In recent decades, the world has witnessed a dramatic and unprecedented change: women are having far fewer children than ever before. This shift—often described as a "baby bust," is reshaping societies, economies, and the future of our planet. We dive into this complex phenomenon and explore its causes and consequences.
Written by: Samarth Bansal
What exactly has changed?
In the 1960s, the average woman worldwide had about five children. Fast forward to 2021, and that number has plummeted to just 2.4. The latest estimates suggest it's now even lower, around 2.2 children per woman. This isn't just a small change—it's a halving of the global fertility rate in just 60 years.
What we're seeing is part of a broader "demographic transition"—a shift from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as societies develop. This transition has happened at different times and speeds across the world, but the trend is clear and global.
Tell me about fertility rates
When we talk about fertility rates, we're essentially asking: how many children does the average woman have in her lifetime?
Demographers use a measure called the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to answer this question. Think of TFR as a snapshot of current birth patterns. It's like saying, "If today's birth trends continued, how many children would the average woman have over her lifetime?" This measure helps us compare birth rates across different times and places.
A key number to remember is 2.1—this is the "replacement level" fertility rate in developed countries. Here's why it matters:
1) Two children replace their two parents.
2) The extra 0.1 accounts for children who might not survive to adulthood or choose not to have children themselves.
When a country's fertility rate falls below 2.1, its population will eventually start to shrink (assuming no immigration). This can lead to significant social and economic changes, which is why demographers and policymakers pay close attention to this number.
By 2050, Lancet projects that 155 out of 204 countries and territories (76.0%) will have fertility rates below replacement level. By 2100, this number is expected to increase to 198 countries and territories (97.1%).
But why is this happening?
The reasons behind this global baby bust are complex and interconnected. ‘Our World in Data’ has an excellent data and research review that provides compelling evidence for several key factors:
Women's empowerment: As women gain more education and career opportunities, they tend to have fewer children.
In countries where women have more than eight years of education on average, fertility rates typically fall below four children per woman, often below two. A 2013 study found a direct link between higher education levels in women and lower fertility rates, even as far back as 19th century Prussia.
Child survival and well-being: When more children survive to adulthood, parents choose to have fewer kids.
A 2010 study in the Journal of Population Economics found that declining child mortality led to lower fertility rates, with about a 10-year delay. This supports the "child hoarding" theory—as child survival improves, parents feel less need to have many children.
Economic changes: As economies modernise—from agricultural to industrial—children shift from being economic ‘assets’ to economic ‘investments’.
In a 2002 study, Moshe Hazan and Binyamin Berdugo documented how technological progress reduced the economic value of child labour, leading to decreased fertility. Döpke (2004) found that child labour restrictions significantly increased the cost of having children, further driving down fertility rates.
Access to family planning: Access to modern contraception gives people more control over family size.
Martha Bailey in 2010 found that legal access to birth control in the US accounted for about 40% of the decline in marital fertility between 1955-1965.
Changing cultural norms: As society's ideas about family size change, people adjust their choices.
A study from 2012 found that exposure to soap operas featuring smaller families in Brazil correlated with reduced fertility. In India, access to cable TV led to a 3.7 percentage point decrease in pregnancy likelihood.
These factors work together, reinforcing each other to drive the global trend towards smaller families. The research shows that this isn't just about personal choice—it's a complex interplay of social, economic, and cultural changes happening worldwide.
Why this matters
Ageing populations: As fewer babies are born, the proportion of older people in society grows. This shift has far-reaching consequences. For example, by 2036, South Korea is expected to have two elderly people (over 65) for every person under 18. Imagine a society where grandparents outnumber grandchildren two to one!
This imbalance puts immense pressure on healthcare and pension systems. Fewer working-age people have to support more retirees, potentially leading to higher taxes or reduced benefits.
A shrinking workforce: Fewer births today means fewer workers tomorrow. This can slow economic growth and innovation. Rich countries may need to spend 21% of their entire economic output (GDP) on care for the elderly by 2050, up from 16% in 2015. That's a massive shift in where a nation's money goes.
Think about it: With fewer workers, who will pay for pensions? Who will staff hospitals and care homes? These are critical questions countries must address.
Shifting global birth rates: While some regions see birth rates plummet, others remain high, reshaping the world's demographic landscape. Lancet projects that by 2100, over half (54%) of all babies born worldwide will be in sub-Saharan Africa, up from 29% in 2021. Meanwhile, South Asia's share will shrink from about 25% to just 7%.
This shift could lead to major changes in global migration patterns, economic power, and even geopolitical influence.
Environmental implications: Lower fertility rates could alleviate strain on global food systems and reduce carbon emissions. A 2012 study cited in the Lancet report suggests that following a low-growth population path could lower worldwide carbon emissions by 15% by 2050 and 40% by 2100. However, it also cautions that increasing consumption per capita due to economic development could offset these environmental benefits.
How are governments responding
As fertility rates plummet worldwide, governments are scrambling to address the looming demographic crisis. Here are a few examples to give you a flavour of different approaches:
Japan: Facing rapid population ageing, Japan has launched a comprehensive family-friendly package. Think expanded parental leave, subsidised childcare, and even free college education. They're pulling out all stops to make raising children more attractive.
Hungary: Taking a more aggressive stance, Hungary has implemented what some call "generous" and others "radical" pronatalist policies. Tax breaks for moms over 30 and extensive maternity leave are cornerstones of their strategy.
Singapore: One of the fastest-ageing countries globally, Singapore is focusing on keeping its population healthy and working longer. They're raising the retirement age to 65 by 2030 and investing heavily in healthcare to keep older workers productive.
United States: In the US, the fertility debate often plays out in politics. Some right-wing politicians propose "baby bonuses" to encourage childbearing. Meanwhile, many older Americans are working longer to cover living expenses.
It's crucial to note that there's no one-size-fits-all solution. What works in one country may not be suitable or effective in another due to cultural, economic, and social differences.
Moreover, there's growing concern that some countries might resort to measures that limit reproductive rights. Experts stress that promoting and protecting women's rights is crucial for ensuring better health outcomes and economic growth, regardless of fertility goals.
The bottomline: The global fertility decline represents a profound inflection point in human history. For millennia, high birth rates were the norm, shaping societies, economies, and cultures. Now, we're entering uncharted territory, where most of the world faces the prospect of shrinking, ageing populations.
The real test lies in how we respond. Will we adapt our economic models to thrive with smaller workforces? Can we reimagine social contracts to support ageing populations without overburdening the young? And critically, how do we balance the needs of regions still experiencing high fertility with those facing rapid population decline?
Reading list
The Lancet provides the most comprehensive breakdown and projections of global fertility rates. Our World in Data offers the best visual representation of the issue. Wall Street Journal (splainer gift link) and the BBC News look at how individual countries are addressing declining birth rates. The Economist (login required) predicts the potential impact of a shrinking workforce on major economic systems.
