The democratic demand for authoritarianism

Written by: Election editor Chirag Chinnappa. Infographics by Sharath Ravishankar. Sharath is a Bangalore-based information designer and illustrator. Check his work out @shirtshanks

Much ink has been spilled on the slide towards autocracy around the world. Freedom is disappearing–and so is democracy. But the results of two recent surveys tell a more complicated story. Yes, authoritarianism is on the rise–but so is the demand for it. Are nations throwing up more dictatorial leaders because the voters want it? If so, what does that say about democracy?

The first chart: Support for authoritarianism

Let’s start with the Global Attitudes Survey conducted by the Pew Research Center. It surveyed 24 countries about their citizens’ views of democracy and political representation. The surveys were conducted last year–and the results released in February. All the nations polled—be it Canada, South Korea, Kenya or Argentina–hold elections. India was one of them. 

There is a wide variance in the percentage that say “rule by a strong leader or the military would be a good way of governing their country.” It ranges from 8% in Sweden to  85% in India. Yes, you read that right.  India is at #1, in fact. The other seven countries who showed the greatest support are Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. Unsurprisingly, the greater desire for authoritarianism is linked to weaker support for a strong Opposition. Only 36% of Indians considered a free Opposition to be critical

A rising tide: As you can see above, in terms of absolute percentage, lower income countries top the list. But look at the eight countries that registered the greatest  increase in support for authoritarianism—between 2017 and 2023. This set is similar but not identical. It includes Germany, where the percentage jumped from 6% to 16%—and Poland where it rose from 15% to 25%.

The big question: Does the increased demand for authoritarianism result in an actual increase in authoritarianism? In other words, do people get the government they deserve–or at least ask for? 

The second chart: The rise of authoritarianism

The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute studies publishes an annual ‘Democracy Report’—which measures the level of democracy in 180 countries. V-Dem views democracy as a spectrum—with nations moving away from or toward the two poles. So nations are not autocratic or democratic—but rather undergoing a dynamic process. 

We looked at what the 2024 edition said about the eight countries that measured the greatest jump in the demand for authoritarianism in the Pew Survey. Reminder: The top eight were India, Mexico, Poland, Kenya, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina and Germany: 

As you can see above, there is a strong correlation between the countries that have become more autocratic—and nations where more citizens support authoritarianism. The time period for the V-Dem index is a little larger—from 2013 to 2023—but the trend lines remain the same.

The striking anomalies: are Brazil, Argentina—and to a lesser extent, Kenya. Brazil is especially notable since it displays a sharp and sudden rise—toward democratisation. The U-turn is primarily due to the defeat of strongman Jair Bolsonaro in 2022—who was toppled by left-leaning Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. 

How did that happen—given that the demand for authoritarianism remained the same? There was no sharp change in what people wanted—and yet the result of the 2022 election was almost exactly the opposite. Should we take comfort in the result? Does Brazil disprove the seeming connection between supply and demand?

Yes and no. Bolsonaro lost the election because of economic misery. With soaring food and fuel prices, around 33 million people were experiencing hunger in 2023—a three decade high. The share of families who lacked money for food at some point in the preceding year jumped to 36% in 2021—the highest level since 2006. Lula won because he promised to end the pain–not because he promised democracy. 

The lessons for India:  V-Dem classifies India as an “electoral autocracy”—where “multiparty elections for the executive exist albeit with insufficient levels of fundamental requisites such as freedom of expression and association, and free and fair elections.” That’s very similar to Brazil before Lula came to power. If Brazil is any indication, Indians may remain content with authoritarian leaders until they cause great economic misery that affects their lives. 

Even so, the V-Dem report also shows that the economy is necessary but insufficient reason for dramatic change. To reverse backsliding, a democracy requires a unified opposition, widespread resistance and a strong judiciary. Whether India has any of those elements remains to be seen. 

For now, it seems like the ultimate irony–that so many of the world’s democracies seem to deliver exactly what people want–less democracy.

Extra reading: You can check out the Pew Survey and V-Dem report in their entirety, as well.