Mahayuti in Maharashtra: Friends with benefits

First, some background

The outrageous plot twists of the Maha political drama has put Hindi serials to shame. Here’s a brief recap the past seasons:

• In 2019, Shiv Sena and the BJP joined to form the government. But the BJP emerged as the biggest party—and Devendra Fadnavis decided he wanted to be in the driver’s seat.
• Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) had zero intention of handing over the reins—and switched sides, joining Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. 
• BJP bided its time—scheming on the sidelines like a cartoon villain—looking for signs of weakness. 
• In 2022, it seduced an ambitious Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde—who switched sides taking 40 MLAs, 12 MPs—and eventually the party name and symbol with him. 
• Last year, senior NCP leader Ajit Pawar followed suit. This time, BJP’s haul was 42 MLAs and 2 MPs.

When the dust settled, Eknath Shinde was Chief Minister—with two Deputy CMs: Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. 

MVA versus Mahayuti: The current configuration centres on two rival gangs—Mahayuti vs Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA): 

• Mahayuti = BJP + Shinde Sena + Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Their seat sharing looks like this: 148 + 85 + 55, respectively.
• MVA = Congress + Uddhav Sena + Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Their seat sharing looks like this: 102 + 94 + 85, respectively. 
• There are other minor players including Samajwadi Party and Raj Thackeray’s MNS.
• Congress and BJP go head-to-head in 75 seats this time. Last time, they faced off in 66 seats—of which Congress won only 16.
• The two rival Senas will take each other on in 47 seats—including the jewel in the Maha crown: Mumbai.
• The two factions of the Pawar khandaan will battle it out in 38 seats.

The winning total: 145 out of 288.

What the polls say: The most recent survey predicts a clear victory for Mahayuti—which is predicted to win between 145 and 165 seats. Maha Vikas Aghadi will be limited to 106 to 126 seats. Other pre-election surveys appear to agree. OTOH, the same opinion surveys were proved entirely wrong—most recently in Haryana.

Why this election matters: This is the first state election to be held after these tectonic shifts in political loyalties. It is also a referendum on BJP’s old-fashioned formula for winning elections: break (the rival), remake (the coalition), and rule (the state). It will also be a test of the Lok Sabha verdict—which was widely seen as a rebuke of this strategy. 

The MVA won 30 out of 48 Parliament seats—supposedly due to a sympathy wave for the betrayed Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Both Congress and the BJP got about the same percentage of votes. But when you compare their partners—Shinde’s Shiv Sena (13%) Ajit Pawar’s NCP (3.6%) performed far worse than Uddhav’s Shiv Sena (16.9%) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (10.3%).

But, but, but: The overall vote share difference between the alliances is negligible: The MVA secured 43.71% votes while the Mahayuti got 43.55%—a difference of 0.16 percentage points. And as Haryana showed, Lok Sabha wins often bear little relation to Assembly election outcomes. The Congress won five out of ten LS seats in 2024. In October, it won only 36 legislative seats—compared to BJP’s 48.

Data point to note: According to Indian Express, the election will come down to 31 low-margin constituencies.

Mahayuti magic: Mahila + Modi

Women have proved decisive in rightwing victories around the world—be it in the US or closer home. However, in the BJP’s case, it has used benefits—not ideology—to court women’s votes—and with great success. Example: Madhya Pradesh the laadli behena scheme gave women Rs 1,000 per month, no questions asked. The investment resulted in a bumper harvest. Almost 50% of women picked the ruling BJP—10 percentage points more than Congress—and six percentage points higher than men.

Say hello to Ladki Bahin: The scheme—which offers Rs 1,500 per month—has been hugely successful—reaching 18.5 million women out of 46 million female voters in the state. Eight in 10 voters are aware of it, and seven in 10 have benefited directly from it. And it is the only state welfare scheme that shows any kind of impact on voting preferences—in pre-election surveys. Beneficiaries were more likely to vote for the ruling Mahayuti than non-beneficiaries. FYI: The MVA has promised to up the ante to Rs 3,000 per month.

As always, Modi-ji: The PM’s charisma remains undented—especially in the cities. Urban voters are also more swayed by Modi-tva—than their own financial realities, say experts:

This appeal intertwines with the ideology of Hindutva, which has significant traction among urban voters who see it as a unifying identity, although it often diverts focus from economic realities, [Mumbai-based journalist Abhay Deshpande] said. Middle-class and upper-middle-class voters in urban centres are focusing on Modi’s persona rather than on inflation and other pressing issues due to “aggressive campaigning” by the ruling Mahayuti, says political critic Prof. Surendra Jondhale.

Shinde rising: There are also signs that Eknath Shinde has managed to come out of the long shadow cast by the Thackerays—and his de facto boss—BJP chief Devendra Fadnavis:

But by most accounts, he has grown into the job. And there isn't much negativity towards him, even among many voters who may otherwise be unhappy with the Mahayuti. Shinde may not be charismatic or a great orator but he is seen as a hard working CM and a down-to-earth politician. The credit for many of the Mahayuti's schemes - especially Ladki Bahin - seems to have gone to Shinde and not the BJP.

But, but, but: This may prove to be an unexpected minus for the campaign. The BJP has focused almost exclusively on Modi and Fadnavis. In fact, Amit Shah recently said:

Around one-and-a-half-month ago, I toured Maharashtra…I went to Mumbai, Konkan, Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, Marathwada…wherever I went the feeling was that…Maha Yuti ki sarkar banani hai…Devendra Bhai ki vijayi banana hai (we have to make Maha Yuti government and make Fadnavis victorious)

All of which could muddy the waters for voters inclined to forgive Shinde for playing Brutus to Uddhav’s Caesar. 

MVA mantra: I feel your pain!

The Opposition campaign is focused entirely on distress—of rising prices and disappearing jobs. Rural voters are far less enamoured with Modi for one reason—inflation: 

Inflation is driving up the costs of essentials, and the Goods and Services Tax (GST) imposed on fertilisers is stretching farmers’ already thin margins. Many voters in the rural heartland are vocal about the need for better MSPs and relief from rising input costs. “Modi’s government talks about development, but we’re just seeing higher prices and less support.”

It is also the MVA’s main defence against the allure of welfare schemes—which don’t buy you much these days, as Sharad Pawar points out:

But I must tell you about one incident. While travelling, I stopped to talk to 15-20 women working in a field and asked them whether they have received the money and are happy about it? The women said they did get the money, but this government is giving money from one hand and taking it out from our pockets with the other as prices of everything have increased so much. That’s the general sentiment.

Show me the jobs: Since farming no longer pays the bills, young men are migrating to cities—where jobs are scarce on the ground. This dilemma, in turn, is fuelling furious demands for reservations—especially among young Maratha men who previously thrived on their community’s agrarian clout. 

But, but, but: The BJP is mobilising the resentment of other backward castes—including Dalits—to counter the Marathas. Political pundits call it the Ma-Dha-Va alliance—“a Marathi acronym for Mali (gardener), Dhangar (shepherd), and Vanjari (a semi-nomadic caste).” The election may become a tipping point in caste power politics—much as Haryana—where the BJP won despite enraging Jat farmers and wrestlers. 

The not-so-‘safe’ bet: The BJP is openly playing the Muslim card—but this time, it may backfire—at least on its allies. Yogi Adityanath thundered: “Batenge, toh katenge” (divided, we fall). Soon after, Modi declared, “Ek hain, toh safe hain” (together, one is safe). The person most unhappy with these rallying cries for Hindu unity: Ajit Pawar—who said in response:

The life and teachings of Shivaji are inclusive, and had united all communities and classes. People from other states often come to Maharashtra and speak their mind but such remarks are not liked by the people here and are unacceptable.

Ajit is worried the rah-rah Hindutva will hurt his candidates—fighting his uncle in NCP strongholds for the Muslim vote. What’s interesting: Shinde Sena isn’t thrilled with the rhetoric, either. The reason: Muslims are the swing vote in 30 constituencies across the state.

The bottomline: Caste itself has less political traction in Maharashtra—compared to places like Haryana and Bihar. And the splitting of parties—and bedfellows—has diluted the edge of ideology. Both sides now have a Shiv Sena and an NCP faction—making it  hard to differentiate one from the other. This is a battle between welfare politics and economic pain. But, but, but: The ultimate winner will likely be decided after the election—when the fight for the CM gaddi kicks off a new round of musical chairs.

Reading list

The Print has more on why the BJP is playing the Muslim card—and why its allies are unhappy. NDTV reports on the desperation of Ajit Pawar—will he defect right back to the NCP? The Hindu is best on the urban-rural divide over the BJP—and why Maharashtra is different from Haryana. Business Standard has more on the BJP’s strategy of consolidating an anti-Maratha coalition. Deccan Herald reports on the attempt to push Fadnavis as the next CM. Indian Express identifies the 30-odd constituencies that will decide this election.