French election: A shocker win for the Left

French elections: It’s complicated

France holds two separate national elections. One to elect the president—and the other to elect members of Parliament. It is also one of the few democracies in Europe to hold its elections in two rounds. This is how the parliamentary election works:

• There are 577 seats in the National Assembly—and the majority mark is 289.
• The first round eliminates anyone who receives less than 12.5% of the vote in their constituency.
• OTOH, anyone who wins more than 50% of the vote is declared the winner—and there is no second round. This is rare.
• Two to three candidates make it to the second round—and compete in run-offs. The person with the most votes wins. 

There are three main contenders on the French political scene.

Jordan Bardella: The 28-year old is the leader of the far-right National Rally party. He is young, good looking—with a highly relatable working class background. Bardella was chosen to lead the party—after presidential contender Marie Le Pen lost out to Emannuel Macron in 2022. Le Pen is Far-Right royalty—the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen—the founder of the fascist National Front party. Bardella is part of the bigger move to whitewash the party’s nasty roots:

"From a pure marketing perspective, he is an excellent product," said [political consultant] Christophe Gervasi… He described Bardella as "kneadable," or able to be moulded into shape, while also being enough of "a blank page" for voters to project their own views onto him. Citing his own poll findings, Gervasi said Bardella had opened up whole new voter segments for the far right, including older and middle-class voters for whom the Le Pen name has long been toxic.

He is expected to become prime minister if his party wins a parliamentary majority. 

Gabriel Attal: is the current prime minister—the youngest to hold the post since World War II—and the first who is openly gay. A member of the ruling Renaissance party, Attal carries all the baggage associated with being Macron’s protege. In a recent poll, only 27% said that Macron is a good president. He is so unpopular that he’s been asked not to campaign. None of which bodes well for a man often called ‘baby Macron’. Attal leads a coalition of centrist parties called Ensemble (Together).

Jean-Luc Melenchon: is the president of France Unbowed—and leader of a coalition of Left parties called New Popular Front (NFP). He is as leftist as they come: 

A fiery orator, Melenchon is one of the most divisive figures in French politics, enthusing and horrifying voters with his unbridled tax-and-spend proposals, class war rhetoric and controversial foreign policy positions, especially on Gaza.

That said, it isn’t clear if Melenchon will become PM, but he is certainly the man who calls the shots for the alliance.

Ok, tell me what happened…

First, it is important to lay out what happened in the first round. 

The first round fallout: Round one of the election was held on June 30. The National Rally (RN) won 33% of the popular vote—followed by the Left coalition NFP (28%) and Together (21%). There were 506 seats up for grabs in the second round—as 76 candidates were directly elected—after winning more than 50% of the vote.

Unite and block: In the second round, centrist and left-leaning parties withdrew candidates to avoid splitting the vote—to keep the National Rally out of power. As a result, 218 candidates dropped out after the first round. Of these, 130 belonged to the NFP—and 82 were from Macron’s Ensemble alliance. Data point to note: Going in, there were less than 100 three-way contests. 

The big result: The concerted campaign to block the Right was a blockbuster success—but to the benefit of the Left alliance, not Macron. The leftwing New Popular Front won 182 seats—followed by Macron’s centrist Together alliance (163 seats)—with National Rally coming in third (143 seats).

A hung parliament: The real outcome, however, may be political gridlock—which reflects a highly divided French electorate:

Although the left alliance won the most seats, it was more than 100 seats short of an absolute majority. Amid a high turnout estimated at about 67%, no single group won an absolute majority of 289 seats and the ability to form a government.

Kaun banega PM? That’s the big question. The current PM—Gabriel Attal—has announced his resignation. But he’s also offered to stay in office until the end of the Olympics—which starts on July 26. However, the always abrasive Melenchon has already demanded Macron appoint a prime minister from his alliance—“and implement the entirety of the NFP’s programme.” 

But, but, but: There are signs of dissent within the NFP ranks:

Greens leader Marine Tondelier agreed the Popular Front was now ready to govern France: "We've won and now we're going to govern France." But she said now was not the time to push for a new prime minister.

This kind of confusion is likely to become the new normal in the months ahead.

The Macron dilemma: As per the law, Macron as president can pick any prime minister he likes. However, the parliament can—in turn—force the resignation of the president. As a result, the president typically picks someone from the largest bloc. But, but, but: “appointing a radical left prime minister would run the risk of repeated no-confidence votes backed not just by the centre right and far right, but possibly from the president’s camp too.” 

Point to note: Everyone is worried about Melenchon and his party’s hard Left position—including his allies. 

Coalition dharma? France has little experience with coalitions—which have resulted in chaos in the distant past. But leaders from the left and centre have suggested that it may be time to put on those grown-up pants: 

“We are in a divided assembly; we have to behave like adults,” said Raphaël Glucksmann, who led the Socialist list in the European elections. “Parliament must be the heart of power in France.” Nobody had won, Bayrou noted, adding that the “days of an absolute majority are over” and it would be up to “everyone to sit at a table, and accept their responsibilities”. 

So this is the end of the far right?

Hardly. The National Rally has nearly doubled its seat count from 89 in 2022 to 143 in 2024. PM hopeful Bardella—though disappointed—pointed out that his party had been kept out by extreme political manoeuvring. And Marie Le Pen sounded a more ominous note: “The tide is rising – our victory has only been delayed.” Reminder: 

On April 24, 2022, on the evening of the second round of a presidential election that ended with more sadness than satisfaction at the 13 million votes she'd garnered, far-right Rassemblement National (RN) candidate Marine Le Pen called the re-elected president, Emmanuel Macron, and made him a promise: "If we take 3 million voters every five years, next time, it'll be us."

Le Pen has made good on her promise—even if RN did not win the election. 

The key point to note: The Far Right is now a bona fide third party force—which is here to stay. Each seat or vote gained by the party makes it more okay for mainstream voters to support RN: “The party likes to say that the RN vote has a ‘ratchet effect’: Those who have taken the plunge rarely go back.”

The bottomline: Macron took a huge gamble by calling for snap elections—two years ahead of schedule. He hoped the result would seal support for him and other centrists—as a bastion against the rising right. Instead, the elections confirmed that there is only one thing that unites most French voters—if you add up the support for Left and Right—their disdain for Macron: “This was a personal rejection. People no longer want Macron bringing them together.”

Reading list

The Guardian offers a broad overview—and is very good on what happens next. New York Times and Associated Press look at how Macron lost the plot. BBC News has the far right’s response to the outcome. Washington Post has loads more on the National Popular Front. France24 has more on Macron’s political calculations—when choosing the next PM.