Dreaming of 400: Can the BJP do it?

First, a 2019 refresher

There are 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. A party needs 272 for a simple majority. Until 2019, there was a long period where the two national parties had to build a coalition—NDA or UPA—to rule in Delhi. That changed when the BJP single-handedly won a staggering 303 seats in 2019—a jump from 282 in 2014. 

Hindi belt ka maharajah: The party scored its largest haul in the Hindi belt (including Gujarat)—185 out 230. This was lower than 2014—when it scored—197—but mostly because it did not contest as many seats in Bihar—making room for its NDA ally Janata Dal (United). Its share of the vote reached astronomical levels—jumping to a whopping 58% in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, 50.7% in Chhattisgarh, and an eye-popping 60% in Haryana.

As for Congress: It won a pitiful five seats in these states. Rahul Gandhi even lost the family seat in Amethi. The performance of the BJP was especially remarkable in Uttar Pradesh—where Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party formed an alliance to take it down.

In the southern belt: In the five South Indian states plus Puducherry, the BJP won 29 out of 129 seats. But most of these seats came from Karnataka—where its tally went from 17 in 2014 to 25 in 2019. Congress’ number dropped to a single seat—from nine in 2014. 

FYI: Congress’ showing in the South wasn’t all that stellar, either. It only won 28 seats—UPA scored 51 mainly thanks to MK Stalin’s sweep in Tamil Nadu.

2024: The prognosticators say…

Let’s start by stating the obvious: opinion polls have a shaky record when it comes to predicting election outcomes (for reasons explained in the Big Story). The pollsters had a reasonable hit rate back in the 1990s—but have been erratic in recent decades: 

• The 2004 UPA win is the best-known shocker—when India decided it wasn’t quite ‘shining’—and ousted the ruling BJP-coalition. 
• The 2009 surveys didn’t expect Congress to retain power—but when the results came in, the UPA haul had jumped from 222 to 262. 
• The surveys were pretty much bang on for 2014—predicting the rise of Narendra Modi—and Congress’ lowest ever total (44). 
• But the pundits promptly dropped the ball in 2019—predicting a modest 285 seats for the NDA—as opposed to the actual total of 353.

Now, about 2024: This time around, surveys have been unanimous in predicting a gargantuan win for the NDA—ranging between 330 and 390 seats. Here’s a quick look  at the big ones:  

• NDTV’s poll of polls—which looked at results of nine surveys—puts the number at 365. That’s a staggering two-third majority—sufficient to pass Constitutional amendments, at least in the Lok Sabha. 
• News18's Mega Opinion Poll predicts a staggering total of 411 for the NDA.
• The Times-ETG gives it between 358 and 398 seats.
• India TV-CNX, Zee News-Matrize, and Times-Matrize all give the NDA over 350 seats each—and expect INDIA to score less than 100 seats. The exception is Times Matrize, which gives the bloc 104 seats.
• The smallest expected margin between the BJP and its rivals is 169 seats. The India Today-C Voter poll predicts: 335 for the NDA, 166 for the INDIA, and 42 for the others. 

But, but, but: Those who actually bet money on this kind of stuff—in the satta market—aren’t quite as upbeat. Right now, the odds favour BJP retaining its 2019 total of 303—and 340-350 seats for the NDA. Nowhere close to a two-third majority of 362 seats—leave alone ‘char sau paar’. 

The path to total domination: Can the BJP do it?

For most of April, it looked like the BJP had given up its chant of ‘char sau paar’—until Modi returned to the theme with great vigour in May. But this time around, the rhetoric was not about what good things would come of that kind of support—but what evils it would prevent:

The Prime Minister said he wanted 400 seats to stop all the conspiracies of the Congress and the INDIA bloc. “Modi needs 400 seats so that the Congress does not bring back Article 370 in Kashmir or put a ‘Babri lock’ on Ram Temple in Ayodhya or gift away the nation’s vacant land and islands to other nations. Modi needs 400 seats so that the Congress does not break into the reservation given to SCs, STs, and OBCs by Baba Saheb [Dr. B.R. Ambedkar] and the Constitution for its vote bank or declare all castes of its vote bank as OBC overnight,” Mr. Modi said.

It’s an oddly defensive position for a party that is considered a shoo-in—and a prime minister who is politically untouchable. Why is that?

The big picture: The 2019 electoral results looked like this: 

Modi’s goal is 400 for the NDA—and 370 for the BJP. To reach the magic number, the BJP will have to sweep or maintain its bastion in the Hindi heartland—and expand into new territories. NDA will have to gain 48 seats compared to 2019—and the BJP will need an added 67. How will they do it?

The all-India strategy #1: Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta divides the map into three groups—where the BJP needs to: 

• Repeat its sweep of 90% of the seats in Maharashtra, Bihar, and Karnataka. The weak link here is Karnataka. 
• Improve its performance in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh—where it won 60% of the seats.
• Make headway in the most hostile territory—Tamil Nadu and Punjab—where it doesn’t have NDA allies anymore.

To break it up differently: 

• The easy category has 262 seats—with more than half in the North. 
• The close contests account for 82 seats—with half of them in the east.  
• Of the remaining long-shots, 98 are in the South—and another 61 are in the northeast.

What the BJP is saying: According to BJP insiders:

• In category 1—the party will exceed its whopping total in Maharashtra (41 out of 48)—by wiping out Uddhav Thackeray.  
• Unlike 2019, it may not fully sweep Hindi belt states like Rajasthan, but it will make up for the modest losses with a far better performance in Uttar Pradesh.
• In category two, the party expects to improve its Bengal tally of 18 out of 42. 
• And up its Odisha total from 8 to 14 out 21 seats. 
• As for Tamil Nadu, the party is talking up a double-digit vote share, and at least two to seven seats—which would be remarkable since it’s currently at zero.

Rating its chances: Anjishnu Das in Indian Express looked at the 133 seats that the BJP lost in 2019. In 72 of these, it came in #2—of which 22 were in Bengal, 16 in UP, 11 in Odisha, and 5 in Tamil Nadu. It explains a lot of the rhetoric coming out of the BJP camp.

All India strategy #2: Reuters takes a different approach—looking at specific elements of BJP’s playbook—that can win new ground:

…enlisting celebrity candidates to unseat veteran opposition lawmakers; making an assault on the opposition's southern strongholds by appealing to minorities such as Christians; and exploiting redrawn political boundaries that bolster the Hindu electorate in some opposition-controlled areas in the north.

The minority route: For example, the BJP is focusing all its efforts on Christians in Kerala—who are 18% of the electorate—and receptive to its anti-Muslim messaging. One ace in the hole is Anil Antony—who became the first BJP candidate to be endorsed by the Church. Even peeling off a single seat in the state is a win—given BJP’s current total of zero. 

The redistricting route: is aimed at reducing the minority vote—not wooing it—by redrawing boundaries in states like Jammu & Kashmir and Assam. The BJP has dramatically increased the numbers of Hindus on electoral rolls in key districts. Example:

In Assam, the NDA has high hopes for Congress-held Barpeta, which alliance candidate Phani Bhushan Choudhury said newly includes dozens of villages and some towns with large Hindu populations. "Earlier (Barpeta) had a Muslim majority but now it is a Hindu majority," said Choudhury. "That change has worked in my favour.

The path to total domination: The reality check

In late April, a report issued by the research and brokerage firm Bernstein Global warned against sky-high expectations of a BJP tsunami: “Somewhere in this noise of news studio debates, we seem to be losing track of ground realities in many states.” Contrary to the hype generated by pollsters, Bernstein predicts the BJP can at best replicate its 2019 performance—and here’s why.

One: Bernstein points out the BJP scored almost 99% of seats in eight crucial states—Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Haryana. It has everything to lose—and not much to gain. Replicating its sweep of the North and West will not be easy: 

Gujarat and Rajasthan, for instance, face agitation from different communities. While Punjab and Haryana are seeing farmer unrest, the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is making waves in the capital, the report said.

Ground reports and low turnouts at the booth seem to indicate low voter enthusiasm in the Hindi heartland—even if BJP carries the states. According to Frontline:

There is a certain ennui with the endless speeches of the Prime Minister, but among some social groups the matter is settled anyway in favour of the BJP… Or, as a group of Jatav Dalits in Uttar Pradesh asserted, why vote for someone else when we get free rations and the BJP will win anyway in Uttar Pradesh? Yet, the questions remain, given that the party is seen as having peaked in these parts. 

Two: The Bernstein report notes that less friendly regions are critical to expanding the BJP total—but none of it will be a “cakewalk.” And the gains may be too modest to make dent:

The inroads in Kerala, though historic, will likely be limited to 1-2 seats. Even Tamil Nadu is not expected to be much fruitful. The gains must come from Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal and Odisha. Many of these will see closely fought contests, with seats swinging wildly.

About those opinion polls: Those sky-high totals for the BJP/NDA are predicated on large gains in the South. Take, for example, the ABP-CVoter survey, which says NDA will “clinch a thumping victory” with 373 seats—including 323 for the BJP. This requires the BJP-JD(S) coalition winning 23 out of 28 seats in Karnataka—i.e mostly holding its ground. And the NDA (Telugu Desam) scoring another 20 seats in Andhra Pradesh. Similarly, the India TV-CNX Poll is convinced the BJP will go from zero to hero in Tamil Nadu (4 seats) and Kerala (3 seats)—plus 22 in Karnataka and five in Telangana. They all seem unlikely except for the last.

Speaking of reality checks: The BJP currently has 29 seats in these states—minus Puducherry. Of these, 25 are in Karnataka—and the other four are in Telangana. Congress just won huge victories in both states. BJP is guaranteed to lose at least some ground. 

Point to note: Regional polls in the South are far less optimistic about an NDA performance. The Mathrubhumi News-P-MARQ Poll predicts 0-1 seats for the NDA in Kerala. Another example: The Eedina survey in Karnataka gives Congress a decisive win of 17 seats. 

Also this: Other than five seats in Tamil Nadu—where its ally AIADMK won—the BJP itself didn’t even come in at #2 in most South Indian contests:

In another 31 seats, including 14 in Kerala and 9 in Telangana, the BJP was placed third. In 7 seats, 4 of them in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP was placed fourth. In 23 seats, 20 of them in Andhra, the BJP finished fifth, sixth or seventh.

The bottomline: As The Wire notes: “For the BJP to live up to its 370-seat goal, it needs to retain every seat it currently holds, win back the 14 seats eroded in course of the Lok Sabha’s tenure and win 67 additional seats.” That’s far, far more difficult than the TV pundits pretend.

Reading list 

Reuters has a good piece on the BJP strategy to gain new ground. India Today asked the pundits to chart a path for the party—and offers a more detailed breakdown here. For sceptical takes on the 400-seat target, read The Wire and Al Jazeera. For an upbeat assessment, read MoneyControl. The Diplomat and Bloomberg News explain why the BJP is unlikely to advance in South India. Business Standard has more on the Bernstein report. Check out the ABP-C Voter survey and the NDTV poll of polls to get a flavour of the predictions.