Killings in Kashmir: Badla for Baisaran?

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

Killings in Kashmir: Badla for Baisaran?

We now have far more reporting and analysis on the killing of 26 tourists in Pahalgam on Tuesday.

What happened in the meadows: According to the latest accounts, the terrorists entered the meadow from different directions—and kept shooting for 25-30 minutes. They were clearly targeting Hindus—asking male tourists to state their religion. The Baisaran meadow was located at the top of a hill—accessible only by foot or ponies.

About those killers: Officials have released these sketches of three of the Pakistanis:

Point to note: The army camp is downhill from the meadow—located in the heavily guarded Pahalgam—which is raising questions among survivors:

How could they carry guns to this place without being checked? I am not questioning the capability of the Army but one camp should have been here; the Army knows better though. They came after the damage was done.

Also this:

I feel frustrated and angry. The government says that this place is secure, but there was no security for miles around. My mother said that the terrorists came at leisure — strolling around and asking people their names.

Point to note: Pahalgam—home to the Amarnath shrine—is “a high-security town” guarded by the Army, the Central Reserve Police Force, and the J&K police. The question is why none of them were present in a location that hosts hundreds of tourists a day.

New Delhi’s response: Of course, everyone is demanding badla—on television, X and newspaper columns. It is a political debacle for the government. For one, it damages the raison d’etre for the change in Kashmir’s status:

[T]he government justified its heavy-handed approach with one consistent message: The deadly militancy that had rocked the Himalayan territory for decades was finally in check… “The whole idea, I think, behind this attack was to sort of puncture that narrative that, you know, everything is fine,” said D.S. Hooda, a retired Indian army general who led India’s northern command based in Kashmir. “The government will be under tremendous pressure to react.”

There is already talk of a Balakot-style military strike on Pakistan. For now, this is what the government has announced:

It has kicked out nearly half the Pakistani diplomats—including "the defence, military, naval and air advisors.” It is withdrawing their Indian counterparts from Islamabad.
The only operational border crossing at Attari has been shut down.
The biggest move: The 1960 Indus Water Treaty has been suspended. More on that below.

About that water treaty: The 1960 agreement governs how the two nations share the waters of six rivers—Sutlej, Beas and Ravi are eastern; Jhelum, Chenab and Indus are the western ones. It has been used by the government to pressure Pakistan in 2016 and 2019, as well. The reason: “About 90% of Pakistan’s food production is dependent on water flowing through India from the Indus river system.”

But, but, but: You cannot just turn off entire river systems—as you would a tap. We will need to construct huge storage tanks and diversion tunnels—which will take years.

As for collateral damage: Fawad Khan will once again pay for Islamabad’s sins. The Pakistani actor is set to make a Bollywood comeback after nine years—in the romantic drama ‘Abir Gulaal’. There are calls to block the movie’s release in India. Reminder: Indian film associations had banned Pakistani artists from working in Bollywood following the 2016 Uri terror attack. Khan’s return would have marked its end.

The immediate fallout: The attack has demolished one of the government’s key indicators of ‘normalcy’—tourists. They are fleeing in numbers:

As security forces scramble for a response, the attack has led to an exodus of tourists from not only Pahalgam but also the Valley in general: hotels that were booked to capacity for the weekend are now empty, advance bookings have been cancelled and restaurants that were, until Tuesday, filled with chattering voices now stand strangely bereft.

They will remain ‘bereft’ in the months to come. Up to 90% of travel bookings for the summer have been cancelled. Data point to note: The number of visitors to the valley had jumped from 831,000 in 2018 to 3 million in 2023. This is a disaster not just for the government—but also for the Kashmiris who had finally managed to restore their livelihoods (whatever their political views).

What’s next: The government has not officially named the culprit—but everyone is bracing for an escalation—including the Pakistanis:

After the Indian announcement, Pakistan said it was scheduling a meeting of the National Security Committee, the country’s highest decision-making forum on security and foreign policy, for Thursday to formulate a response…

Some Pakistani analysts warn that the current confrontation could intensify beyond the 2019 standoff. “Indian escalation already began last night, and it will be at a bigger scale than February 2019,” Syed Muhammad Ali, a security analyst in Islamabad, said on Wednesday.

Reading list: The Hindu has the latest on the security lapses. The Telegraph and Indian Express have more on the blow to tourism. New York Times has the political fallout. The Telegraph reports on the government’s response. This X thread offers the best analysis on the water treaty. Stimson Center has a good discussion on the lessons of the 2019 Balakot strikes on Pakistan—and why air strikes are now the preferred method of retaliation.

India-US trade deal: Mukesh-bhai’s worst nightmare?

The context: Veep JD Vance ended his four-day visit to India on an upbeat note—welcoming “significant progress” in talks for a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). The government has repeatedly claimed that the agreement would end India’s tariff woes. Yesterday, officials boasted that we are the “first” to seal its “terms of reference.” Left unsaid: What sacrifices these terms may require—especially of Mukesh-bhai.

What Trump wants: A Financial Times exclusive reports that Washington is pressing New Delhi to grant US giants Amazon and Walmart (which owns Flipkart) “full access” to its $125 billion e-commerce market. Currently, foreign investment restrictions prevent them from selling their own products to customers—i.e. they can only function as a platform for sellers. And they are not allowed to set up off-line retail.

Washington wants to get rid of the first restriction—pushing for an “inventory model”:

In [the inventory model], the e-commerce entity owns and stores inventory of sellers in a warehouse, and sells products directly to consumers. It allows the platform to be in control of the branding and quality of the products.

In other words, Amazon and Walmart could then sell their ‘private label’ products—which are staggeringly profitable in the US.

The bad news for Mukesh-bhai: On paper, these foreign investment restrictions are in place to protect the bechara kirana shop—who are instead being slaughtered by Indian e-commerce companies. The true winners are Indian big boys Mukesh bhai—who can sell his goods both online and in almost 20,000 offline shops. As Andy Mukherjee observes, desi ‘protectionism’ is highly selective:

In the past 10 years, Modi’s economic strategy has relied heavily on a small team of national champions. To protect them from foreign competition, tariffs that in 2011 had almost fallen to China’s 7% levels were raised to 12% by 2022, among the highest in the world.

This strategy has been vastly lucrative for these “national champions”—Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani, Tata Group, Birlas and Sunil Mittal:

The expansion picked up steam after Modi first became prime minister in 2014. That’s when the conglomerates “started acquiring larger and larger shares within the sectors where they were present,” according to Viral Acharya... “Given the high tariffs, Big-Five groups do not have to compete with international peers” in many industries, Acharya noted in his 2023 study. Nor do they have to test their muscles overseas. They garner most of their revenues at home, in areas ranging from telecoms, media and retail, to ports, airports, building materials and autos.”

The bad news for billionaires: Yes, the A&A cabal is greatly beloved to the BJP. But Trump’s other demand is far more ‘expensive’—to drop all barriers to US agricultural products. That would be political suicide:

In a country where nearly half of the workforce is still in farming, any trade concessions on agriculture may be politically expensive. It may be safer to push the burden of Trump’s tantrums to local billionaires.

Hence, a Reuters’ report that New Delhi has “set clear red lines for the negotiations. Tariffs on meat, maize, wheat and dairy products that now range from 30% to 60%, are off the table.” What the government is willing to sacrifice—apple, walnut, almond and cranberry farmers in Kashmir.

A Mukesh-bhai nightmare: Trump 2.0 poses three huge risks to the Ambani hegemony. The first is to its retail empire—see Walmart, Amazon etc. Next: digital services—which will be under threat from Starlink:

Ambani’s Jio Platforms Ltd., which has nearly 500 million subscribers, has joined India’s other major terrestrial wireless carriers in opposing Starlink. Musk’s satellite broadband service will probably get an entry pass without having to bid for telecom spectrum in government auctions. Losing high-paying customers to a new player with lower regulatory costs could put a lid on pricing.

Last but not least: The very heart of the Reliance empire is its oil refining business. The great profits from this dhanda have funded the $50 billion investment in expanding its digital and retail footprint—often at a loss. The Trump White House will likely clamp down on its ability to process Venezuelan and Russian crude. Worse, it may insist he buy American oil—which is way more expensive and way less profitable.

The big picture: Mukesh-bhai ke bure din may be around the corner—unless Modi-ji crafts a genius plan to save both their fortunes. Economic Times lays out the triple threat to Mukesh Ambani. Bloomberg News via Economic Times has the big picture on the fate of India’s coddled billionaires. Financial Times (splainer gift link) has the exclusive on Trump’s renewed pressure on India to open up its e-commerce market. Reuters reports on the potential India-US compromise on agricultural exports and almonds.

Indian camels may soon be a distant memory

India’s camel population is in sharp decline—and is on the brink of vanishing from its bastion in Rajasthan.

The dismal numbers: There has been a staggering drop in numbers in recent decades:

Between 2012 and 2019, their numbers fell from 400,000 to 250,000—a sharp 37% drop in just seven years. The decline is sharper when compared to the 2007 census which counted 520,000 camels (a 52% decline by 2019). Compared to the early 90s, the camel population in India has dropped by a staggering 76%.

But, but, but: During this same period, the global camel population has nearly doubled to 39 million. In fact, countries in East Africa have turned to camels as a climate-resilient alternative to cattle—while Arab nations invest in camel conservation.

So wtf is wrong in India? This is a classic case of good intentions producing bad results. The 2015 Rajasthan Camel Act banned the transport, illegal possession and slaughtering of camels. It is sweeping, vaguely worded—and “the burden to prove innocence rests with the person prosecuted under this act.” The aim was noble:

The act was crafted on the assumption that the slaughter of camels was behind the decline in their population in Rajasthan. It banned camel transport to other states… thinking it would serve three purposes: the camel population would increase, the livelihood of the breeders would increase and the camel slaughter would stop.

But, but, but: In practice, the law greatly disincentivised camel breeding. Lucrative out-of-state fairs—where male camels were sold—became illegal. Also a problem: This BJP-era law targeted camel meat-eaters—who are mostly Muslims. As one of the bureaucrats explains: “We were told to formulate a law for camels similar to what existed for cows and other cattle. But a law that aimed to protect camels ended up doing the opposite.”

Irony alert: While the law claims to protect camels, development projects have destroyed what they need most: pastures and forests to graze. Mint has the best overview on the camel conundrum, but it’s paywalled. For a free deep-dive into the 2015 Rajasthan Camel Act, check out Al Jazeera.

Extreme weather swings ahead: From sweating to shivering

A new study has found that rapid shifts in temperature from hot to freezing are happening faster and more often in recent years. Researchers looked at global temperatures between 1961 and 2023 to identify sharp shifts from hot to cold or vice-versa within five days:

They found that instances of these flips increased in more than 60% of regions they surveyed. The largest increases in frequency were observed in South America, West Europe, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Some areas, including the polar regions, showed different behavior and experienced fewer events.

Why this matters: These sudden swings in temperature have a range of implications:

The researchers warned these temperature flips could have damaging effects on people and natural environments, including destruction of crops, harm to ecosystems and strains on power infrastructure. And low-income countries, where there is less access to weather forecasting and infrastructure is less resilient, are more vulnerable.

Yes, that would include India. New York Times (login required) has more. You can check out the study on Nature.

what caught our eye

business & tech

Global markets are rallying after Trump said he’s not firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—investors exhaled, stocks jumped.
No more watercooler gossip—Microsoft says your next coworker is all AI, all business, and arriving fast.
ChatGPT will now serve up Washington Post stories—with summaries and links—as part of OpenAI’s latest media tie-up, joining a roster that already includes The Guardian and Axios.
Apple’s been slapped with a €500 million fine, Meta with €200 million—as the EU dishes out its first Big Tech penalties under the new Digital Markets Act. For more background into the case, you can read our curation here.
Meta’s Oversight Board slammed the company for dialing down fact-checking and loosening rules on hot-button topics like immigration and gender.
OpenAI’s got its eye on Chrome—telling a US court it’d buy the browser if Google’s forced to sell in the antitrust crackdown.
The global aviation industry is in for a bumpy ride as US tariffs and potential retaliations raise aircraft manufacturing costs—leading to pricier planes, higher airline expenses, and eventually, more expensive tickets for passengers.
Meta has launched its new video-creation app, Edits. Available on iOS and Android, the app offers tools for tracking video ideas, and creating content with AI effects.

sports & entertainment

India wrapped up the International Shooting Sport Federation World Cup in Peru with a solid third-place finish—2 golds, 4 silvers, and a lone bronze.
Pope Francis’ passing sent viewership of ‘Conclave’ soaring—streaming numbers jumped 283%, with nearly 7 million minutes watched as audiences tuned in for a fictional take on the papal succession.
Andy Serkis is bringing the Orwellian classic ‘Animal Farm’ to life in an animated film—with a star-studded voice cast including Seth Rogen, Glenn Close, and Woody Harrelson.
Netflix is wrapping up ‘Heartstopper’ with a feature film finale—drawing from Alice Oseman’s upcoming sixth volume to close out the beloved queer coming-of-age saga.
'Enola Holmes 3' is officially rolling cameras in the UK—with Millie Bobby Brown and crew back on the case, and 'Adolescence' director Philip Barantini taking the reins for this round of Victorian sleuthing.
Rohit Sharma’s 70 off 46 powered Mumbai Indians to their fourth straight win—crushing Sunrisers Hyderabad by 7 wickets and jumping from sixth to third on the table.

meanwhile, in the world

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 40 in Gaza on Wednesday, including several sheltering in a school and eight from a single family home in Shujayea, as the bombardment of the besieged enclave continues unabated.
In a rare softening, the Donald says sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods will “come down substantially”—a notable climbdown after weeks of chest-thumping in the US-China trade war.
The US offered Zelenskyy a peace deal that gives Russia everything it wants. Trump is shocked and outraged that he didn’t take it.
Pope Francis’ body has been moved to St Peter’s Basilica for three days of public viewing—giving everyday Catholics a chance to say goodbye ahead of the April 26 funeral.

meanwhile, in India

A 20-year-old Indian man has been charged with molesting a flight attendant on a Singapore Airlines flight—marking the second such incident this month.
By 2040, India will be a space powerhouse with its very own space station, says ISRO Chairman V Narayanan.
Big upgrade for India’s top film schools—FTII Pune and SRFTI Kolkata just bagged deemed university status, unlocking the power to hand out degrees and launch PhD programs.
No bail for Mehul Choksi—a Belgian court has shut down the fugitive jeweller’s plea as India pushes for his extradition in the Rs 13,000 crore PNB scam.

Four things to see

One: Pedro Pascal rocked a “PROTECT THE DOLLS” tee at the UK premiere of Marvel's 'Thunderbolts'. It’s a nod to trans rights and a show of love for his sister, actress Lux Pascal. The shirt is part of a campaign supporting trans women amid rising global backlash. (People)

Two: Tesla cars are not doing well—neither is the company stock. Let’s hope this 1950s-themed diner has better luck. Located in Los Angeles, it has a drive-in movie theatre and supercharger hub—and is close to completion. Musk calls it a “Grease meets Jetsons with Supercharging.” Check out what the experience will be like below. (The Verge)

Three: Check out the trailer for ‘Mountainhead’ starring Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman, Cory Michael Smith, and Ramy Youssef. The movie marks the directorial debut of Jesse Armstrong—the creator of ‘Succession’. The plot: it’s about billionaires. Enuf said. It drops on May 31 on JioCinema. (The Guardian)

Four: If you’re wondering what KJo’s Dharma Productions is planning next—wonder no more, maybe weep instead. Behold the teaser for ‘Naagzilla’—starring Kartik Aaryan. It is being billed as a “horror-comedy”—we’re confident it will indeed be horrific. The movie is set to release on August 14, next year. (Indian Express)