The former Soviet republic is in uproar after a rigged national election—and the government’s decision to turn its back on the EU. We explain why Georgia could be the first domino in Vladimir Putin’s plan for ‘Greater Russia’.
First, remind me about Georgia…
The backstory: Georgia—or Sakartvelo as natives call it—is a former Soviet Republic. First a part of the Ottoman empire, it slipped fully into Russian control in the early nineteenth century. Georgia enjoyed a brief moment of sovereignty between 1918 and 1921—under the protection of Germany. But it was soon reclaimed by the newly minted Communist regime—and endured decades of repression until the collapse of the Soviet Union. It gained independence in 1991. If you want to spot it on a map:
The Russo-Georgian war: Setting aside Georgia’s domestic politics, the most important event in its recent history is the Russian invasion of 2008. The US and NATO stood by while the Kremlin seized control of two “breakaway” provinces. When the dust settled, Russia controlled about 20% of Georgia—as part of a peace deal brokered by France. And US President Barack Obama announced a ‘Russia reset’ policy—to make nice with Moscow.
Why this matters: Many experts argue that the brief war sowed the seeds for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—and the second Cold War:
Understandably, many in Moscow interpreted this accommodating approach as an informal invitation for further acts of aggression in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. Six years after the Russo-Georgian War, Russia embarked on a far more comprehensive military campaign against Ukraine, where Moscow continues to occupy Crimea and large swathes of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. The 2008 Russo-Georgian War is now widely recognized as a landmark event in the transition from the era of post-Soviet cooperation between Russia and the West towards today’s Cold War climate.
The West-ward swing: Worried about another Russian invasion, Georgia continued to move toward the West. Tbilisi has always wanted greater integration with Europe since independence. In 2017, this aim was enshrined in the revised Constitution, no less. It said “the constitutional bodies shall take all available measures within their competence to ensure Georgia’s full integration into the European Union and the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization.”
Back to Moscow, again: In recent years, the political establishment has been swinging back toward Russia—even though 80% of Georgians favour EU membership. The backslide began in 2012 with the victory of the Georgian Dream—led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. Things came to a head earlier this year when an increasingly dictatorial government introduced a Putin-style law to stifle dissent:
[T]he attempt to reintroduce the foreign agents law.. combined with growing anti-Western vitriol from Ivanishvili and other officials, demonstrates that Georgian Dream is no longer interested in pretending to seek EU integration… Protesters on the street "fully understand that after this (law), there is no future for Georgia, because a future with Russia, for us, is no future," said [analyst] Katie Shoshiashvili.
Point to note: Tbilisi does not support the West’s sanctions against Moscow—and Ivanishvili has failed to publicly condemn the invasion of Ukraine. The EU finally suspended Georgia’s membership application process indefinitely in June—after its parliament passed the ‘foreign agent’ law.
So what’s happening now?
The national election in October turned into a final reckoning between the two sides—“a pivotal moment that will determine whether the country becomes a sovereign democracy integrated with the west, or falls back into autocracy and Russia’s orbit.” The result seemed to confirm the worst fears.
A rigged result? When the votes were counted, the Georgian Dream seemed to have won 54.8%. But the Opposition and Georgia’s own President Salome Zourabichvili cried foul:
Zourabichvili suggested “Russian elections” were held in the country, and said “technology was used to whitewash counterfeiting. Such a thing has never happened before.” European electoral observers said the election took place in a “divisive” environment marked by intimidation and instances of vote buying, double voting and physical violence.
She has called the government illegitimate and refused to leave office when her term ends next month. Meanwhile, GD’s incumbent PM Irakli Kobakhidze accused pro-EU forces of plotting a coup.
A new bombshell: The EU voted to condemn the elections as an example of “continued democratic backsliding ‘for which the ruling Georgian Dream party is fully responsible.’” In response, the Georgian government suspended all negotiations to join the EU:
The Georgian prime minister fired back, denouncing what he described as a “cascade of insults” from the EU politicians and declaring that “the ill-wishers of our country have turned the European Parliament into a blunt weapon of blackmail against Georgia, which is a great disgrace for the European Union.” Kobakhidze also said Georgia would reject any budgetary grants from the EU until the end of 2028.
The LGBTQ angle: Kobakhidze has also tried to divert the debate to homosexuality:
He specifically mentioned calls by the European Union to repeal a recently passed package of laws that ban what is described as LGBTQ propaganda and a law that attempts to curb the influence of nongovernmental organizations funded by the West as “actions that amount to renouncing” Georgia’s dignity.
Cue the protests: Thousands of citizens took to the streets soon after the announcement—with the open support of President Zurabishvili, who is calling it “the resistance movement.” The scenes over the weekend were remarkable:
This gives you some sense of the scale:
There were scolding grandmas:
And sleepy good boys:
Ok, but why is this a big deal?
This is all about Cold War 2.0—which has been in the making ever since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. This also means the return to a very retro theory of global politics: The domino theory—the guiding principle of US foreign policy in the post-World War years. The theory is straight-forward: Once a single state falls to communism, its neighbours will follow. In 2024, we have a rebooted version of the same cause-effect hypothesis.
The new dominos: are Georgia and Moldova. Both are candidates for EU membership—and both had elections this year. Losing either to the Russian sphere of influence will be significant:
If either Georgia or Moldova slipped into Russia’s orbit after these elections, it would be a setback for EU and wider Western interests in the Black Sea region. A Moscow-aligned Moldova would potentially offer Russia a base from which to attack south-western Ukraine’s grain exporting ports. The pipeline through which Azerbaijan exports gas to Turkey and beyond – an increasingly important alternative source of supply for some parts of Europe that used to rely on Russian gas – runs through Georgia.
Happily for the West, pro-EU President Maia Sandu has secured a second term—unlike Georgia. But, but, but: The margin for the referendum to join the EU was “razor-thin.” There were accusations of "unprecedented" Russian interference in both elections.
Location, location, location: Moldova shares its largest land border with Ukraine—and Georgia is just across the Black Sea from the Ukrainian port city Odessa.
Then there is Belarus: which has long been a staunch supporter of the Kremlin—and not exactly a geopolitical threat. But a recently leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office laid out a detailed plan to take full control over the country over the next decade:
“Russia’s goals with regards to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine,” [senior US diplomat] Michael Carpenter told Yahoo News. “Only in Belarus, it relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation.” According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030.
So Putin wants to revive the Soviet Union?
We wish! It is true that Putin is obsessed with avenging the humiliation of the Soviet Union’s collapse—made painfully visible by this Reuters collage—which shows you how much territory Russia has lost over the past century:
The language of empire: But Putin isn’t interested in simply restoring USSR borders. He is instead obsessed with the tsarist dream of Russia—or rather Russkiy Mir:
After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, politicians and thinkers in Russia started theorizing the Russkiy Mir as a conceptual replacement for their lost empire. The political scientist Peter Shchedrovitsky.. suggested.. that a “Greater Russia” should not be ethnocentric but linguistic in identity. He stated that “the Russian state has limits, but the Russian world does not. And therefore the concern and interests of the Russians authorities cannot be limited.”
In an extended 2021 op-ed, Putin again relied on language—to stake his claim to Ukraine:
The name ”Ukraine“ was used more often in the meaning of the Old Russian word ”okraina“ (periphery), which is found in written sources from the 12th century, referring to various border territories. And the word ”Ukrainian“, judging by archival documents, originally referred to frontier guards who protected the external borders.
Putin’s grand plan is to return to Russia circa 1914—in some form or the other–which looks like this:
The truly greater Russia: Playfully or not, Putin also extends his long reach to other nations like Kazakhstan—using the same linguistic ploy. Here he is scaring the President Kassym-Jomart Tokaev into speaking Kazakh at a summit in November 2023:
As Peter Dickinson writes for the Atlantic Council:
In theory, at least, the same bogus historical arguments.. would create an array of possible targets for Russian aggression including Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Alaska, and the whole of Central Asia. A maximalist interpretation could even see all of Central Europe’s former Soviet satellite states besides Poland added to the list… it is all-too-easy to imagine waking up to social media posts labeling Kazakhstan an “artificial country” or proclaiming Estonia “historically Russian” as Putin’s tanks roll across the border.
A funnier map to see: The Economist created this tongue-in-cheek map to show what the world would look like if we all subscribed to Putin’s version of linguistic imperialism:
The bottomline: The uprising in Georgia reflects a world in the midst of a seismic realignment—with powerful and power-hungry leaders in the driver’s seat. Trump + Putin = all bets are off.
Reading List
War On The Rocks and Washington Post (splainer gift link) have must-reads on how Russian imperial and military history shape Putin’s worldview, while Atlantic Council has more on the deep repercussions of the 2008 Russo-Georgian war. The Guardian traces the unravelling of Georgia’s dreams of freedom, while CNN and Kyiv Independent have good explainers on the ‘foreign agents’ bill and the protests. For more on the protests and clashes, Associated Press has the best coverage.
