This is more a staggering defeat for the Conservatives—than a mandate for Labour. It marks a new era for British politics—ending 14 years of Tory rule and the rise of third parties, both on the left and right. But hey, the desis are here to stay—other than Sunak, of course.
First, some background
The very basic deets: The UK parliament has 650 seats—spread across England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland—with an electorate of 49 million registered voters (In comparison, we only have 543). It’s a multiparty system, but the government is typically formed by Labour or the Conservatives. The head of either party becomes prime minister.
How we got here: Tories have been in power since 2010—when David Cameron was elected. The last five years have been chaotic, farcical—with twists and turns that would put even the Trump melodrama to shame. Here’s a quick refresher:
- David Cameron grandly held the Brexit referendum in 2016—and fled into retirement when he didn’t like the result.
- He left Theresa May to deal with the mess—which she didn’t. Three years later—unable to seal the Brexit deal—she quit leaving Boris Johnson in charge.
- Johnson led the party to a landslide victory in 2019—and got the Brexit job done.
- But Boris was brought down in 2022 because of—well—egregious lying, partying like Marie Antoinette during the pandemic and other assorted sins.
- Then we got Liz Truss—who lasted a record-breaking 50 days in office. She was summarily kicked out after her disastrous mini-budget nearly crashed the London stock market.
- She was replaced by Rishi Sunak—who made a nicer kind of history as the first Indian origin UK PM. But he never quite endeared himself to either his own party workers—or the voters.
Now, the results
First, it is important to know that we only have projections right now—based on a single highly reliable exit poll. It is safe to assume that the final outcome will be in the ballpark.
The overall tallies: Labour is projected to win 410 seats—a landslide that falls short of Tony Blair’s record-breaking total of 418 seats in 1997. The Conservative total has plummeted from 365 to a mere 131, marking the worst defeat in 200 years. The silver lining: the party was not beaten by the Liberal Democrats (61 seats)—which would have raised existential questions about its future.
Rise of the right: Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform Party scored an unprecedented 13 seats. It doesn’t sound like much, but Farage is now well-positioned to make hay of Conservative misery. Farage’s grand plan is “to destroy the Tories by poaching much of their vote, then replace — or take over — the party’s remnants.” These 13 seats are a significant first step. Trend to note: Reform UK has come in second—ahead of the Conservatives in a string of early results,
But, but, but: Yes, Farage’s performance mirrors the worrying shift to the far-right across Europe. But it also makes Starmer—in ex-Labour parliamentary advisor Mike Harris’s grand words—“the only centre-left leader of a major economy with a parliamentary supermajority and the great hope for progressives all over the world.” Umm, in Europe, at least.
Revenge voting: The nicer term for this is ‘tactical voting’—where you vote for one party to keep the other out of power. So you vote for, say, Labour even though you heart the Liberal Democrats—because you don’t want the Tories to win. Most experts agree that the size of Labour’s victory reflects a tsunami of rage against the ruling party: “People are very, very angry about almost everything. I don't think I've been through an election that has quite that revenge feeling to it.”
Sayonara Sunak: This is undoubtedly the end of the road for Rishi—who will have already moved out of 10 Downing Street—as per brutal British tradition. He looked continually miserable—and out-of-step—throughout the campaign:
People wondered if Sunak’s advisers wanted him to lose. He was pictured on an airplane by an exit sign. He campaigned in the Titanic quarter in Belfast. (Inevitably he was asked: “Are you captaining a sinking ship?”) He went to a brewery in Wales, and asked workers if they were looking forward to the European football championships (Wales didn’t qualify). He made a campaign speech with his back to the cameras. He was peevish and grumpy, or, when lively, condescending and out of touch. When asked what he lacked as a child—30% of British children live in relative poverty—he groped for an answer and landed on Sky TV.
In the end, Rishi seems to have spawned more memes than votes. Our fave: Rishi trying to prevent a Labour landslide:
But, but, but: Fourteen years of Tory rule has served South Asians extremely well. Both David Cameron and Boris Johnson elevated desis to high positions-–giving them unprecedented visibility and clout. Think Priti Patel, Suella Braverman et al. Never mind that most have a special bloodlust for immigrants. Braverman will be one of the key contenders for Sunak’s replacement—though it won’t be quite as special for Indians. Sadly, distant relatives in Bangalore or Chennai cannot claim a connection.
Say hello to Prime Minister Starmer!
The Labour Party’s return to power may be dazzling in size, but is likely to be underwhelming in effect.
Centrist Starmer: He is not a raging leftist—although he joined the young socialists. His father was a toolmaker—and his mum a nurse. Starmer grew up blue-collar in a white-collar neighbourhood—and has been straddling that line ever since.
He became first a human rights lawyer—and then a prosecutor—and finally was knighted as Sir Keir in 2014. He first became an MP for London’s Holborn and St Pancras constituency in the 2015 election. And in 2020, he toppled his rabble-rousing, leftist mentor Jeremy Corbyn—and took his place as the leader of the Labour Party.
Quote to note: When confronted by climate change protesters recently, Starmer said: “We gave up on being a party of protests five years ago. We want to be a party of power.”
A delicious bit of trivia: Starmer was rumoured to be the inspiration for Mark Darcy in Bridget Jones.
A working class stiff: For all his establishment credentials, Starmer is the first Labour leader in a while who comes from a working class background. This has been a party of the likes of Tony Blair for a very long time. Starmer, OTOH, has “leaned into” the class struggle in the midst of an economic crisis:
We didn’t have a lot when we were growing up. Like millions of working-class children now, I grew up in a cost-of-living crisis. I know what it feels like to be embarrassed to bring your mates home because the carpet is threadbare and the windows cracked.
Say nothing Starmer: He won’t be a culture warrior for the left either. Starmer gets ahead by staying mum:
Part of Starmer’s success has been to take an oath of omertà on culture war issues. These include transgender rights, Britain’s colonial past, and immigration—all issues that the British right has tried to capitalise on.
What to expect: The character of a Starmer government is best summed up by Sunday Times columnist Gabriel Pogrund:
He has adopted a cautious, risk-averse approach. He's decided to sandpaper down all of his fiscal commitments. He's said he will preserve the government's position on Ukraine and other foreign policy positions. The biggest change won't be in terms of the political economy of the country, the ideology of government, it will be in reestablishing competence.
Don’t expect Starmer to take a radically different stance on Gaza either—though the party manifesto does promise to recognise a Palestine state.
Point to note: Starmer will be bolder on issues that matter to working families: fixing schools, the broken public health system (NHS), lopsided taxation and more. He will have to be, political pundit Paul Smith says:
Wages and working conditions and public services are in such a bad shape that people expect something to be done quickly and the expectations are very, very high and the offer is currently very, very tepid. Unless they bridge that gap, they will find themselves also in a great deal of trouble in a very short period of time.
The bottomline: At least, Rish-Rish can now escape to more welcoming environments—like NRN’s living room in Bangalore. And since we cannot resist gratuitous animal photos, here’s a winning electoral trend: #DogsAtPollingStations
Reading list
NPR has a lively report on Keir Starmer—while The Guardian explains why he won’t be rocking boats anytime soon. Politico rips apart Rishi Sunak—while the Washington Post decodes what this defeat means for the Tories. Vox has a great explainer on how Tories’ downfall is entirely self-inflicted. The Telegraph has more on the silver lining for South Asians.
