Most conversations about the BJP bastion centre on Uttar Pradesh—making the party seem invincible. But Bihar has always been slippery—and may slip out of the saffron party’s grasp. The larger battle in this election is between welfare and jobs. Which does the voter want more?
First, a quick primer on Bihar
For the past couple of years, Bihar politics has been all about the ‘paltu’ Chief Minister—Nitish Kumar. He has been jumping from one party to another—to save himself from irrelevance.
The 2020 state election: The Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and his son Tejashwi—emerged as the single largest party—with 75 seats. But the BJP and Nitish’ JDU teamed up to form the government. The election also marked a significant shift in power in their relationship. The BJP scored way more seats than its ally JDU: 74 vs 43. At the time, the consensus was that PM Modi’s personal popularity had saved Nitish’s backside.
Point to note: There was also a lot of chatter about the BJP’s long game—to slowly but surely eliminate Nitish—which is why the spooked CM jumped again.
The 2022 defection: Nitish remained in power primarily on the BJP’s sufferance—his party’s base continued to shrink—slowly eaten up by its so-called ally. He felt increasingly sidelined and snubbed. More importantly, the catastrophic fate suffered by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (See: this Big Story) in Maharashtra made him jittery. So Nitish abandoned the NDA to join the mahagathbandhan with Congress, RJD et al—and held on to the CM gaddi.
The 2024 defection: WIth Lok Sabha elections round the corner, Nitish became restless again. He felt sidelined in the INDIA alliance—which was his brainchild—by an uppity Rahul Gandhi. More importantly, when Nitish ran alone in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, he won only two seats. In 2019, the JDU-BJP alliance scored 33 of 40 seats—splitting the spoils almost equally. The BJP won 17—while JDU scored 16. The benefits of a BJP partnership were crystal clear. So Nitish jumped again.
The Lok Sabha picture: In 2019, the NDA consisted of BJP, JDU and LJP—the party of backward caste giant Ram Vilas Paswan. Together, they swept 54.34% of the votes—and 39 out of 40 seats.
But, but, but: If you break down the vote share among individual parties, it looks like this: BJP got around 24% and JDU made 22%. But Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD did quite well with 15.7%—even if it got zero seats.
Ok, so the NDA sweeps again?
It’s complicated. With the massive Hindi belt sweep in the state elections last year, Modi+Mandir combo seems as powerful as ever. OTOH, Bihar’s always been a special case—more invested in caste than religion. But the larger battle in this election is between welfare and jobs. Which does the voter want more?
Caste is king: in Bihar. The rise of Lalu Yadav and later Nitish Kumar have made backward castes the kingmakers in this state. But corralling the 200 castes and subcastes into a single alliance is no easy feat. The BJP has responded to the challenge by building a very large umbrella—with a number of small parties. Each represents a specific subcaste or caste that matters in specific seats.
OTOH: Tejashwi Yadav has gone the M-Y BAAP route. Yes, that’s exactly what it’s called. The M-Y stands for Muslims+Yadavs—which is the RJD’s core base. The BAAP represents Bahujan, Agda (upper castes), Aadhi Aabadi (women), and Poor. It all sounds complicated, but caste doesn’t tell you much in itself. It’s really about how they woo these voters.
Will vote for food: Welfare schemes are the BJP glue—with Modi playing the great benefactors:
The local JD(U) leader said Modi’s name alone unites EBC, Dalit, and women voters because of the Centre’s various labharthi (beneficiary) schemes, from free rations and Ayushman health cards to Ujjawala LPG connections. “JD(U) and BJP candidates are campaigning on Modi’s name as they know the Opposition will find it difficult to attract any social group beyond Muslims and Yadavs,” he said.
Welfare is a powerful lure for the Extremely Backward Castes—who literally have nothing other than their vote to trade:
The reality is that there are 130-odd EBC castes, and most of them are attracted by the NDA’s labharthi schemes.” Daily wager Chulhai Paswan, a Dalit from Bairgachhi village of Purnia, said, “Free ration is a winning scheme. Jo khana de raha hai, usko to support karna hi chahiye” (one who is supplying food must be supported).
About those women voters: They have turned out in droves to vote this year—far more than men. And most of them vote BJP precisely because of those benefits:
One reason for the higher turnout among women in Bihar in the past few elections, including Assembly polls, has been the NDA’s success in creating a “caste-neutral” constituency among women. For Modi, women, along with the poor, farmers, and the youth, are the target group for his welfare schemes. In the PM’s words, women are one of the “four biggest castes”.
Nitish has been just as adept at keeping the women in his state happy—by banning alcohol, doling out school fee waivers and free cycles to girls. The women’s logic is no different than others: “Jiska khayenge usi ko vote denge na” (We will vote for one giving us grains)—more so since many Dalit families don’t have breadwinners.
Data point to note: Around 34% of residents of Bihar are “multidimensionally poor”—i.e. in terms of health, education, and standard of living. It is #1 in the nation. Benefits are life and death for them..
Where are the jobs? Welfare benefits may throw Biharis a lifeline—but they do not offer a future. Unemployment was one of the two top issues named by voters in pre-election surveys—along with inflation. The unemployment rate may seem modest—3.9% against an all-India average of 3.2%. But it only measures those actively looking for a job—not all those who have given up. The real number that matters is Bihar’s dependency ratio—which is 67.1%—as in, two-thirds of the population is dependent on the remaining third.
Prasad or paisa? There are signs that at least some voters view the temple as ‘nice to have’—not a ‘need to have’. As one storekeeper says:
After all, roti is always more important than Ram. ‘Bhukhe bhajan na hoi Gopala (you cannot worship god with an empty stomach)’. Let there be more employment opportunities in our backyard.
Btw, there is already talk of ‘Hindutva fatigue’ in the broader Hindi belt—which may or may not be wishful thinking.
The Tejashwi factor: That’s why Lalu’s heir is placing all his bets on unemployment. As deputy chief minister to Nitish, Tejashwi claims he created 500,000 government jobs—much to Nitish’s outrage. He’s now promising 1 million (10 lakh)—as is the BJP. There is no doubting Yadav Jr’s rising popularity—and political chops. He is credited with engineering RJD’s stellar showing in the last assembly elections—when it emerged as the largest party.
Also a strength: Tejashwi seems to have mastered the art of mocking Modi—giving him a taste of the medicine he doles out to Rahul Gandhi:
"Mujra, mutton, machhali, mangalsutra, musalmaan, mandir," RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav carefully picked up the words starting with 'M' (ma in Hindi) earlier used by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and threw them back at him for "whining all the time"... "Modi ji is obsessed with the letter 'M', but can't even mention the 'M' of mehengai (inflation)," the RJD leader says.
His tactics often border a TikTok brand of campaigning—with taunts, rhymes, improvised slogans—even Bollywood songs:
Tejashwi Yadav is the most dangerous kind of neta: He makes his voters laugh.
There’s always Modi-ji: For now, there’s no indication any of this trolling has affected the Prime Minister’s teflon-like popularity. However disillusioned the voters may be with Nitish, their trust in Modi remains undented. Irony alert: Nitish’s rise was fuelled by the poorest Biharis—who now don’t even mention his name:
In Jehanabad town, Jevan Kushwaha remarked that even if he asked his wife to vote for the RJD, she would not listen. “During Modi ji’s tenure, we have got a toilet, a cooking gas and 5 kg of rice each month.” A huge number of these scheme beneficiaries, largely belonging to the Economically Backward Classes and Dalits, who still swear by Modi. There aren’t many who talk about Nitish Kumar—the man who has been the chief minister of Bihar for the last 18 years.
One unexpected thing to note: Many Dalits are angry at Nitish for making Bihar a dry state—which they view as a pro-rich policy:
“Look, I am a poldaar (daily wagers who lift weight). If I don’t get a drink after the day’s work, I will not be able to sleep in the night. But we are the ones facing the police crackdown, the rich get away with bribes,” says Raju Mandal, a Kurmi, at Dhankaul Bazaar in Sheohar. Mandal has been arrested thrice for being found drunk.
But they will still vote for the NDA because of Modi.
The bottomline: The welfare vs jobs schism may well work in the BJP’s favour. The voters will blame Nitish for unemployment—and thank Modi-ji for putting food on their empty plate. It just has to hope they do so in each of the 16 seats given to JDU—otherwise that 2019 NDA total of 39 is going to drop.
Reading list
Indian Express has the state of play in Bihar—and why voters don’t blame Modi. The Print has a very good piece on why this election is about Modi—not Nitish. India Today offers eye-opening stats on the poverty in Bihar—plus Tejashwi’s cheeky style of campaigning. The Wire and Scroll have admiring pieces on Yadav Jr. The Print looks at voter fatigue in the Hindi heartland.
