North vs South: Whose vote is it anyway?

TLDR: In 2026, there will be a significant readjustment of Lok Sabha seats as part of the delimitation exercise. These two charts map the truly remarkable impact on key states in North vs South India.

Byline: This edition’s eye candy has been designed by Aishwarya Viswanathan, a Bangalore-based information designer and illustrator. You can follow her on X at @aishyinabubble

The Lok Sabha seats of a state are supposed to be allocated on the basis of the most recent census. After each census, the government is supposed to undertake a ‘delimitation’ exercise—where the number and share of seats are readjusted to reflect changes in the population. But as of today, the distribution of seats in parliament is based on India’s population from the 1971 census—when it was only 54.8 crore (for reasons explained here). Crazy, right? 

The government is expected to finally correct this bizarre situation in 2026—and reallocate the seats in an exercise called delimitation. A study by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace crunched the numbers to see what the redistribution would look like—if the government used not the last census (in 2011) but projected population figures for 2026. 

Here are two charts that capture what that seismic change would look like. 

The first chart: gives you the big picture—capturing the seat change for 21 states. Look at the vast shifts for some states—like Bihar or Rajasthan or Kerala—while others like Maharashtra or Punjab remain virtually unchanged.

The second chart: spotlights the sea change in the number of seats allotted to key South and North Indian states. It shows the difference in seat share between the northern and southern states, out of the 275 up for grabs.  As you can see, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh—will collectively gain 31 seats. Four southern states—Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu—together will lose 24 seats. 

These two charts lie at the heart over the debate over representation. Should a party be able to win a national election—and claim to represent an entire country—by winning a handful of states? OTOH, shouldn’t a single Bihari count as much as a single Tamilian? In the end, which majority counts—of people or states?