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The TLDR: The biggest story in the world right now is the gargantuan second wave in India. And TBH, there aren’t any aspects that we haven’t already explained—be it vaccine shortages or the double mutant variant or the size of this wave.  So we’re doing a roundup of the biggest stories related to the wave—to give you the big picture of the mess we find ourselves in. 

First, the numbers 

We added a staggering 2,16,642 cases on Thursday, and 1,153 new deaths. Here’s how bad it is: We now account for one in four cases reported around the world. We are #1 in the number of daily new cases. Our closest rival is the US at an average of 71,200 cases. We are also #2 in the number of deaths, second only to Brazil which has a daily average of 3,000.

Dizzying acceleration: The graph of daily new cases looks shockingly like this:

A Hindu comparison of the first and second wave shows just how quickly the numbers are rising this time around. The numbers for June 12, 2020 and February 16, 2021 are roughly similar—11,320 and 11,795, respectively. Over eight weeks, the 2020 numbers jumped to 61,455. In the second wave, that number went up to 1,85,248! So we’re accelerating at 2.8X the speed of the first round.

Also alarming: Compared to the first wave, we have roughly double the percentage of people in ICUs, on oxygen support or on a ventilator.

Point to remember: Our official numbers are woeful underestimates because we are still only testing a fraction of the population. Serological surveys indicate that the actual number is 26-32 times the reported number:

“If accurate, that math would put the real number of COVID-19 infections to date in India somewhere around 400 million—more than the entire population of the United States. ‘400 million infections in a country the size of India still means that a billion people are not infected,’ Laxminarayan says. ‘So there’s still plenty of room for infection, even with a lot of people [already] being infected.’”

Underreported deaths

One big worry is that a number of states are wilfully under-reporting deaths.

Uttar Pradesh: The state’s numbers are alarming. It has 111,835 active cases—of which a whopping 54,645 are under treatment at a government or private hospital. And there are a lot more bodies at the crematorium. At one crematorium in Lucknow, on Thursday, the number of bodies was 78—up from 60 a week ago and 20 a month ago. Yet the state government reported only 104 coronavirus deaths from across the state. Not helping matters, the government’s effort to hide the temporary pyre beds behind tin sheets:

Madhya Pradesh: Bhopal crematoriums say they have not seen these many bodies since the gas tragedy in 1984. They’ve literally run out of space: 

“Ambulances could be seen lining up with bodies as many waited on the roadside for their turn to perform funerals, looking for space to set up pyres. Santosh Raguvanshi, who had come to cremate his brother-in-law, said he had been waiting for three-four hours. "We can't perform the last rites as there is no space."

There were 37 bodies at that one crematorium—but the exact same number was released as the statewide count on the same day.

Gujarat: is the worst offender. It has already breached its official record with 81 reported new deaths on Thursday. But that number does not match news reports from the crematoriums and hospitals. The single biggest hospital in Vadodara has reported 180 Covid-related deaths in just the last nine days. And clubbed with figures from another major hospital, the total comes to 350 in a week! 

Another stunning example: In Bharuch, the official number of deaths since the beginning of the pandemic is a lowly 36. Yet, in one crematorium, 260 Covid victims were cremated since April 7. Also: according to local news reports, all 16 crematoriums in Surat have been operating non-stop for a week—with some claiming that they handle 100 bodies a day. It’s so bad that a metal grill on the furnace at one such crematorium melted because of the round-the-clock use.

Point to note: The workers at these crematoriums are overworked and exploited. See this video report from Delhi on the lack of any safety equipment:

Meanwhile at the Kumbh Mela…

The head of the second largest akhada (ascetic group) has died due to Covid complications—and the akhada is planning to leave the Mela en masse. The reason: “most of the saints and their followers” in the camps are exhibiting Covid symptoms.  This is after 68 of the top sadhus tested positive between April 5 and 14. Apparently, most of the saints may opt out of the next shahi snan. 

Point to note: At least 1,700 attendees have tested positive over the last five days. But the level of testing remains woefully low. The far higher number for Haridwar: 2000 cases over the past five days. Meanwhile, Uttarakhand has capped the number for all gatherings at 200—but given an exemption to the Mela. Unsurprisingly, experts are worried that when the Mela ends, the attendees will take the virus with them: 

“It is difficult to stop the transmission in rural areas now. A vaccine is not going to stop transmission even if it is given to all those who are going back to their homes."

Point to note: Everyone agrees that the vaccines will not be able to end the second wave. We just can't get enough people inoculated in time.

Doing far better: Varanasi whose officials have urged tourists not to visit the city. Also, this temple in Etah, Uttar Pradesh—which is making sure that both Ma Durga and her devotees are safe by distributing masks as prasad. 

As for elections: A Congress candidate in Bengal has died due to Covid. Mamata Banerjee has asked that the last two phases be clubbed into one. But the Election Commission has refused to oblige. But the CM has also made clear that she will not comply on any curbs on large rallies. So expect more of this, summed up perfectly by Neha Sharma:

The variant question

The latest data from Maharashtra shows that 61% of the samples were infected by the made-in-India double mutant variant called B.1.617 (explained here). This is based on genome sequencing conducted on 234 samples from 18 districts. 

But, but, but: Experts say that the number of samples is too low to definitively conclude a causal link between the variant and the second wave. To get an accurate answer, at least 1% of samples taken from those tested for Covid must be sequenced every week.

Sequencing stats: With India is presently testing over 100,000 daily, and this would translate to roughly 1,000 genome sequences every week. The number of samples subjected to sequencing to date: 12,000. In other words, we are doing very little to track variants. Our leading virologist Dr Gagandeep Kang says:

“We need to track mutation real time. I am worried about the quality of surveillance since we are overwhelmed with cases… We know that the South African variant is more capable of escaping immune response. We know that the UK variant is the most transmissible. But we know nothing about the B.1.617 variant. Because we are not putting together data to draw conclusions.”

Lack of direction: Maharashtra has complained that the union government has done very little to help the state get a firm grasp of the variant’s behaviour:

“Officials said they had repeatedly asked the Centre if the mutation was of concern and whether a different strategy needs to be adopted. ‘The Centre has maintained that there is no need to change the strategy,’ said Maharashtra Health Secretary Dr Pradeep Vyas.”

And as this Scroll article notes, there is also a shocking lack of resources devoted to sequencing. The result is a total absence of meaningful data that would help us identify where these variants are—and how they are behaving.

Reading list

The Print has an excellent report on the dire situation in UP. Scroll has a good read on why the attempt to downplay the variants has backfired. Mint explains why limited lockdowns are the only option we have to curb the second wave. The Hindu looks at the dynamics of the second wave. The Telegraph has an important read on why hunger is a greater threat than Covid to migrant workers.