Arvind Kejriwal gets bail!
After spending 50 days in jail, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was finally granted interim bail by the Supreme Court on Friday. The bail will extend till June 1—the last phase of voting in the Lok Sabha elections—after which the CM will have to surrender once again. During this period, Kejriwal will only be allowed to campaign for the elections—and the SC has pointed out that he cannot visit the CM Office or sign any official files.
In the order, the two-judge bench specifically noted the importance of the General Elections—and the need to ensure a level-playing field to all candidates:
“There is no gain saying that General Elections to Lok Sabha is the most significant and an important event this year, as it should be in a national election year. Between 650-700 million voters out of an electorate of about 970 million will cast their votes to elect the government of this country for the next five years. General Elections supply the vis viva to a democracy,” a Bench of Justices Sanjiv Khanna and Dipankar Datta observed in its order.
The Hindu has more on the judgement. A good related read: Our Big Story on the strict anti-corruption law that kept Kejriwal in jail for so long.
Speaking of Kejriwal: In true Mr K fashion, the first thing he did after coming out of prison was launch an amusing attack on PM Modi and Home minister Amit Shah. In a speech at the AAP headquarters, he said:
I want to warn the people of the country that Modi ji is not asking for votes for himself, he is asking for votes to make Amit Shah the Prime Minister. I want to ask Modi ji and Amit Shah ji, who will fulfill Modi’s guarantee’? Will Amit Shah fulfill Modi’s guarantee?
Watch his entire speech below. (Indian Express)
Congress is competing in less seats
According to an Indian Express report, Congress is fielding candidates in 328 seats in this election—which is the lowest number of seats ever for the party. This is also 93 seats less than the previous election in 2019. This is because it has given 101 seats over to its allies.
The Congress is contesting more seats only in Karnataka and Odisha. In Mizoram, it is contesting the lone seat this time – in 2019, it had backed an independent. In Karnataka, the party is contesting all 28 seats this time as compared to 21 in 2019. Its then ally JD(S) had contested the rest of the seats. In Odisha, it is contesting 20 seats compared to 18 in 2019.
The biggest losses have been in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Maharashtra. (Indian Express)
A survey of overseas surveys on Modi
A new study of surveys conducted in leading Western democracies highlights data that shows the Modi government isn’t quite as popular as it claims. According to one survey, only 10% of people in the UK view Modi favourably—followed by 22% in the US. The number dropped to 9% among young Americans.
A YouGov poll released in March had similar results:
Modi is neither well known nor popular in the United States and the United Kingdom. The survey also showed that in the US and the UK, Modi ranks below highly disliked leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
The bit that makes us a little sceptical about the sample for some of these surveys is this: “Further, three in every four respondents said that they are concerned about the new laws that would make it harder for Muslims to become citizens in India, referring to the Citizenship Amendment Act.” Umm, we’re shocked that so many people in the West even know wtf CAA is… Scroll has more on this study.
A market panic attack
The numbers on the Indian market don’t bode well for the ruling party. On Thursday, the S&P BSE Sensex fell 1,062 points—and the NSE Nifty-50 lost 345 points. The reason: Traders are worried about the BJP’s performance:
“There were murmurs [in the market] about lower than expected turnout in the polls, which could make it difficult for the Modi government to return,” said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent stock analyst, adding the confidence in the Prime Minister’s “400 plus (seats)” campaign has waned and has “unsettled investors.”
Btw, the Bernstein Global report warned precisely against this—saying delusional expectations of a massive BJP majority will result in a sharp adjustment when the results come out. But experts say individual investors are pulling out now—in anticipation of that correction. (The Hindu)
A rare move: Modi on Muslims
In a TV interview with Times Now, the Prime Minister offered rare comments on his and his party’s alleged hostility to Muslims. He also took the opportunity to urge Indian Muslims to “introspect and think about the future.” You can see the vid below.
If you don’t understand Hindi all that wall, here’s the gist in translation:
The country is moving forward. If your community is lagging, then what is the reason? Did you receive the benefit of government schemes during Congress' rule? If you keep thinking about who to put in power and who to remove, you will only ruin the future of your children. The Muslim community is changing across the world… Think about your future. I don’t want any community to live the life of bonded labour due to an atmosphere of fear.
About those Modi speeches: In a shocking move, Prime Minister Narendra Modi took aim at the government’s favourite capitalists: Ambani and Adani. Here’s what he said, for those who don’t understand Hindi too well:
The shahzada (prince) should declare – during these polls, how much have they taken from Ambani-Adani (kitna maal uthaaya hai)? How many sacks of black money have been taken? Have tempos full of notes reached the Congress? What’s the deal that’s been struck (kya sauda hua hai)? Why did you stop abusing Ambani-Adani overnight? Surely something is amiss (zaroor daal mein kuch kaala hai).
We definitely didn’t see this plot twist coming. Indian Express has more.
Sam Pitroda steps down
Modi-ji may be immune from consequences of his rhetoric, but the chief of the Indian Overseas Congress Sam Pitroda had to step down after saying this:
People in the East look like the Chinese, people in the West look like the Arabs, people in the North look like, maybe, White, and people in the South look like Africans… It does not matter. All of us are brothers and sisters.
To which Modi said:
Yeh chamadi ki rang ka khel Shehzade ko kisne ijazat di hai. Samvidhan sar pe lekarke nachne wale log… (Who gave permission to these people who play this game with skin colour—and dance with the Constitution on their head)... Modi will never tolerate it.
Sigh. (Indian Express)
Voter turnout still sluggish
The number of voters showing up at the polling booths has greatly varied—from one state to another. In the latest phase, Gujarat witnessed a turnout of 55%—compared to 70.41% in Karnataka. Turnout has also been sluggish in the Hindi belt. We don’t know what that means—and some pundits have read the numbers as evidence of lack of voter enthusiasm for the BJP. But that may just be wishful thinking. (Hindustan Times)
Trouble in Haryana for BJP
In the midst of the Lok Sabha election, Independent MLAs in Haryana have thrown a curveball. Three of them have withdrawn support from the ruling BJP government—and thrown their weight behind Congress.
The Assembly math is as follows. There are 90 seats. But the effective total is 88 as two are empty—which makes the majority mark 45. BJP now only has 40 plus three allies—so a total of 43. The Congress has bounced upward to 45—thanks to the newly acquired support of the Independent MLAs. It has submitted a letter to Governor Bandaru Dattatreya seeking the dismissal of the BJP government and demanded a floor test. A similar letter was also sent by JJP chief Dushyant Chautala—the former ally of BJP—seeking the imposition of President’s Rule in the state.
Why any of this matters: The Assembly election in Haryana is slated for October-November this year. More importantly, the Lok Sabha election is on May 25—i.e. these defections are very “timely” as well. (Indian Express)
An astounding terror allegation against AAP
The context: Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal was arrested on March 21 on corruption charges related to a liquor scam case—as are other top AAP leaders. He is currently out on interim bail. See this Big Story for more details.
What happened now: Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena called on the National Investigation Agency (NIA) to investigate CM Arvind Kejriwal—alleging the Aam Aadmi Party took funds from a Sikh extremist group.
It echoes a complaint filed on April 1 by the head of the World Hindu Federation India—which claims Kejriwal took $16 million from a pro-Khalistan extremist group called the Sikhs for Justice. It was a quid pro quo for the release of one of its leaders—Davinder Bhullar:
Davinder Pal Singh Bhullar is a convict in the 1993 Delhi bomb blast case. Bhullar was convicted in connection with the killing of nine people and injuring 31 others in a blast outside the Youth Congress headquarters in Delhi. He was arrested after deportation from Germany. In Tihar jail since 1995, Bhullar was awarded death penalty by a designated Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act court in August 2001 but his capital punishment was commuted to life sentence in 2014.
According to the LG, the deal was cut in New York in 2014.
Reminder: The liquor excise case was initiated by the LG, as well. So this does not bode well for Kejriwal.
An intriguing connection: This new allegation connects Kejriwal to Gurpatwant Singh Pannun—who is the head of Sikhs for Justice. Soon after Kejriwal’s arrest, Pannun claimed that AAP received $16 million from Khalistani groups between 2014 and 2022. The LG letter cites the video as evidence, as well.
But Pannun was the target of an alleged assassination plot orchestrated by an Indian intelligence official named Vikram Yadav (See: Big Story on that drama). Yadav allegedly hired a weapons trafficker named Nikhil Gupta to get it done. Wheels within wheels… (Indian Express)
FYI: That case is underway in New York. But Gupta is awaiting extradition in the Czech Republic—which may not happen any time soon. According to Indian Express, the Constitutional Court has halted proceedings based on Gupta’s complaint. Our Big Story has lots more background on these allegations.
A list of good reads
One: Scroll features an interesting interview with Professor Pavithra Suryanarayan on the BJP’s balancing act with upper-castes and welfare schemes.
Two: Scroll also has a very good ground report from Uttar Pradesh’s Sambhal where Muslim voters were not allowed to vote and were allegedly beaten up by the police.
Three: Vir Sanghvi in The Print argues that Rahul Gandhi is returning to Indira Gandhi’s roots with his “caste-warrior and a class-samurai” moves.
Four: BBC News has a feature on the role of influencers in this election season.
A bonus pick: Al Jazeera has a photo essay on an election booth deep inside a Gujarat forest for just one voter.
