Rich, poor or middle class. Legal or undocumented. The number of Indians leaving the country has been soaring—ever since the end of the pandemic. Are we witnessing a fourth wave of Indian migration?
First: the three waves
There have been three key waves of mass migration out of the country:
The colonial coolie: Starting in the early 19th century, British colonialists banned slavery—and replaced it with indentured workers. They were transported across the world to build and maintain the empire—tending plantations and building roads and laying down railway tracks:
Peasants from India and other territories who signed up to become indentured labourers were moved to colonies throughout the empire in a coercive process known as the coolie system… In 1838, British Guiana became the first Caribbean territory to which the empire forced Indian workers to migrate. Imperial leaders later followed suit by sending Indians to other territories in the Caribbean and elsewhere. Millions of Indians went to Mauritius during this time, and more than 500,000 indentured Indian workers were transferred to the Caribbean between 1838 and 1917.
The post-war worker: At the end of World War II, the British empire fell apart—but its need for a workforce was as great as ever. Except now the former burra sahibs needed low-paid labour to restore the battle-scarred homefront. Many of them were Punjabis displaced by Partition—looking to rebuild their lives far from home—thanks to lax Commonwealth rules of immigration. By 1961, there were 250,000 Indians in the UK—surging to 483,000 in 1971. Today, around 9.3% of the British population is of South Asian descent.
The post-colonial migrant: The third wave began with the oil boom in the Middle East in the 1970s. The promise of better wages attracted primarily working class Malayalis—who worked in retail and construction—while the better educated took jobs in health care. In parallel, a wave of doctors, engineers, financial professionals, and others moved to the United States—when it removed country-of-origin quotas. The introduction of H-1B visas in 1990 opened the floodgates—creating a pipeline of Indian immigrants, which remains to this day.
And is this a fourth wave?
India has the world’s largest diaspora—with 13.6 million Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), 18.68 million Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs), and nearly 32.3 million Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs). An added 2.5 million Indians move overseas every year–also the highest in the world.
No one has declared a fourth wave as yet—but the migration stats are staggering. Every kind of Indian is leaving the country—and in increasing numbers:
- Between November 2022 and September 2023, 96,917 Indians were arrested trying to illegally enter the US—up from 19,883 in 2019-20, and 63,927 in 2021-22.
- A total of 216,000 Indians renounced their citizenship in 2023—compared to 85,256 in 2020.
- India is now the #1 source of migrants to OECD countries (club of 38 developed economies). They are a close second to Mexicans in the US—and top of the list in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Sweden.
- There were 800,000 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in India in 2022—of which 7,500 left India. That’s nearly 1%.
- The number of students leaving the country for higher education jumped by 68% in 2022. It is expected to double from 1 million 2019 to 2 million by 2025.
- The US alone has seen a 63% increase in Indian graduate students—and a 35% overall increase in Indian international students in 2022/23.
The upside for India: Remittances sent by NRIs reached an all-time high of $125 billion last year.
Ok, it’s increasing, but is it new?
The skyrocketing number of undocumented migrants is definitely unprecedented. Take the case of North America. The number of Indians detained, expelled or refused entry at the US-Canada border has jumped by 47% in the past six months. In FY2023, there were 96,917 Indians apprehended, expelled or denied entry into the US—a 5X increase from FY2020—when there were just 19,883. The very nature of this exodus—who is migrating and how—is also new.
The dunki route: SRK’s movie may not have been a superhit—but it captured a reality that is curiously overlooked. Thousands of Indians today take a long and hazardous ‘dunki’ (donkey) route to a Western country of choice. They are transported across a dozen countries—for over a year!—by an international network of smugglers who herd them like cattle:
Traditionally, Indian migrants who arrive at the US-Mexican border use "door-to-door" smuggling services, with journeys arranged from India to South America. They are often guided the entire way and travel in small groups with their fellow countrymen who speak the same language, rather than individually or with only family members. These networks often begin with India-based "travel agents" which outsource parts of the journey to partner criminal groups in Latin America.
The routes can run through Rome, Istanbul, Hanoi, Paris or Cairo: “‘It’s a game of flight tickets,’ said the Punjabi agent. He and his fellow agents trade notes: The Belarus border is tight, but the route from Serbia to Hungary to Austria fares better.”
Costs of failure: are painfully high. There was a lot of fuss over the Gujarati family that froze to death on the Canadian border—or the Punjabi child who died of heat exhaustion in the Arizona desert. But there are many, many more that never make headlines. Like eighteen-year old Jaspreet Singh who was caught in Dubai with a fake visa—and jailed and tortured. Or this:
Stepping onto the terrace of his home, [an agent] chatted with a friend who had tried to get to Germany but was stopped with seven others along the border between Belarus and Poland by police with fierce dogs. The friend said they were harshly beaten, then locked in the trunk of a car. One of the migrants died from the thrashings, and another died by suicide.
Data points to note: We like to think of the so-called ‘boat people’ as refugees from other countries. But there has been a 60% increase in the number of Indians who cross the Channel to enter the UK. More Indians are also travelling through the infamous Darien Gap—which separates Colombia and Panama—to reach the Mexican border. In 2023, 3,300 Indians went through the treacherous jungle—second only to the Chinese (more than 13,000).
This is because they’re poor and desperate?
Well, not exactly. Unlike other refugees, they aren’t fleeing famine, civil war or grinding poverty. To put it simply, Indians are leaving because they want something better—be it safety or prosperity.
One: The fear of persecution. The number of asylum seekers from India has soared exponentially ever since the BJP came to power—especially among minorities:
“Many of them are Sikh, seeking asylum based on how they feel they’ve been mistreated and targeted in Punjab under Modi’s government,” [Pawan Dhingra, a professor of American studies at Amherst College] said. “Now the U.S. has a big problem on its hands. It’s cozying up to Modi in every possible way, in terms of state visits and rhetoric, but it has an increased set of asylum-seekers from this country.”
More importantly: Countries like the US and Canada now recognise the crackdown on Sikh farmers—as reasonable grounds for asylum. The rate of accepted claims in Canada jumped from 20% in 2014 to 50% in 2022:
"What that's saying is that Canada is recognizing that there is persecution and human rights violations in India," said [Law professor Sean] Rehaag "That combination — an increase in the number of people making claims and an increase in the recognition rates — tells me that the human rights situation in India has worsened during this period."
Obvious point to note: Whether persecuted or not, migrants are told to “told to say they don’t feel safe in India”—by their dunki agents. It is the only legitimate basis for asylum.
Two: Visa backlog. India has a weak passport—ranked 80th in the world—a reason why wealthy Indians are only too happy to cede it. It takes ages to get a visa to many of the richer nations—that’s if your application is not rejected. Worse, immigration rules are becoming stricter. The rejection rate of Australian student visas jumped from 20% to 30% in a single year—between 2022 and 2023. The US rejected a record 36% of all student visas in the same year. Even tourist visas like the Schengen have become very difficult to get (see: this Big Story).
To many young Indians—and their parents—it seems safer to take your chances with an agent‚—with a “proven” track record: [T]he number of Indian migrants is also rising as a result of a "ripple effect" that takes place when those who have used these services successfully recommend them to friends or family back in India
Also this: The chances of ‘success’ are high if you do make it to your destination. Mexicans can be easily pushed back into their own country by US border officials. But Indians live on the other side of the world—which also works to their advantage:
“It’s a diplomatic hassle to return people,” [lawyer Muzaffar Chishti] said… What typically happens, instead, is that Indian migrants are issued notices to appear before judges on specific dates, he said, and those immigration courts have backlogs of their own. If migrants do not have lawyers, their hearing dates may be delayed for months or years. “It is a system breaking under its own weight,” Chishti said. “So smugglers know that; they publicise that.”
Point to note: Country-hopping can also be used in other creative ways. Example: Indians who book tickets to Canada via Heathrow—where they promptly seek asylum the moment they touch down. Between 2018 and 2023, the annual number of Indian asylum seekers at UK ports increased 11-fold. This is one reason why countries are cracking down on giving transit visas to Indians.
Three: A “culture of migration.” Poor Indians cannot afford exorbitant smuggler fees. This exodus isn’t about desperation—it’s about aspiration. Migrants are typically lower middle class—looking for upward mobility:
But faced with a shortage of attractive jobs and a struggling agricultural sector, they find that the wealth they have in India is not enough to transform their lives, and this creates “a culture of migration,” [South Asian studies professor Devesh Kapur] said.
When everyone around you is racing to the West, the FOMO is real—as with this 28-year-old who was forced to return after being stranded in Istanbul:
On a recent day back home in India’s Haryana state, he opened Snapchat on his phone. It was filled with images of friends who have reached the United States, dancing at the Mexican border while their families back home set off fireworks and cut a cake in the shape of an American flag. “I feel, let me go, too,” he said.
Even the kid who was jailed and tortured in Dubai is ready to take another shot at his dream.
The bottomline: Colonial sahibs first transported Indians as indentured workers—then they imported us as cheap labour. And here’s what many desperate Indians say today: “There are no well-paying private jobs. So it is better to be in some menial job in Canada or the US and earn well than stay here in India and struggle forever.” We may be the fastest growing economy in the world, but India remains far from the land of opportunity.
Reading list
NBC News, BBC News and Washington Post have the best reporting on undocumented migrants from India. CBC News has more on the rise of asylum claims in Canada. Migration Policy offers good background on the Indian diaspora. MoneyControl looks at the soaring number of students looking to study abroad. MoneyControl and Business Standard have more on where wealthier Indians are moving—and why. BBC News has a must-read on the impact of well-educated, young Indians on the global economy.
