The fall of Amarinder Singh

Captain Singh was sitting pretty after winning the 2017 state elections with a whopping majority. But victory could not rid him of his two nemeses: Navjot Singh Sidhu and Rahul Gandhi. 

Navjot Singh Sidhu: The former cricketer—infamous for his road rage issues—defected from the BJP to Congress just before the 2017 elections. And he has been a thorn in Singh’s side ever since. The Captain appeared to have the upper hand when he kicked Sidhu out of the cabinet. But he has since staged a comeback with the support of rebels who have openly spoken out against Singh. And Sidhu has been blithely accusing Singh of sleeping with the enemy—specifically the Badals who lead the Akali Dal. Despite all his incendiary tactics, the Gandhis recently made Sidhu the state party chief over Singh’s vehement objections.

The tipping point: On Friday, 60 out 80 Congress state MLAs—under the leadership of Sidhu—signed a statement declaring their loss of faith in Singh’s leadership. The powers-that-be in Delhi signalled they would hold a meeting of the Congress Legislature Party to elect a new CM. And Amarinder Singh resigned soon after, lashing out at Sidhu until the very end: 

“Navjot Singh Sidhu is an incompetent man, he is going to be a disaster. I will oppose his name for the next CM face… He is friends with (Pakistan Army chief) Qamar Javed Bajwa and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan.”

Rahul Gandhi: A school friend of Rajiv, Amarinder Singh enjoyed a close relationship with Sonia Gandhi. But Rahul was never warm on Singh—and opposed the decision to appoint him as state party chief in 2015. At that point, Singh played hardball and threatened to start his own party. The result: Singh got the prize position and led the Congress to landslide victory in 2017. But the bad feelings remained… and grew as Rahul first wooed and then backed Sidhu against Singh. It didn’t help that the Captain often undermined Rahul’s attempts to take on the BJP. For example: calling the Jallianwala Bagh memorial “very nice” while Gandhi Jr was busy condemning it as an “insult to martyrs.”

The tipping point: Singh was summoned to Delhi by the leadership thrice in the past month—to explain himself and address Sidhu’s rebellion. Yet, he was not granted an audience with the Gandhis—who, however, had all the time for selfies with Sidhu. Singh became increasingly angry, and wrote a letter to Sonia accusing the party high command of “forcibly interfering” in the Punjab government. Once the writing was on the wall, Singh resigned rather than be pushed out, saying: “The party seemed to have an element of doubt that I could not run the government. I feel humiliated.”

Amarinder hearts BJP? While Singh says “at the moment I am still in Congress,” there is already heated speculation about his next move. He may start his own party, but most political observers are sceptical as to whether it will have any impact. The BJP may offer a more hospitable destination:

“The only way Capt. Amarinder can survive is by joining another party. Floating a new party won’t be an easy task. His best bet could be the Bharatiya Janata Party. Capt. Amarinder has a moderate image and is an acceptable leader among Hindus in Punjab. He has been invoking his military background, national security issues, targeting Navjot Singh Sidhu on his Pakistan connection—it all blends well with the BJP line.”

Was he any good as a CM?

Not really. In fact, the rebel MLAs insist that Congress could lose the election if an unpopular Amarinder Singh was the face of the party. An assessment likely shared by his former advisor and campaign guru Prashant Kishor—who recently quit his post and then held long heart-to-heart talks with the Gandhis. Singh, to be fair, has botched his job in a number of ways.

Bad for jobs/business: Rising unemployment is a big issue in Punjab. Many businesses have left for more attractive destinations, including next door Himachal Pradesh. The only booming industry: coaching centres that promise a future to young people trying to immigrate:

“The IELTS or the International English Language Testing System (for ease of pronunciation, everyone here calls it ‘eyelets’), is necessary for students who want to go abroad for study, migration or work. By all accounts, the IELTS industry is burgeoning daily, feeding on the desperation to leave, of those who no longer see a future in the state.”

Soft on drugs: Amarinder Singh came to power vowing to eradicate the scourge of addiction: “Chaar haftea’ch nashea da lakk tod ke chhaddu” (I will break the backbone of drug addiction in four weeks). But despite all that big talk, Singh has failed to take any action against the biggest drug kingpin: Bikram Singh Majithia—the brother-in-law of Akali leader Sukhbir Singh Badal. This despite the fact that Majithia has been named in multiple special investigations ordered by Singh himself. 

The inaccessible king: A repeated complaint against Singh is that he has isolated himself from the rest of the party—and the public. Surrounding himself with a coterie of close advisers and bureaucrats, he even stopped going to the secretariat altogether—choosing instead to hold court from his farmhouse. And this hands-off approach seemed especially foolish with elections round the corner—even as other parties kicked off their grassroots campaigns.

Soft on the Badals: It doesn’t help that the Captain has not taken any action against the Akali Dal’s first family—even when given the opportunity. One is the drug investigations. The other is what is called the “sacrilege” cases—which date back to 2015 when the Akalis were in power. Essentially, there were a number of cases in which the holy book of the Sikhs was either stolen or defiled. When people rose in protest, the police cracked down—using canes and water cannons and even shooting two protesters. It was one reason why the Badals lost the 2017 elections—but again, investigations into their role in the shootings have gone nowhere.

Point to note: Singh’s biggest problem is that he has never been seen as entirely loyal. And there have been multiple conspiracy theories that link him both to the BJP and the Badals. And that may have been his key reason for his downfall within the party.

Ok, so who is the new Singh?

Channi’s appointment came at the end of a day of fevered speculation and chaos—characteristic of Congress decision-making. First, Sunil Jakhar was going to be CM—but discarded because he is Hindu not Sikh. Then it was the turn of Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa—who was dumped because the leadership suddenly came up with the genius idea of appointing a Dalit CM. Hence, Charanjit Singh Channi. And here’s why he made the cut.

The Dalit vote: 32% of Punjab’s population is Dalit—the highest in the country. The Congress is worried about the Akali alliance with the Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party—which hasn’t made big inroads in Punjab but is still seen as a threat. The Akali Dal has already announced that—if elected—the party will nominate a Dalit deputy CM. So announcing a Dalit CM trumps that card. The bigger worry: the Aam Aadmi Party which has made big inroads into the Dalit vote bank—and is the primary threat in the elections.

The most acceptable choice: Channi is one of Amarinder Singh’s ministers who rose in revolt against him—and has Sidhu’s full backing. And he may be harder for Singh to target since he is Dalit. Also: he is sufficiently low profile as to not pose to Sidhu’s own ambitions.

Stop gap measure: According to most news reports, Channi is a “temporary” CM—and will likely be replaced by Sidhu if he can lead Congress to a big win. In the end, the lure of a winning electoral combo of a Dalit CM and a Jat Sikh party chief won the day.

The bottomline: As a parting thought, here’s the response of Dalit groups to Channi’s appointment: 

“It is merely an election stunt. Channi is a Dalit as well as a Sikh. Punjab will go to the polls in another four-five months and code of conduct will be imposed 40 days before the elections. So what can the new face do? He will just say I am a new person, trying to understand things.”

Reading list

The Telegraph and Indian Express have the best overviews of the drama leading up to Channi’s appointment. The Hindu and Indian Express offer profiles of Channi. Also in The Hindu: Singh’s tumultuous relationship with the Gandhis. The Wire reports on why Congress MLAs—including Channi—rose up in rebellion. The Leaflet explains the sacrilege cases. The Hindu looks at what’s next for Amarinder Singh. The BJP too dumped a CM in Gujarat—swapping out Vijay Rupani for the relatively unknown Bhupendra Patel. Indian Express offers a profile of Patel.