A new tipping point for Gaza

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

A new tipping point for Gaza

The ceasefire in Gaza is in jeopardy, less than a month since it came into effect:

On Monday, Hamas suspended the release of Israeli hostages “until further notice”—blaming Israel for repeatedly violating the terms of the ceasefire. This Al Jazeera graphic shows they may have a point.
The Donald responded with a deadline of Saturday noon and a grave threat: “if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock—I think it’s an appropriate time—I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out.” He also went on to say that Palestinians have no right to return to Gaza.
Emboldened by Trump’s remarks, Israel has echoed the same threat—promising a return to war if the deadline was not met.
Even Houthis in Yemen have jumped in the fray, threatening to attack Israel if the war resumes.

Reminder: We are in the first stage of the peace plan. Hostilities have been paused—and a hostages-for-Palestinian prisoners swap is underway. And the two sides are negotiating what happens in stage two and three—all of which is supposed to end in an independent Palestine state (of whatever kind).

The Trump ‘plan’: Trump has been making a series of incendiary comments on Gaza since his return to the White House. The most outlandish: he wants to ethnically cleanse Gaza by forcibly relocating 1.8 million people—in order to redevelop it into a “Riviera” of the Middle East. None of this helps the ceasefire talks underway between Israel and Hamas—and many say that is not an accident.

The looming deadline: introduces a potential turning point—rather a U-turn back into war—and Tel Aviv once again pounding the crap out of Gaza. This time with Trump cheering from the White House. But the Damoclean sword hangs not just over Gaza—but also its Arab neighbours—and US allies—Egypt and Jordan.

The impossible choice: The Jordanian King is in the US—the first Arab leader to visit the White House after his inauguration. Trump greeted him with a rude surprise: “With Jordan’s King Abdullah II next to him Tuesday in the Oval Office, Trump again vowed to “take” Gaza, prompting Abdullah to shift uncomfortably in his chair.”

Trump basically wants the Arabs to take in those 1.8 million Gazans. And he has threatened to withhold $1.5 billion in US aid to Jordan—if it doesn’t play along. Though he at least backed down on that threat yesterday.

But, but, but: It is impossible for the King or any other Arab leader to give Trump what he wants:

[M]ore than half of King Abdullah’s approximately 12 million subjects are of Palestinian descent, and Middle East experts say that the survival of his family’s rule depends on his digging in against Mr. Trump’s plan. “King Abdullah cannot go along with it,” said [Middle East expert] Paul Salem… “He cannot survive the idea that he’s colluding on the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians.. It’s existential for him and his government.”

What’s next: The King told reporters that Arab governments have their own plan for postwar Gaza—to be unveiled later this month: “I have to look into the best interests of my country. Let’s wait until the Egyptians.” Egypt is scheduled to host an emergency Arab summit in Cairo on February 27 to discuss “new and dangerous developments for the Palestinian cause.

Point to note: While Jordan and Egypt do not have oil wealth, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others could easily step in if the US cut aid. Also: Washington gets vital military bases in the Middle East in exchange for that largesse. Threats are easier made than delivered.

The bigger picture: It won’t be easy for Bibi to simply turn his back on the remaining 73 hostages—again!—and return to war. The domestic pressure to get it done ASAP is far too high–especially given the half-starved condition of recently released hostages. Hamas may be back in place—but they are more unpopular than ever with their own people. Provoking a new Israeli assault may seal its political demise. A dangerous move since the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is doing its best to curry favour with the West.

Reading list: Al Jazeera offers the best analysis of Hamas’ decision and Israel’s ceasefire violations. The Guardian has the data on popular support for Hamas within Gaza. BBC News and CNN have the reporting on Trump’s threat and the fragility of the ceasefire. Al-Monitor and Reuters break down King Abdullah’s meeting with the Donald.

It’s official: The 1.5°C climate goal is dead

The context: In 2015, during the COP21 in Paris, 195 countries signed the Paris Agreement—committing to limit global warming to 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Last year breached the 1.5°C threshold—and was declared the hottest year on record. Scientists have long been warning us to mend our ways—or risk putting that goal forever out of reach.

What happened now: Two new studies have concluded that this dire threshold has already been breached. One study concludes that “breaching the Paris Agreement threshold is virtually certain.” The other says that 2024 is “likely” the first year of a 20-year period reaching the 1.5°C warming level. In other words, 2024 was not an anomaly—so you better get used to the heat.

Where’s the cool-down? Scientists had hoped that the onset of La Niña this year would bring down temperatures—but that has not happened—as this January proved:

‘[M]any of us expect that 2025 will be cooler than both 2023 and 2024, and is unlikely to be the warmest year in the instrumental record,’ climatologist Zeke Hausfather wrote in a blog post on Monday. Their expectations were not met. Their expectations were not met, he went on to say, describing how last month beat the prior record set in January 2024 “by a sizable margin. January 2025 stands out as anomalous even by the standards of the last two years,’ Hausfather wrote.

Even worse: Some—like reputed climatologist James Hansen—say that the “two degree target is dead.” And a Guardian survey of the world’s top climate scientists found that 77% think we are headed for “at least 2.5°C”. (CNN)

AI-generated layoffs are the new normal

January has been especially brutal for employees—with Kohl’s, CNN, Amazon, Starbucks, British Petroleum and Blackrock announcing big layoffs. But the real bad news is that not all these companies are doing poorly. These cuts are driven by the rise of AI—not a fall in earnings. In fact, 41% of companies expect to downsize in the next five years because of tech.

What’s also unusual: The layoffs come at a time when companies are increasing their spends—not cutting back. Example—Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are set to pour a record $320 billion into AI & data centers in 2025—up from $230 billion last year.

Meta leads the way: The company has started the process of shedding 5% of its workforce—that’s 4,000 employees across the world, including Asia and Europe. Mark Zuckerberg said Meta will “raise the bar” and move fast to cut dead weight as part of this “nonregrettable attrition.” According to a Business Insider exclusive, the Zuck’s reign of terror is already underway:

“Mark is creating fear,” a Meta employee told BI. “He’s creating a culture where you have to be loyal to him or else.” Another employee said that working at Meta right now “feels like living in a George Orwell novel.”

Even colleagues who have performed well “have been disappearing all year, and when you ask about it, you're just told, ‘They're no longer with the company,’” this person said. “Self-censorship is rampant.” At a company supposedly dedicated to connecting people, the human side of our work is disappearing, and everyone is acting more robotic.”

Ahh, the sights and sounds of Trump’s America. Swept off its feet by his tech bro machismo, Wall Street sent him an early V-day present—adding $1 trillion to Meta's market valuation. Business Insider (leaky paywall) has lots more on Meta. We also did a Big Story on whether AI is coming for your job.

what caught our eye

business & tech

Donald Trump has directed the Justice Department to suspend a foreign bribery law used to launch an investigation against the Adani Group. Gautam-bhai khush hua.
Europe is going all in on AI—launching InvestAI, a €200 billion push for AI investment, in a bid to catch up with China and the US.
New York Times has an interesting read on how Christian faith is gaining a following in Silicon Valley—especially with tech moguls like Peter Thiel preaching out loud.
Sam Altman shut down Musk’s $97.4 billion takeover bid for OpenAI, saying, “OpenAI is not for sale.”
80% of people who will file their returns for FY26 will likely pay no tax—in light of the tax rebate expansion under the latest Union Budget.
Physics Wallah is cashing in—raising up to $26 million in a new funding round, pushing its valuation to $3.7 billion, up nearly $1 billion in just six months.
At the Aero India show in Bangalore, Amreeka’s GE Aerospace has signed a five-year contract with IAF for maintenance of Apache helicopter engines.
Chinese EV manufacturer BYD is now offering a free ‘God’s Eye’ drivers’ assistance system in its cars that cost less than $10,000. The move boosted BYD’s shares to a record high.
Instagram is expanding its Teen Accounts features—which protect users under 16—to the Indian market.

sports & entertainment

China’s new box office king? A demonic child. “Ne Zha 2” just smashed records, crossing $1 billion in ticket sales. It is the first not made by a Hollywood studio to cross that mark.
It’s official—Jasprit Bumrah has been ruled out of India’s Champions Trophy squad due to a back injury he suffered during India’s last Test match down under. His replacement: Harshit Rana.
Over at the IPL, Gujarat Titans owners CVC Capital Partners are selling a majority stake in the franchise to Ahmedabad-based Torrent Group.
CNN has a must-read on the star of the Super Bowl, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, and his long journey to the top of American football.
Green Day fans, get hyped for ‘New Years Rev’—a coming-of-age comedy film about three knuckleheads who travel to LA, mistakenly believing that their band is opening for Green Day.

health & environment

Forget psychedelics—the latest bizarre Hollywood fad is to microdose on ozempic! Hollywood Reporter has more.
The Conversation has a cool and nerdy piece analysing the importance of ‘gut motility’—the speed at which food moves through the gut.
Clinical trials show encouraging signs for potassium-enriched salt as a way of cutting the risk of strokes. FYI: new WHO guidelines also recommend moving away from sodium to potassium-infused salt.
Technological advances and changes in infrastructure in most countries won’t be enough to achieve goals in reducing carbon emissions, according to a new study.

as for the rest

Israeli police raid Jerusalem bookshops, arresting Palestinian owners in an effort to silence intellectuals and create a “culture of fear.”
Chinese hacking group dubbed Salt Typhoon compromised at least eight of America’s telecoms networks. They targeted phones of Donald Trump, JD Vance, the Biden administration and the Harris-Walz campaign.
In a case of not-so-good timing, Trump suggests Ukraine “may be Russian some day,” as his VP JD Vance preps to meet Zelenskyy.
In a new move, PM Modi while on his trip in France, invoked Veer Savarkar (father of Hindutva) and praised Marseille’s crucial role in India's freedom struggle.
Uttarakhand has designated one village per district as an ‘Adarsh Sanskrit village’—where special instructors will train the residents to communicate in Sanskrit in their daily lives.
Maharashtra police file a second FIR against podcaster Ranveer Allahbadia and comedian Samay Raina over their controversial ‘India’s Got Latent’ show.
A Japanese finance worker loses sensitive drug-smuggling files after downing nine beers on a night out with colleagues.
BBC has a good read on Uzbekistan's tourism boom clashing with heritage experts, as fears rise the country could become a “Venice in the desert.”
A federal judge has blocked Trump’s plans to slash NIH funding in 22 states, granting a temporary reprieve to biomedical research.
The Guardian has a good read on the mystery behind the famous 1990 Calvine UFO photo—was it a hoax or something out of this world?

Three things to see

One: Charles & Keith looked at New Balance’s ‘snoafer’ and said, “Hold my beer.” Their Frankenshoe—i.e. a mashup of two different styles—marries the sneaker and the ballerina flat—giving us the ‘sneakerina’, of course! The name made us throw up a little—but it is a lot easier on the eye and likely on your feet. Prices start at £75 ($93). Psst, it also comes in black. (The Guardian)

Two: Unfazed by his failed impromptu performance in Bangalore, Ed Sheeran took an impromptu ride on a scooty in Jiaganj, West Bengal—driven by his new bestie Arijit Singh. See the cheesy vid below. Our question: Wtf was he doing there? (The Hindu)

Three: Shelling out $8 million for an ad spot at the Super Bowl: a new teaser for ‘Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning’. This is part two of ‘Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning’—and rumoured to be the last in the franchise. It is slated to release on May 23.

Also unveiled at the Super Bowl: A new trailer for the live-action adaptation of Disney’s ‘Lilo & Stitch’. This one was a lot more creative—cleverly woven into the broadcast. Watch Stitch running amok in the field below. The movie is also set to release on May 23. The Guardian has other Super Bowl trailers.