Researched by: Sara Varghese & Sheya Kurian

Tell me about this no confidence vote…

The committee: As per Tory party rules, the vote is called by the 1922 committee. This is a group of backbench (less senior) MPs who meet to discuss party matters. And it is currently chaired by Sir Graham Brady. The vote is triggered if 15% of party MPs—54 out of the current strength of 359—write letters to the committee expressing no confidence in the Prime Minister. And that’s exactly what happened over the weekend.

The vote: was conducted last evening. In the end, 211 MPs voted for Johnson—and 148 against. In percentages, that’s a 59-41 split. This means Johnson stays in office—but his support is lower than the 63% received by then Prime Minister Theresa May in 2018. But she then quit her post within six months—unable to forge a consensus over Brexit. OTOH, Margaret Thatcher survived a similar vote in 1990 with just 55%.

What Boris said: The PM did his best to put lipstick on this political pig—declaring:

“I think this is a very good result for politics and for the country. I think it’s a convincing result, a decisive result. And what it means is that, as a Government, we can move on and focus on the stuff that I think really matters to people.”

But, but, but: His dismal Tory numbers mean that Johnson has effectively lost his majority support in Parliament—if you add in the Opposition—and is essentially a lame duck PM when it comes to policy.

Why is his own party upset with him?

For a number of good reasons—most of them are self goals by BoJo.

One: Boris Johnson’s biggest asset was that he could win elections—leading his party to a landslide victory in 2019—despite all the chaos over Brexit. But his popularity has been plummeting in recent months—and there is great danger that he will take his party down with him. Just look at the numbers:

• Only 26% approved of Johnson’s performance as of early May—while his disapproval ratings had climbed to 68%. 
• According to a recent poll of grassroots members of his own party, his rating is at minus-15—making him the least popular member of his own party.
• Latest national survey also shows that the Tories are on track to lose the next election—with Labour enjoying an eight-point lead with 39% of the vote.
• The same polls also show Johnson losing his own seat to Labour.
• Also not helping: The Tories got whipped in the recent local council elections held in early May—losing in many of their strongholds. These polls are considered to be a key barometer of public opinion.

Video to note: The Queen’s jubilee celebrations offered the most damning indicator of Johnson’s political stock. The PM and his wife were booed by the crowds outside St Paul’s cathedral—and as one MP noted, most of them were likely Tory voters: “These are ardent royalists who will have got there at four in the morning, not vegetarian Guardian readers.” See the clip below: 

Two: The real problem is that Johnson’s unpopularity is well-earned. The country has been reeling from the pandemic and rising inflation—which has lowered the standard of living to the lowest levels since the 1950s. And PartyGate—which revealed Johnson and his aides boozing it up during the Covid lockdown—made him look like Marie Antoinette. It played a big role in swinging votes in the recent local elections.

Key point to note: But Johnson’s solutions to the economic crisis are also likely to piss off his own party. For example, he recently announced a £15 billion ($18.9 billion) support package to help citizens deal with rising inflation—but was immediately attacked by Tories for abandoning conservative principles. Also not popular: a 25% levy on oil and gas companies to help fund his support package. Though Johnson is now promising tax cuts to help soothe the cranky Tories.

So what happens next?

On paper, Johnson is safe from another no confidence vote for a year. But Tory rebels say they are not done trying to oust Johnson—and even his allies admit this may be the “beginning of the end.”

Two key elections: While Johnson may have survived the no confidence vote, his biggest test is around the corner: key by-elections where Conservatives will battle to hold on to two seats. One of these usually leans Labour while the other is a Tory bastion. Losing both would be a disaster for Johnson who made an impassioned speech to the 1922 committee before the vote—promising to win the next national election:

“Let’s show this country that we understand that this is a moment to unite and to serve. And if we can do that, then believe you me, whatever they may say about me I will lead you to victory again, and the winners will be the people of this country.”

Tory rebels hope a by-election defeat will be the proverbial straw that breaks Johnson’s back—finally peeling off the remainder of his support. 

A Partygate inquiry: Soon there will be an inquiry into whether the PM misled Parliament—when he denied Downing Street broke any Covid rules. This again will offer the rebels to damage his cause. As one Opposition leader points out, Johnson now enjoys the support of less than a third of the MPs.

A quiet step down: This was the fate of Theresa May—who was eventually “persuaded” to walk away despite winning the vote of no confidence. It also helped Tony Blair out of office in 2007:

“Once this was known as a visit from the ‘men in gray suits’... when a group known as the ‘magic circle’ chose the Conservative leader, such bigwigs could withdraw support, too, and ask the prime minister to resign. Nowadays, things aren’t quite like that, but leaders can still be persuaded to depart on their own terms rather than endure being booted out.”

Point to note: It is all very well to overthrow the king, but there is no consensus on who would replace him.

The bottomline: Boris ‘the survivor’ Johnson has all the skills of a winning reality show contestant—which is all very well for BoJo but not so great for Britain.

Reading list

BBC News has a good overview of the vote. The Guardian has more on what the rebels plan next. New York Times offers a guide to the road forward. The Week looks at whether the Tories can win the next election. The Telegraph (paywall) argues that the vote has torn the Tories apart. Sky News looks at who could replace Johnson—no, it won’t be Rishi Sunak. Bloomberg News looks at the hurdles facing Johnson as he tries to tackle the economic crisis.