Russia vs Ukraine: A quick recap

Here’s a brief timeline:

• Ukraine used to be part of the Soviet Union—but broke free in 1991, in the same month that the Soviet Union collapsed.
• The country finally came out of the economic woes caused by decades of communism, and began to thrive between 2004-2007.
• But then came Vladimir Putin—who was determined to keep a tight grip on the second–most populous and powerful of the fifteen Soviet republics.
• The flashpoint between the two nations was—and remains—Ukraine’s desire to bind itself closer to the European Union, and free itself from Moscow’s bear hug.
• In 2014—as people protested in the streets in favour of partnering with the EU—Putin sent in troops to annex Crimea. It marked the first time since World War II that a European state annexed the territory of another. 
• And Russian troops joined with local militias to take on Ukrainian troops in an engineered civil war.
• A low grade conflict has been simmering ever since. More than 14,000 have died due to it, the bloodiest in Europe since the 1990s Balkan Wars.

Map to note: You can see where Crimea is located, and the current flashpoint on the border—the so-called Line of Contact in the region marked Donbas.

Ok, so what happened now?

Last week, the US intelligence put forward evidence of a massive Russian build up on the Ukrainian border. The Pentagon claims that Moscow is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year: “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.” Currently, the US estimates there are 70,000 soldiers already at the borders.

The Washington Post published this intelligence document of the alleged build up:

Moscow says ‘nyet’: Putin denied any intent or plan to invade Ukraine in his usual manner:

“It is not we who are threatening anyone and accusing us of this, given the reality on the ground, or as we say to shift the blame from the person who’s sick in the head to the healthy one, is at minimum irresponsible.”

Quote to note: If Russia does go to war, experts say the offensive will be far bigger than the 2014 operation to annex Crimea.

“Russia is not signaling a repeat of its 2014 operations on the Donbas, in fact they are signaling this current situation could be larger and more overt... I am concerned about the impact of Russian air and missile strikes conducting rapid punitive strikes on Ukrainian military facilities or other important locations—in many cases from Russian territory or Russian proxy-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine.”

Why would Putin do this?

The immediate trigger is the fear of NATO expansion into European territory, close to the Russian border. Three former Soviet republics—Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—are already members hosting Western forces on their territory. Ukraine has been conducting joint military drills with US and NATO troops—which Putin warned crossed a “red line.” Here’s how one Carnegie paper sums up Moscow’s view:

“The Kremlin increasingly views Ukraine as a Western aircraft carrier parked just across from Rostov Oblast in southern Russia. Ukraine is now one of the largest recipients of U.S. military assistance, a fact that surely is not lost on anyone in the Russian national security establishment.”

So Putin is asking for “specific agreements that would exclude any further NATO moves eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to Russian territory”—which would essentially leave Ukraine at Moscow’s mercy.

To sum up: Russia sees its former republics as its territory—especially Belarus and Ukraine. NATO has to recognise “a Russian sphere of interest in Eastern Europe” and just back off. And in Putin’s mind, the West “only understand(s) the language of force.” So an invasion of Ukraine is a tempting way to settle the issue. 

More importantly, this: In the Russian psyche, Ukraine is an extension of itself—and views its capital Kyiv as the birthplace of their nation: “One of the colossal problems pushing us into conflict is that Russian identity does not exist without Ukrainian identity.”

Point to note: No one expects Russia to take over Ukraine—or even attempt to do so:

“The plan, the officials and analysts believe, could be to force Ukrainian troops to fight on multiple fronts, seeking not so much territory but rather a capitulation by Kyiv and its Western backers that results in the security guarantees Putin wants.”

What will the West do if Russia invades?

First, much will depend on the outcome of an upcoming virtual summit between Putin and US President Joe Biden—slated for today. Biden plans to warn Putin of severe consequences if Russia walks into Ukraine. According to a senior White House official:

“We have had intensive discussions with our European partners about what we would do collectively in the event of a major Russian military escalation in Ukraine. We believe that we have a path forward that would involve substantial economic countermeasures by both Europe and the United States that would impose significant and severe economic harm on the Russian economy, should they choose to proceed.”

NATO stands firm: NATO secretary general has declared that the alliance’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity “remains unwavering.” And he refused to offer any guarantee that Ukraine will not become a member:

“[E]very sovereign, independent nation has the right to choose its own path, including what kind of security arrangements it wants to be part of. So it is up to Ukraine and 30 allies to decide when Ukraine is ready to join the alliance… [Russia] has no veto, no right to interfere in that process.”

US troop support? Washington has signalled it will send additional forces to Eastern Europe, specifically: “a combination of support for the Ukrainian military, strong economic countermeasures, and a substantial increase in support and capability to our Nato allies to ensure that they remain safe.” But it insists that there will be no “direct use of American military force.”

The big economic stick: The most likely response will be to impose a crippling economic penalty—specifically block Russia from the SWIFT system of financial payments that moves money among thousands of banks around the world. Russia’s oil and natural gas exports account for more than one-third of its federal revenues—and it depends on SWIFT to make the petrodollars flow. 

Russians have warned any such move would be viewed as a “declaration of war.” And Moscow in turn could cut off natural gas supplies to Europe—just in time for winter.

Point to note: Many experts doubt whether Europe or the US will come to Ukraine’s rescue if there is an invasion. OTOH, most Russians do not support a war with Ukraine—and an invasion will likely hurt Putin’s popularity.

The bottomline: Chaos and conflict in Europe will not directly affect Indians. But an economic cold war between Russia and the West will most certainly affect the global economy—which has consequences for all of us.

Reading list

Chatham House and Council on Foreign Relations have good explainers on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Washington Post has details on the Russian buildup on the borders. New York Times and this Carnegie Endowment paper offer excellent analyses of why Ukraine matters so much to Russia. Also worth a read: This Foreign Policy discussion that offers a balanced take on whether Russia will invade Ukraine—and whether the West can do anything about it.