First, a super-quick Sudan 101

The basic deets: The majority of the 39.5 million strong population is Muslim, and they speak Arabic. Sudan is located next door to Egypt—right here:

No, not South Sudan: Gaining its independence in 1956, the nation was once the largest in Africa—until 2011, when it split into two. South Sudan is dominated by mainly Christian and Animist residents—and had been struggling for freedom from the Arab Muslim north.

You may remember: Sudan for two reasons.

• Darfur. The western part of Sudan made global headlines when its non-Arab residents rebelled against then President Omar al-Bashir. He sent in ruthless Arab militias—infamously known as the Janjaweed—who slaughtered hundreds of thousands of people. Bashir has since been charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in the Hague.
• Osama bin Laden. Bashir was also a fervent Muslim and sought to establish an Islamic state. In the 1990s, jihadists came flooding into Sudan—including bin Laden who invested in construction projects, and had a personal relationship with Bashir. In 1993, the US blacklisted Sudan as an international sponsor of terrorism.

The latest coup, explained

First: You need to know this is the 35th coup attempt in Sudan since it achieved freedom in 1956! The most recent was a plot that failed in September. Only five of these have been successful. Strung together on a timeline, it looks like this:

The great uprising: In 2019, tens of thousands of Sudanese took to the streets in popular protests against Bashir—chanting ‘just fall, that’s all’. The crackdown was brutal and 87 were killed in one confrontation when soldiers opened fire. But in the end, the military stepped in and kicked out Bashir—ending his 30-year rule. 

The compromise: At the time, it seemed as though Sudan was going through its version of the Arab Spring—a mass movement that may finally usher in democracy. The military entered into a power-sharing arrangement: A Sovereign Council with military and civilian leaders was created to oversee the eventual transition to full democracy. Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok was appointed as its leader. The plan: to hold elections next year.

The collapse: But within six months of taking power, the pandemic struck, and Sudan plunged into economic recession. Inflation skyrocketed to more than 200%—triggering food riots. Through it all, Hamdok was mostly ineffective and out of sight—unable to devise an effective economic strategy or pressure the military to make significant concessions. But he managed to survive an assasination attempt and an attempted coup in September.

The coup: Yesterday, the military stepped in once again to seize power. Led by General Abdel Fattah Burhan, security forces dissolved the Sovereign Council—and put prominent civilian leaders under house arrest, including Hamdok. Burhan claims he was forced to act due to infighting between politicians—forcing him to “rectify the revolution's course.” And this: “What the country is going through now is a real threat and danger to the dreams of the youth and the hopes of the nation.” He insists that the military will stick to the plan of holding elections next year.

Protests, again: People are flooding the streets again in anger. Seven have been killed, and 140 injured in clashes with soldiers. Political parties are urging citizens to join the demonstrations. For now, the protesters seem determined not to allow Burhan to get away with a coup. See the scenes on the streets below:

Point to note: Many experts say that the military has misjudged the enormity of the backlash. Its other big problem: All key countries and organisations like the US, Arab League and African Union have condemned the coup—and many have already suspended foreign aid. This will pose a significant problem for Burhan as he tries to stabilise his rule.

The lesson in democracy

As we’ve noted, Sudan has long struggled to become a democracy. But it’s not because the people are submissive—or because its political leaders are timid. There are, in fact, between 80-100 political parties in Sudan. But they have rarely been able to reach any kind of consensus—which is necessary to rule and build a nation. In fact, it was this constant state of conflict that ripped the transition government apart.

In an excellent analysis, Magdi Abdelhadi in BBC News argues Sudan suffers from “too much democracy.” In the words of historian Richard Crockett, the price of this “spirited political competition” has been high: “the self-destruction of democracy.” And it has repeatedly created a vacuum that the military has been all too eager to fill: 

“In other words, the tendency to fragment and splinter has been the Achilles heel of Sudan's politics. Time and again failure to compromise and build consensus paved the way for the military to step in, to mount coups under the pretext of rescuing the country from the chaos inflicted upon it by politicians.”

Point to ponder: for us Indians is whether our own political system is experiencing a somewhat similar (not identical) situation with the opposition—which, for all the noise, is unable to come together to offer a coherent national alternative. And this isn’t new. For much of our history, we have had one ultra-strong party and a weak and divided opposition. Indira Gandhi relied on the absence of a strong national rival until the very end—enabling her to rule with an iron hand. The alliance that ousted her in 1977 fell apart within two years—allowing her to bounce right back. Do we also suffer from “too much democracy?”

Reading list

BBC News and Wall Street Journal via Mint have the latest developments. France24 offers a profile of coup leader Burhan. The Guardian explains why the coup may be a mistake. Al Jazeera has more on the power struggle within the civilian government. And be sure to read Magdi Abdelhadi’s analysis in BBC News.