The ‘Hindi, Hindu, Hindutva’ voter

India is becoming more saffron by the minute. Hindu rashtra is round the corner. Or: Indians’ faith in secularism is as strong as ever! The Ganga-Jamuna culture is alive and well! Which is true? The answer usually depends on which set of numbers you look at.

Take, for instance, the latest pre-poll survey from CSDS. Here’s the feel-good result for one of the questions:

An overwhelming number, 79% of those surveyed in the CSDS-Lokniti poll, aver that “India belongs to all religions equally, not just Hindus”, with only 11% saying that “India belongs only to Hindus”. This belief in plurality was more pronounced in urban areas (85% in towns and 84% in cities) and higher among the educated (83%) as compared to those with no schooling (72%).

But, but, but: In the same survey, 48% said the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya will “consolidate Hindu identity.” If you break up that 48% total in terms of religion, the percentage of Hindus who agree with that statement—54%—is way higher than Muslims (24%) or other minorities (22%).  The sentiment was also stronger among the rich (58%) and upper castes (59%). 

Wait a second—surely the rich and upper castes are also most of the “educated”—of which 83% say India belongs to all religions. What’s going on here? 

The problem with surveys is that they often confirm that old adage about opinions and a**holes—as in everyone has one. Holding a belief doesn’t necessarily predict behaviour—especially how you vote. What’s more important is to establish the link between religion and voting behaviour. The CSDS survey implies a connection—but doesn’t establish it. Happily, the folks over at Pew were less coy.

Is that really the BJP voter?

In 2021, the Pew Research Center conducted a comprehensive survey on ‘Religion in India’. It asked an interesting set of nesting questions. And it helpfully isolated the views of Hindu respondents from the others. Here are the agree/disagree statements presented to Hindu voters—and the results:

• I believe being Hindu is very important to being Indian: 64%
• I believe speaking Hindi is very important to being Indian: 59%
• I believe both being Hindu and speaking Hindi is important to being Indian: 51%

A regional/linguistic divide: The connection between ‘Hindu’ and ‘Hindi’ is important and revealing. Consider this: A full 80% of Hindus who say it is very important to be Hindu to be truly Indian—also say it is very important to speak Hindi to be truly Indian. To put it more bluntly, 80% of those who think being Hindu makes you Indian—also say speaking Hindi makes you Indian. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see a strong regional skew here. Hindus outside the Hindi belt are unlikely to correlate their identity with language.

The final connection to voting behaviour: So how powerful are these beliefs in predicting voting behaviour? In other surveys, this last bit seems obvious. If you believe being Hindu or Hindi is important, of course you will vote for the BJP. The Pew survey seems to confirm the same: “In the 2019 national elections, 60% of Hindu voters who think it is very important to be Hindu and to speak Hindi to be truly Indian cast their vote for the BJP.”  

But, but, but: This is where it’s interesting to revisit that regional skew—which is now laid out in far starker terms—with voting behaviour thrown in to complete the picture. First, let’s look at how Pew defines North, Northeast, South, West, Central and East India. The so-called Hindi belt is splintered across North, Central and East regions. But South, West and Northeast are pretty straight-forward.

Now, let’s look at what the regional numbers tell us: 

The obvious case: Central India seems the most straight-forward—as it consists entirely of the Hindi-speaking states—Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand. It has the highest percentages of Hindu voters who believe being Hindu (83%) and speaking Hindi (87%) is important to be Indian—and the highest number that voted for the BJP (65%). Also: the highest percentage (53%) that tick all the boxes (all of the above): Hindi=Indian, Hindu=Indian, and BJP gets my vote. It confirms every assumption we make about the ‘Hindi, Hindu, Hindutva’ voter—and ideology. 

Now, consider the Northeast: where 73% of Hindu voters opted for the BJP—even higher than the Hindi-speaking ‘Central’ region. But only 39% of them subscribe to the importance of being Hindu and speaking Hindi—respectively. And only 19% are in the ‘all of the above’ category. The connection between the ‘Hindi, Hindu, Hindutva’ mindset and the BJP voter is weaker—but still significant.

Move to the South: Here 42% say being Hindu is very important to being Indian. But the link with Hindi is far weaker (27%)—which is no surprise. Even lower: The number of Hindu voters who voted BJP—19%. And the ‘all of above’ number is just plain abysmal—5%!  But here’s what is striking in the South: there is very little correlation between those who place a high value on Hindu-ness (42%)–and those who voted BJP (19%). Forget Hindi, even the Hindutva-BJP connection is weak.

One last map: You can see the percentage of Hindu voters who opted for the BJP—as per the CSDS post-poll survey in 2019. We don’t have CSDS numbers for all the states. But we’ve mapped what we have onto the Pew map—divided into Pew-defined regions.  

Our main takeaway: We can’t assume that Hindu voters who don’t vote BJP are not Hindu nationalists. They may well place a high value on Hindu identity—but it doesn’t determine how they vote (See: South). Conversely, just because voters place less value on being Hindu or speaking Hindi, it doesn’t make them less likely to vote BJP (see: Northeast). The relationship between Hindi, Hindu, and BJP is more complex than mainstream analysis—on the Hindi heartland—suggests.