamity that is Trump:

Speaking Tuesday night in Halle, Mr. Merz described a new contest between democracies and autocracies and spoke of “an epochal rupture” with the United States. “We see in America a president who admires autocratic systems and rides roughshod over all kinds of norms,” he said, and a “vice president who tells us how to run our democracy.”

Merz’s solution to this madness: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.” That includes transforming NATO into a Europe-first treaty—and getting those nukes in order: 

“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us,” Merz said… We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally.” 

FYI: US nuclear weapons in Europe are currently housed in Germany. Merz also supports Ukraine and openly backs its entry into NATO—which was recently ruled out by Trump. 

Reminder: Germany is the largest economy in Europe. However weak it may be right now, it has the greatest impact on the well-being of the continent. And Merz places Berlin at its very heart—with or without Washington by its side:

[Friedrich Merz warned] that while Germany's future lay in the West, it was not clear that the West would include the United States anymore. "But even without Americans, our place remains in the centre of Europe, not alongside Putin and not isolated on the way to the right-wing populist sidelines," he wrote in a letter to supporters on Friday.

The bottomline: If the new chancellor has his way, he will transform the bedrock of the post-WWII world order—i.e. the alliance between the United States and its West European allies. He will also reveal the limits of Trump’s strategy for dealing with US allies—shaking them down for US protection. They may decide to pay for their own instead.

Reading list

CNN has the latest results. Reuters looks at the possible coalition options. For more on Merz, read New York Times and Euronews. Politico has more on a European nuclear defence plan. For more on AfD and its odd leader, read the Washington Post and Politico. BBC News and The Guardian explain why the other European rightwing parties want nothing to do with it. NATO expert Jamie Shea pens a brilliant deep dive into Trump/America’s exit from ‘The West’.