A great explosion in Beirut

The TLDR: A powerful explosion rocked the Lebanese capital killing at least 78, and leaving more than 4,000 injured. The tragedy—whose causes are still unknown—is the cruelest blow to a nation in economic ruin, and reeling from the pandemic.

What happened here? 

 A massive blast located at the port—which struck with the force of a 3.5 magnitude earthquake—flattened great parts of the city. The reverberations were felt as far as Cyprus, which is 200+ km away. This is what it looked like (See also this thread with clips from different angles):

What caused the blast?

Government officials say the explosion was caused by 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse at the dock. The materials had been confiscated from a cargo ship in 2014. But it isn’t clear whether it was deliberately blown up, or went off due to negligence or an accident.

The fireworks mystery: According to eyewitnesses and as shown by some clips (see below), fireworks went off right before the bigger explosion:

 There appear to have been two blasts, one minor followed by a massive blast. The Associated Press reports:

“Videos showed what appeared to be a fire erupting nearby just before, and local TV stations reported that a fireworks warehouse was involved. The fire appeared to spread to a nearby building, triggering the more massive explosion, sending up a mushroom cloud and generating a shock wave.”

Could this be a terrorist attack?

President Trump certainly thinks so. He told reporters:

"It would seem like it based on the explosion. I met with some of our great generals and they just seem to feel that it was. This was not a—some kind of a manufacturing explosion type of a event. ... They seem to think it was a attack. It was a bomb of some kind, yes."

But Lebanese authorities aren’t making any such claims. 

Point to note: ammonium nitrate is used in both fertiliser and explosives—which is why there are strict rules for how it should be stored.

One possible suspect: The Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran. 

• The Shi’ite group—created and backed by Iran—has been designated by many Western countries as a terrorist organisation. But it is a powerful political force in Lebanon, and helped form the current government.
• Recently, there has been tension on the border with Israel—which accused the Hezbollah of trying to infiltrate its territory.
• The blast also comes days before the verdict is to be delivered in a key UN tribunal—which put four members of the Hezbollah group on trial for the 2005 murder of former Sunni Muslim prime minister Rafik al Hariri. 

The other possible suspect: Israel, which has bombed Beirut many times over the course of Lebanese history—and routinely flies over the city. While residents reported hearing planes, an Israeli official insists that Jerusalem “had nothing to do” with the blast—and has offered emergency assistance via intermediaries. 

You mentioned the pandemic…

The economy has been in a state of collapse since late last year. And the virus just added to Lebanon’s mountain of woes.

An economy in tatters: This is how bad it is:

• The nation’s unemployment rate is at 25%, and nearly 65% of the population (3.25 million) has slipped into poverty. 
• Its public debt-to-GDP ratio—what a country owes compared to what it produces—is the third highest in the world. 
• As the New York Times notes: “People have lost their life savings overnight, and prices of food and basic goods have inflated over 50% for the third month in a row.”
• The people endure daily power cuts. There is very little safe drinking water or access to healthcare. Point to note: The explosion destroyed one of the few hospitals in Beirut.
• The reason for this misery: Lebanon relied heavily on imports. So when its currency went into freefall in October—collapsing 80% in value—so did the economy.
• The economic suffering triggered widespread protests which toppled the government. But the new one hasn’t done much better.

The pandemic effect: While Lebanon’s Covid numbers are relatively low—5,062 cases, 65 deaths—the lockdowns have had a disproportionate effect on an already reeling economy. Prices have risen even further, and now people are holding “hunger protests.” The country recently went into a second lockdown until August 10 due to a spike in numbers. Prime Minister Hassan Diab himself wrote in the Washington Post: “Many Lebanese have already stopped buying meat, fruits and vegetables, and may soon find it difficult to afford even bread."

The bottomline: ◼️

Reading list

Associated Press has the best reporting on the blast. Reuters offers more background on the Hezbollah. BBC News put together a great explainer on Lebanon’s economy. A must read: This powerful New York Times op-ed that captures a nation’s suffering. Also: Lebanon PM Diab’s op-ed in the Washington Post.