The Prajwal effect on the Karnataka elections 

First, tell me about this Prajwal Revanna…

The family tree: He belongs to the Gowda family that controls JD(S)—the most powerful regional party in Karnataka. Prajwal is the son of ex-minister HD Revanna—and grandson of JD(S) founder and former Prime Minister Deve Gowda. His uncle HD Kumaraswamy was Chief Minister and now runs the party. Prajwal is the sole JD(S) MP from the district of Hassan in Karnataka. In other words, Prajwal could take down the entire family—and even the party—with him. 

Quick backstory: Prajwal is an engineering grad—but his primary ambition was to rise in the family business. Until now, he was best known as a rabble rouser—who played out family feuds in public:

When he was denied ticket to contest from Hunsur in the 2018 assembly elections, his remark that “hardworking people get to sit in the back but those with suitcases get front seats”, aimed at Mr. Kumaraswamy, rattled the party leadership. Not hesitating to express his displeasure, Mr. Deve Gowda had said, “The boy’s future does not seem bright if he continues to talk like this.” However, he later vacated his seat to his grandson, and Prajwal was also made the party’s general secretary.

The Kumaraswamy branch of the family—which has held power—has never been keen on giving him a Lok Sabha ticket.

The default heir: Unfortunately for Kumaraswamy, his son proved to be a zero in politics. And Prajwal’s brother is not much better. Despite all the feuding, Prajwal had emerged as the only heir left standing. And it helped that he finally had grandad’s blessing: 

By 2024 things had shifted so dramatically that Kumaraswamy publicly endorsed him at a campaign saying, “Consider him as my own son.” This massive transition in the party came right from the top with Deve Gowda indicating his preference for Prajwal by lavishing praise on him. This sent a message that he trusted Prajwal to take the party forward and marked him out as the crown prince.

Very important point to note: The sex abuse allegations against Prajwal first emerged in 2023. In other words, the family knew about them when he was awarded a ticket in 2024—over Kumaraswamy’s objections.

Content warning: The following paragraphs contain descriptions of sexual assault that may be difficult to read.

The sex abuse case: The basic deets

All the evidence is contained in a single pen drive with 2,976 files—most of which are chats and video calls, plus 100 videos. These allegedly show Prajwal assaulting women of various ages and backgrounds. The police have identified 50 women—and are trying to track down 25 others. The survivors included party workers, wives of party leaders, household help, government officials etc. They were raped in his family farm in Hassan and house in Bangalore—and even at Deve Gowda’s home.

The pattern: We are not going to wallow in the details of the violence. Suffice to say that the women can be seen begging Prajwal to stop. He not only raped them, but also videotaped the assault—to blackmail them into submitting again and again. We offer only one example of this MO:

A political worker of the JD(S), 44, alleged that Prajwal raped her at his official residence in Hassan when she had gone to meet him in 2021 seeking seats for some women students in a hostel. She said he threatened to kill her and her husband if she did not cooperate. She also alleged that Prajwal took out his mobile phone and recorded the act. “He said he would make this video public if I told anyone. He said he was not visible in the video, while I was. He said I had to have sex with him whenever he called me. Later too, he used to make video calls to me asking me to strip, and harass me. He has sexually assaulted me multiple times in these years and blackmailed me saying he will make the video public,” she said in her complaint.

The cases: There are three rape cases against Prajwal. These include a woman in her 60s who worked as a domestic help. She was rescued from a farmhouse—after Prajwal’s father HD Revanna kidnapped her—to prevent her from testifying. The other two cases are based on complaints filed by a maid and political worker.

Like father, like son? According to a ground report filed by The Print from Hassan, the entire Revanna family treated the women in their district as sexual property:

Locals allege that such was the extent of alleged sexual abuse in this town that families would often not bring young women to weddings, fearing that they would be ‘liked’ by members of the Revanna family, who would seek the young women’s details and later call them home. 

Prajwal seems to have been following in his father’s footsteps:

H.D. Revanna… allegedly preyed on vulnerable women employed at the family’s farms, party workers, and even government officials… “Revanna would send files for signatures to a senior officer, who would assign them to a woman of Revanna’s choice. She would be directed to take the files to a secluded guest house inside KMF,” he said. “People’s jobs were at stake. Saying no was not an option.”

So what changed? Elections?

This case has been intertwined with Karnataka politics from the very outset. Given the Revannas’ reign of fear, their crimes would likely never have come to light if it didn’t suit the interests of their rivals. Here’s a quick timeline of how the assaults became public.

The gag order: The videos had begun to circulate last year—and rumours surfaced in media circles. In June 2023, a proactive Prajwal managed to get a sweeping court order banning 86 media outlets and three individuals from sharing "morphed" photos and videos. He seems to have gotten away with it.

BJP leader raises alarm: The first sign of trouble comes in December—when a local BJP leader G Devaraje Gowda brings up the tapes—and the court order. He claims to have shared the infamous pen drive with both the BJP and Congress leadership. And he warns his party against allying itself with the JD(S). All of this to no avail. 

A downpour of pen drives: On April 23, the clips start to surface online—just three days before the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka. On April 24, blurred videos and testimonies were aired on regional TV channels. By April 25, they are strewn all across Prajwal’s district Hassan. On the very same day, the Karnataka State Commission for Women wrote to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah demanding a probe—which was finally announced on April 27.

Prajwal does a runner: On April 27, everyone also wakes up to the fact that the suspect has already left the country on April 26. There is great tu-tu main-main over who allowed him to flee. Apparently, Prajwal has a diplomatic passport that exempts him from visa requirements—a privilege extended to all MPs (who knew!). So everyone disclaims any responsibility for his great escape.

Where are now: Interpol has issued a Blue Corner Notice against Prajwal—which is among the least serious kind. It’s basically an ‘enquiry notice’ about a ‘missing person’—who is “a person of interest in an investigation.” His lawyer insists Prajwal has every intention of returning. 

Interesting bit to note: Prajwal still has his fancy passport—which again has become political fodder:

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has maintained that the SIT is “impartial” and has written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking his intervention to cancel Prajwal’s diplomatic passport immediately, so that the MP is forced to return to India. Prajwal’s passport has not been cancelled yet. Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have hit back saying law and order is a State issue.

Surely, this will affect the elections…

Well, as we explained in this Big Story, political pundits are split over whether the BJP can repeat its 2019 feat—of winning 25 out 28 seats. It seemed a bit unlikely—which is why it teamed up with JD(S)—hoping its South Karnataka stronghold will help dent Congress gains. So where does this leave the main players now?

The BJP: The good news is that JD(S) only received tickets for three seats—of which it had won only one in 2019—i.e Hassan. At best, it will lose that one seat—which is a small price to pay for ridding itself of Prajwal’s nasty baggage. 

The bad news: The Congress has found an excellent weapon to whack BJP where it hurts the most—women voters: 

A Belagavi-based English journalist… said: “The magnitude of Revanna’s sexual crimes has meant that women voters of the area, including BJP’s traditional supporters, will either vote against the BJP or will not vote at all.” This could be a serious concern for the BJP as Modi enjoyed wide support among women across north Karnataka: this was evident in the massive margins of victory for the BJP in 2019 wherever women turnout was more than that of men.

The JD(S): Some predict that the Prajwal scandal will be a “death knell” for the party—which was already routed in the 2023 Assembly elections. For a change, it may be Congress that woos away JD(S) leaders—gutting the party in two. This will be especially sweet for Siddaramaiah—since BJP-JD(S) leaders have been crowing about his government’s imminent downfall. Kumaraswamy boasted it will “crumble by December” due to infighting.

The Vokkaliga factor: Karnataka politics is dominated by the rivalry between two dominant communities—Lingayats and Vokkaligas.The JD(S) primary claim to electoral fame: its monopoly of the Vokkaliga vote. That advantage has made it a formidable regional player. But in the 2023 election, JD(S) lost a great part of its base to both the Congress and BJP. 

Congress Deputy CM DK Shivakumar is doing his best to wrest the baton of Vokkaliga leadership—and anoint himself the true heir of Deve Gowda. The Prajwal scandal most definitely improves the odds. According to a senior JD(S) leader:

[M]ost of the MLAs were worried about their future by continuing their association with the JD(S) as the sleaze episode of Prajwal had now loosened the Gowda family’s grip over the Vokkaliga community. “The party and leaders could have defended if it were clips of one or two women. But unfortunately, clips with multiple victims cannot be defended at all. We have become helpless in this case. Even the Vokkaliga community may not like to associate with Gowda family as earlier,” he explained.

Interesting tidbit: Prajwal’s brother Suraj Revanna reportedly met Shivakumar just before the elections were announced. So we could soon get a political soap opera—with a bitter family feud thrown in for extra masala.

But, but, but: The JD(S) downfall may be exactly what Amit Shah ordered. The BJP has always gained new territory by filling a political vacuum—usually created when a once-powerful party falls from grace. Think Congress/Left in West Bengal. If JD(S) falls by the wayside, it gives the BJP exactly what it wants: A head-to-head with Congress.

And this where the plot thickens: 

Though JD(S) workers have blamed the Congress, there has been a buzz in political circles that BJP workers played a major role in circulating the videos… Karthik Gowda, a former driver of Prajwal, who has released a video message from an undisclosed location, claimed that he downloaded the videos from Prajwal’s phone, transferred them to his own phone, and handed them over to [BJP leader] Devaraje, who leaked them.

The latest twist: It may have been a joint venture between Congress and the BJP—supposedly sworn rivals. A new audio clip appears to show Congress leader Shivarame Gowda trying to convince BJP’s Devaraje to make the pen drives public. If you’re wondering about the source of the leak: 

When the BJP leader points out that it is not right to share the videos as it will affect the lives of the victims, the Congress leader is heard telling him that Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently said in Chennai that Karnataka is not a safe place for women.

Devaraje recently claimed that Shivakumar offered him Rs 100 crore to circulate the clips.

The bottomline: Like all expert blackmailers, Prajwal made sure his face remained hidden on the clips—while exposing the women. They endured years of assault in order to keep their identities hidden. Whether Prajwal is brought to justice or not, their worst nightmare has now come true:  

“I feel like a snake that has been almost stoned to death. And they continue to throw stones at it just to see if it is dead.” Some have turned the situation into a game by tracing the identities of the women in the videos and harassing them either on social media platforms or through phone messages. This constant taunting and mocking makes the women feel as if they are being violated daily. “I know I will never be free of this. They will never let me be happy, they will never let me forget. If I show the slightest bit of recovering from this ordeal, they will make sure they rake the issue up again and break my spirit,” a survivor said.

The ultimate injury: the women’s suffering has now become a weapon in the fight to gain political advantage.

Reading list

The News Minute has a couple of fantastic pieces: testimonies of the survivors and the power of Prajwal Revanna. The Print looks at why this scandal may be a boon for Kumaraswamy and the Revanna rule of terror in the ‘republic of Hassan’. Srikar Raghavan in Indian Express assesses the weakened state of the BJP—while the Economic Times looks at the impact for the JD(S). The Hindu has the best overview of the state of electoral play in Karnataka. Scroll has more on the astonishing number of media gag orders in the state.