For the past two weeks, everyone has been focused on the battles across the border—and their result. The deeper story about this war lies in the weapons that were used by each side. In the first installment of our two-part series, we look at the deployment of drones—which mark a landmark moment in India-Pakistan warfare—and mark a new (dangerous) form of escalations.
Editor’s note: The second part will look at the rather large dragon in the room: China. We explain the many reasons why Beijing has emerged as the biggest winner in this battle.
Drone wars: A landmark moment
Drones have long been used as a surveillance device on the border areas between India, Pakistan, and China. And their use as high-tech AI spies has been soaring in recent years:
According to BSF, drone sightings along the India-Pakistan border have surged from 77 in 2020 to 311 in 2022, totaling 492 over three years. In 2023, the number of drones shot down and seized skyrocketed to 119, a fivefold increase from the previous year. Punjab, with its vast border stretches, has been the most vulnerable, recording 369 incidents.
The big picture: At least 118 countries currently have drones in their arsenals—up from about 60 in 2010. In fact, drones have become the perfect weapon for China—which prefers to avoid direct confrontations:
The country has cemented its position as the world’s second military superpower, following the United States, with significant advancements in drone technology. “China is not just manufacturing drones but has built an entire ecosystem around them, including software, sensors, and AI-powered coordination,” said [defence consultant] Dr. Tallha Abdulrazaq.. China’s investments have led to drones capable of autonomous flight, target recognition, and swarm coordination. These capabilities allow for precision strikes and enhanced surveillance with minimal human intervention.
China has been testing “AI-powered drone swarms” on the Ladakh border—and giving them to Pakistan—to give it an edge in cross-border skirmishes.
The rise of ‘drone hub’ India
Worried about being left behind, India has leaned into drone tech since 2020—both homegrown and foreign-made:
A large number of military drone manufacturers have jumped into the fray from corporations such as Adani Group, Tata, Reliance, and a large number of small and medium scale enterprises, and startups. Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that India has the potential to become a global drone hub by 2030.
The most formidable drones in the Indian arsenal are made in Israel—or in collaboration with it. Searcher and Heron are reconnaissance drones—while Harpy and Harop are “loitering” drones—”drones that double as missiles, capable of autonomous reconnaissance and precision strikes.”
An atmanirbhar “swarm”: The most notable addition to our drone arsenal is the development of ‘made in India’ “swarm” drones that work together. They can attack multiple targets at the same time, overwhelm enemy defences with sheer numbers—and effectively take out enemy drones. Btw, we have over 200 startups focused on developing drone tech.
Data point to note: India also recently inked a $4 billion deal to acquire 31 US Predator drones that can fly for 40 hours and up to a height of 40,000ft”—which “marks a major leap in its strike capabilities.” By mid-2024, India had between 2,000 and 2,500 drones—spending between $361.45 million and $421.69 million.
But, but, but: Military experts in the past have worried that India doesn’t do a great job of deploying them:
A case in point is the failure to detect Chinese build-up and preemptive intrusions in Eastern Ladakh. In Eastern Ladakh, 14 Corps had [Israeli] Heron drones with a capability to look 100 km across the LAC.
Welcome to Drone Wars 2025
In the Ukraine-Russia war, drones serve as a lethal ‘wingman’ to traditional weapons:
Drones can be used as decoys or suppression of enemy air defences, flying into contested airspace to trigger enemy radar emissions, which can then be targeted by other munitions like loitering drones or anti-radiation missiles. "This is how Ukraine and Russia both do it in their war. This dual role - targeting and triggering - makes drones a force multiplier in degrading enemy air defences without risking manned aircraft," says Prof Matisek.
But this is the first time drones have been used as a weapon of war in any Indian-Pakistan confrontation. Each side claims to have shot down “waves” of enemy drones.
Sidepoint to note: Pakistan’s drones are both home-made or imported from China and Turkey. But many experts say India’s arsenal is more extensive and sophisticated.
Their main selling point: Unlike Ukraine, in this battle, "silent, remote and deniable” drones allow a new kind of escalation—destructive but not as aggressive as a bomb or missile strike. Warfare experts call them “the lowest possible escalatory step in a conflict, usually to pressure and probe an opponent’s air defenses.” Drones also allow both sides to show they are exercising “restraint”—while not backing down. Unlike the Ukraine war, on the subcontinent they are mostly “symbolic.”
OTOH, the ‘counterforce’ temptation
The problem is “symbolic” weapons can have unintended consequences—just like any other.
The N-word: Some experts say drones increase the temptation of developing a “nuclear counterforce.” In a 2019 paper, co-authors Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang warned New Delhi was contemplating a different kind of ‘first strike’—using conventional weapons to take out Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal:
Increasingly, Indian officials are advancing the logic of counterforce targeting, and they have begun to lay out exceptions to India's long-standing no-first-use policy to potentially allow for the preemptive use of nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, India has been acquiring the components that its military would need to launch counterforce strikes. These include a growing number of accurate and responsive nuclear delivery systems, an array of surveillance platforms, and sophisticated missile defenses.
That temptation becomes even stronger with drones—as this Stimson analysis argues: “In nuclearized South Asia, the ability of drones to conduct precision strikes on strategic targets, including nuclear assets, raises the stakes in any conflict.”
As for Pakistan: The growing “technological gap” between India and Pakistan may also make the nuclear option more desirable to Islamabad:
This perceived erosion of Pakistan’s second-strike capability heightens the “use it or lose it” pressure, pushing Pakistan to consider the nuclear option, particularly if it believes that its strategic assets are vulnerable to preemptive strikes.
The longer the drone war goes on, the higher the risk—precisely because Pakistan has fewer drones—and China’s unlikely to replenish its store (too interventionist for Beijing):
[Pakistan’s] reliance on external sources could become a vulnerability in a protracted conflict, such as a full-scale war with India similar to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, if diplomatic pressures or supply chain disruptions limit Pakistan’s ability to acquire new drones. If external dependencies limit Pakistan’s ability to maintain an effective drone fleet, it may need to rely more heavily on its nuclear deterrent to uphold strategic stability.
The bottomline: We leave you with this quote from Jahara Matisek:
Drones lower the political and operational threshold for action, providing options to surveil and strike while trying to reduce escalation risks. But they also create new escalation dynamics: every drone shot down, every radar blinded, becomes a potential flashpoint in this tense environment between two nuclear powers.
In part two, we explain why China is laughing all the way to the bank—as an arms dealer, a rival superpower to the US and a foe of India.
Reading list
BBC News and New York Times are best on the use of drones in the current India-Pakistan conflict. Al Jazeera has a handy list and map of where and how both sides have deployed drones.. We recommend reading Stimson analysis for the nuclear hazards of drones—and this 2019 International Security paper on “India’s counterforce temptations.“ This InkStick analysis—published in February—offers a big picture view on the use of drones by India, Pakistan and China. Retired Lt Gen HS Panag in The Print has a nerdy take on the state of India’s drone arsenal.
