The TLDR: Contrary to all those exit polls predicting defeat, the BJP and its ally Nitish Kumar pulled out the proverbial rabbit from the electoral hat. The spoils of this victory, however, belong entirely to the BJP—and spell trouble for Nitish. Consolation prize winner: Tejashwi Yadav. The all-round loser: Congress, of course!

Very quick background

We did a detailed curtain-raiser on the election last month. But here are the basic deets about the contestants:

• The ruling NDA consists of the BJP and the Janata Dal (U) led by current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar—along with smaller local parties. 
• The Rashtriya Janata Dal—once led by Lalu Prasad Yadav and now his son Tejashwi Yadav—is allied with its traditional partners: Congress and three communist parties. Shorthand name: Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan.
• The spoiler: Lok Janshakti Party once led by Dalit powerhouse Ram Vilas Paswan, and now his son Chirag.

Why this election matters: It is the first election since the outbreak of the pandemic. So if there are any signs of ‘corona rage’—either against Nitish in the state or BJP at the centre—they will show up here.

Ok, tell me who won

NDA has won 125 seats compared to the Grand Alliance’s 110. Total number of Assembly seats: 243. Number required for majority: 122.

Key numbers to note:

• The BJP now has more seats than its ally Nitish’s JDU: 74 vs 43.
• Tejashwi’s RJD is now the single-largest party with 75 seats.
• Congress managed a paltry 19 wins.
• Expected spoiler, Chirag’s LJP won only one seat out of the 137 it contested.

What do those numbers mean?

Let’s break down what they mean for each party.

The BJP: This is a huge win for the saffron party that vastly improved on its performance since the last election. So it’s now officially in the driver’s seat in this alliance. And it is testament to PM Modi’s enduring popularity—which is what BJP leaders cite as the main cause of this victory:

“Leaders said Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity had shielded the BJP from the Nitish government’s anti-incumbency. Modi had addressed around a dozen rallies in Bihar and written a last-minute letter appealing to the state’s voters that he needed a Nitish-led NDA government for development. Party leaders said Modi had not only helped the BJP to gain a towering position in Bihar but also rescued Nitish from sinking.”

In other words, Modi-ji saved Nitish-ji’s backside. But the same leaders also took pains to emphasise that Nitish will remain the Chief Minister. The likely reason: The BJP still doesn’t have the votes to go it alone. And it is still not the biggest party in the state—which is now Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD.

Point to note: BJP is doing well across the country—winning 41 out of the 59 by-elections held yesterday. And 31 of them were wrested from Congress.

The LJP: Led by Chirag Paswan—son of the iconic Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan—the party stormed out of the NDA alliance. And then he took direct aim at Nitish, while making sweet noises about the BJP. Rumours swirled of a secret BJP plot to use Chirag to weaken Nitish—and emerge as the largest party in the state. 

The BJP’s rumoured strategy has worked. LJP damaged JDU in about 75 seats. But it only scored one seat—the lowest ever for the party. Chirag’s own hopes of playing ‘kingmaker’—in a close election where NDA would need LJP’s seats to rule—have been entirely dashed. His future now depends on the generosity of the BJP:

“It remains to be seen whether the BJP will forgive the LJP enough to give it the Rajya Sabha berth vacated on Ramvilas Paswan’s death and whether Mr. Paswan gets the Cabinet berth his father had?”

Congress party: has done very poorly, with most news stories dubbing it the “weakest link” in the Grand Alliance. It has won only 19 of the 70 seats. Most of the losses were in direct contests with the BJP. One factor denting its performance: Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, the AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen)—which has now won a record five seats.

Point of comparison: The three Left parties—CPI(ML), CPM, and CPI—won 16 of the 29 seats that they contested.

Nitish Kumar’s JDU: The biggest loser in this election is Nitish Kumar—even though he will remain CM. The election was essentially a vote on his performance as a three-term Chief Minister. And he seems to have scored a solid C-plus—with his party poised to lose up to 30 seats. Worse, his CM gaddi is now being framed as a gift from a generous BJP:

“It’s a victory for the BJP and Prime Minister Modi. But as per our promises, we are committed to offer the Chief Minister’s post to Nitish Kumar. It’s up to the morality of Nitish Kumar to decide what to do.”

Nitish’s true saviours, however, are extremely backward caste voters and women who have remained by his side. These “silent voters”—rarely reflected in opinion polls—saved his face at the voting booth. And that is why—despite all the hot air—BJP cannot throw him by the wayside.

The RJD: The party’s performance is a big win for Tejashwi Yadav—who has tried to lead his party out of his father Lalu’s shadow. And he did his best to broaden his party’s appeal—breaking from narrow caste appeals to talk instead about unemployment and economic justice or “aarthik nyay.” But in the end, mere anger at Nitish—and his party’s traditional Muslim-Yadav alliance—wasn’t enough to carry the day. That said, he has plenty to be happy about.

The bottomline: A BJP leader summed up his party’s long game in Bihar:

“Unlike in past governments with Nitish, the BJP can assert itself. We have almost succeeded in making Bihar politics bipolar. Once Nitish Kumar is out of the political scene, it is BJP versus RJD in Bihar.”

Reading list

Indian Express, Times of India and The Telegraph have the best overviews—though each has their own slant. The Hindu has an interesting analysis of Nitish’s silent voters. Huffington Post looks at the surprisingly strong performance of the Left parties. Indian Express has a good analysis of Tejashwi Yadav’s performance. A very good read: The Hindu on how unemployment finally became an issue in the election. Our previous explainer also offers a big picture view of the election and its issues.