On Tuesday, we will learn the results of the first assembly elections to be held in Jammu & Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370. But are these results meaningless—in a state that has been dismantled and its state Assembly rendered toothless? Or do they mark a new chapter in Kashmir’s history?
First, some background
The previous state election: was held in 2014—with Omar Abdullah as the incumbent Chief Minister. Congress broke its alliance with his—the National Conference—and contested all 87 seats alone. The BJP and the PDP—led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed—ran separately, but later joined forces in a most unlikely plot twist.
The results: PDP emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats, followed by BJP with 25. The National Conference could only manage 15—slightly higher than the Congress total of 12 seats. Hence, the shaadi of convenience between BJP and PDP—between a stridently Hindu nationalist party and a vocally separatist organisation.
A very strange rishta: The new coalition took office on March 1, 2015—with Sayeed as chief minister and BJP's Nirmal Kumar Singh as his deputy. The two parties even boldly announced a Common Minimum Programme—to signal their determination to make this relationship work. Then Sayeed died in 2016. His daughter Mehbooba Mufti took his place as CM, but as it turned out—BJP had other plans.
The well-timed breakup: BJP pulled out of the coalition in 2018—bringing the Mufti government down. An added benefit: J&K was put under governor’s rule. As BJP leader Ram Madhav explained at the time: “Keeping in mind that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and in order to control the prevailing situation in the State, we have decided that the reins of power in the state be handed over to the Governor.”
The end of 370: Soon after the resounding victory in 2019, the BJP government finally revealed its grand plan. In a series of legal manoeuvres (explained in detail here), the government did the following:
- It introduced a new constitutional provision—thanks to which then Kashmir Governor Satyapal Malik was considered to be the government of Kashmir. He then gave consent to applying all parts of the Constitution to J&K.
- Since Kashmir was under presidential rule, the government claimed that the powers of the state assembly have been passed to parliament—which approves a statutory resolution annulling almost all clauses of Article 370.
- Having essentially eliminated Article 370, the government pushed through a bill dividing the state into two Union Territories: Ladakh and J&K.
The Supreme Court order: Last December, the Court ordered that people of J&K must be allowed to vote—hence the election.
The 2024 election: basic deets
The elections were held in 90 constituencies over three phases between September 18, October 1. The main contenders: The coalition of National Conference plus Congress, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the BJP.
About those seats: There were only 87 seats in the 2014 election. The higher total reflects the redrawing of district lines—to Hindu-dominated Jammu’s benefit:
Total seats in the regional assembly have gone up from 87 to 90, but the share in the Jammu region has risen from 37 to 43 seats while the Kashmir Valley saw an increase of just one seat to 47. This move has been widely criticised for skewing representation in favour of Jammu, which has been awarded 48 percent of the seats in the legislature, though it accounts for 44 percent of the population.
Also this: The state’s election laws used to limit the right to vote to ‘Kashmiri’ residents—whose parents or grandparents lived in Kashmir in 1934. The government has removed that requirement. As a result, this election will include a new set of voters—Hindu migrants from Pakistan. As one first-time voter put it: “It’s a Diwali for us. We feel liberated.”
Point to note: BJP has fielded only 19 candidates for the 47 seats in Kashmir—but is contesting all 43 in Jammu. Although rival parties claim that it is secretly supporting independent candidates in the valley—to fragment the vote. Interestingly, one of the alleged BJP stooges is this guy:
Shaikh Abdul Rashid, a politician who was elected to India’s parliament from jail, where he has been held for five years on terror financing charges. Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party has formed an alliance with independents widely understood to be loyal to the influential Jamaat-e-Islami, a banned Islamist outfit whose members in the past joined militant outfits.
FYI: “43% of 503 candidates contesting the vote in the Kashmir Valley are independents, compared to 35% of 359 candidates in Jammu.”
The big surprise: Where’s the boycott?
Unlike previous elections, none of the key players staged a boycott—nor did the voters. Despite five years of rage and alienation, the turnout was a healthy 65%. As for the parties, even the separatist Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir backed several candidates—marking its first foray into the electoral arena in 37 years. There was no talk of Azad Kashmir this year:
Dr. Chowdhary says one striking shift is the disappearance of groups that fundamentally oppose Indian rule. Most anti-India groups – which frequently called to boycott elections – have been banned or rebranded since 2019, leading to the absence of separatist politics. “Anyone seeking to raise a political voice in Kashmir has to compete in the democratic space,” she says.
Or because the consequences for even hinting at separatism are now severe [shrug emoji].
As for the people: Some Kashmiri leaders claim the higher turnout reflects a new generation’s desire to have a voice in their destiny:
“People are realising that they have been dispossessed,” says Waheed Parra, an assembly candidate in south Kashmir’s Pulwama district... “Institutions that were once irrelevant to us now symbolise our removal from the system, and this realisation has turned political participation into an act of self-preservation.”
This is quite something given Parra’s history. He spent 18 months in prison in 2020 on terror charges—and says he was “stripped, tortured, locked up.”
But, but, but: Other Kashmir experts say the healthy voter turnout is not an endorsement of democracy. Rather, it reflects the “collective desire” to keep the BJP out of power. Parra says young Kashmiris have turned from throwing stones to casting votes. OTOH, former finance minister Haseeb Drabu says it’s exactly the opposite: “The vote is truly the new stone… This is not going to be a vote for something, it’s a vote against [the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party], at least in the Kashmir Valley.
Decoding the stakes: Power or just PR?
The answer isn’t quite that straightforward. The elections vindicate the government’s claim that they have built a ‘naya Kashmir’—which is an integral part of India. As Amit Shah roared at the crowd at a Lok Sabha rally: “Tell me: Is Kashmir ours, or not?”
Naya Kashmir, Hamara Kashmir: When the government revoked Kashmir’s special status, it promised a future of “peace, development and prosperity.” The elections are meant to be a vindication of its vision—an assertion of ‘normalcy’ at the very least:
Holding the elections is also important for New Delhi to demonstrate that “normalcy” has returned to the region after the controversial 2019 changes, said experts. “A successful election and a local government will not only demonstrate New Delhi’s confidence in the local political actors but, more importantly, validate its claims of winning over the people,” said MW Malla, a Delhi-based Kashmiri researcher.
A bit of freedom: Voters don’t much care for BJP’s version of Kashmir, but they see the election as an opportunity to reclaim some measure of autonomy:
The imprisonment of Kashmir youth, many of them in distant Indian jails, is also a major issue, as are local challenges such as a growing menace of drug abuse and unemployment. “I am a student, I will vote hoping it might change the job scenario or help in releasing so many people in jails,” Tabinda Arif, attending a rally of the National Conference, the oldest party in the state, told Al Jazeera. “Everyone has suffered so much in the past five years, maybe things will change.”
The hope is that—at the very least—a locally elected representative will be more invested in the well-being of his constituents than a bureaucrat in Delhi.
But, but, but: By downgrading J&K to a union territory, New Delhi essentially stripped its Assembly of all powers—which are now vested in the Lieutenant Governor–appointed by New Delhi, of course:
Jammu and Kashmir’s Legislative Assembly lost significant power with the state’s downgrade to a union territory, and new rules introduced this July transferred additional powers over law enforcement, finance, and the senior bureaucracy to the lieutenant governor. The lieutenant governor now has authority over the Anti-Corruption Bureau, the Forensic Science Laboratory, and other important institutions, and “they even mandate that his representative sit in on Cabinet meetings and that policy decisions be vetted by his office,” says Radha Kumar, former Delhi-appointed interlocutor on Kashmir.
Voters are essentially voting for lawmakers who can’t make any laws—or even administer them.
Back to statehood? That’s the carrot the PM dangled tantalisingly in a recent speech. A reward for voting saffron. But it’s also the core election promise of almost every party in the election. It may turn out to be a pipe dream—but less so than the wild promises to restore Article 370. But any form of statehood is likely to be highly constrained. New Delhi doesn’t plan to loosen its iron grip any time soon.
The bottomline: The exit poll results predict a divided result. Some forecast a hung parliament—while others give the Congress-NC coalition a slight edge. BJP is expected to hold its own in Jammu—but PDP will likely take a severe (and well-deserved) beating. In the eyes of the voter, BJP may be the wolf, but PDP opened the door and let it in. There is some consolation for the Kashmiris in that.
Reading list
Al Jazeera and NPR offer the best overviews of the election. Al Jazeera also looks at the PM’s promise of statehood—and whether it will be fulfilled. Indian Express has the latest exit polls. The Diplomat has more on the BJP’s ploy of supporting independent candidates—even the militant kind. We have done a number of important and detailed explainers on Kashmir. We pulled together a two part series on the exodus of the Pandits from the Valley—carefully parsing the known facts (part one and part two). This Big Story looks at the origin story of Article 370—dating back to accession of Kashmir. Part two lays out the convoluted process used to dismantle it.
