The TLDR: Back in June, while we were obsessed with Covid-19, the government released the first-ever report to assess the future of climate change in India—unlike global UN studies that offer a broad view of the planet. It is worthy of our close attention as a reminder that our future as a country will be defined not by a virus but the catastrophic reality of climate change.

Tell me about this report

It was prepared by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and is titled ‘Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region’. It is the first-ever report to comprehensively assess the impact of global warming on India, and forecast where we will be at the end of this century. It is far more detailed and useful than similar UN reports that tend to focus on the bigger global picture. 

Ok, how bad is it...

Bad. Let’s start with how ‘warm’ we are. The average surface air temperature in India has already risen by 0.7º C between 1901 and 2018. Our warmest day and coldest night have heated up by about 0.63°C and 0.4°C.  

And our oceans are warmer than the global average. The sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean has risen by one degree Celsius between 1951 and 2015—which is higher than the global average warming of 0.7 degree Celsius for the same period. 

And it’s going to get hotter?

Yes, very hot. These numbers are genuinely scary. 

First we need to know this: In 2018, a comprehensive report released by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that if global temperatures warm by more than 1.5º C—and hit 2º C—the consequences will be catastrophic. 

The forecast for India: If we do absolutely nothing to curb carbon emissions, our average temperature will increase by 2.7º C in the next 50 years—and hit 4.4º C by the end of this century! With moderate curbs on emissions, the temperature will still rise by an average of 2º C by 2069—and hit 2.4º C by 2099. So unless there are dramatic interventions, we will blow past that 2º C threshold faster than the rest of the world. 

Point to note: The warmest day and coldest night by 2100 will be 4.7°C and 5.5°C warmer, respectively.

I don’t really want to know, but tell me more…

You’ve heard most of this before, but here’s the unsurprising list of consequences:

• Rainfall will be densely concentrated in shorter periods of time—with longer and longer dry spells. So we will suffer both intense droughts and floods.
• The Hindukush Himalayas will be warmer by 2.6-4.6°C. Mountain glaciers will melt causing, at first, devastating flooding. But our rivers will eventually dry up—which will wreak havoc on agriculture and our food security.
• Sea levels will rise by 20-30 cm by 2100—compared to the average global rise of 18 cm. Great parts of our coastal cities will be either under water or subject to chronic flooding.

But this list doesn’t capture how these trends interact with each other. 

One: As the study’s lead author points out, a number of these extreme weather events will likely happen at the same time:

“The chances of these extremes overlapping are large, multiplying the threat. We call them compound events. For example, an intense cyclone may be accompanied by heavy rains, storm surges as in the case of the recent cyclones. Or droughts may happen along with heatwaves.”

Two: Our response to rising temperatures may also exacerbate their effects. Hotter weather will heighten demand for cooling technology—which rely on electricity that accounts for a significant chunk of greenhouse emissions. But more importantly, power plants need water, as the report notes:

“In addition, thermal power plants require substantial amounts of water for cooling to generate electricity. Power plants sited inland draw freshwater largely from dam reservoirs, rivers and canals. A rise in water withdrawal by power plants would directly compete with water withdrawal for agriculture and domestic consumption, particularly in water-stressed areas.” 

The bottomline: India is going to be uninhabitable and soon. Will the economic meltdown triggered by the pandemic accelerate the process? Or does it offer an opportunity to craft a very different kind of recovery? How can this report help craft those policies? We answer these questions in part two of this explainer next week.

Reading List

• Indian Express lists the report’s key findings. The Wire offers better analysis. 
• Two good reads from Mongabay on its policy implications: one on the need for better disaster planning and the other on green cover. 
• National Geographic explains a 2019 report warning of melting Himalayan glaciers.
• Vox lays out the key takeaways from the 2018 UN report.
• Best use of your time: This New York Times infographic that shows how just a half-degree of warming can have a staggering effect on our lives.