BJP’s secret advantage: The most enthu voter
TLDR: The BJP’s most powerful electoral brahmastra is voter enthusiasm. The numbers are eye-opening—as is the gap between Muslim and upper caste voters.
This edition’s eye candy is brought to you by Sharath Ravishankar, a Bangalore-based information designer and illustrator. Check out his great work and reach out on Instagram @shirtshanks
Enthusiastic voters turn up on poll day and vote for their preferred party and candidate, possibly taking others along with them. Unenthusiastic supporters, on the other hand, may not register their preference on a ballot, for many reasons. Despite having an equal right, their “support” or “opposition” won’t matter in the grand tamasha of counting seats to fill the Lok Sabha.
This is why voter turnout— not just in terms of how many citizens turn up to vote, but in particular, who turns up—often decides a party or alliance’s electoral fortunes.
As the parties make grand arrangements to mobilize supporters of different religions, castes, and sub-castes to get out the vote, these unique data points from Lokniti CSDS’ survey conducted just before the 2019 general elections deserves attention. The survey measured how “likely” voters are to register their vote, relative to the NDA and UPA alliances.
The first chart: shows that those who are most enthusiastic about voting are also more likely to vote for the BJP-led NDA:
Looked at another way: When likely voters for various alliances/parties were asked how determined they were to vote, almost 75% of NDA supporters said they were ‘very likely’—compared to 61% for Congress and 63% for others.
About that Muslim vote: As a community, four in ten Muslims surveyed were not sure if they will register to vote. OTOH, seven out of ten upper-caste voters are very certain about casting their vote.
Why this matters: the only social group among which the BJP failed to make gains in 2019 were Muslims. Its vote share remained almost the same at 8%, while upper middle class and rich vote share rose to 44%.
But, but, but: is there such a thing as a Muslim “vote bank” in India? Carnegie Endowment’s Feyaad Allie’s fascinating analysis of the 2019 results suggests otherwise. Yes, there has been greater consolidation in response to the BJP’s strategy of polarisation, but in various parts of the country, the Muslim vote is still split among various parties. Lighter shaded bits of the map reflect vote splitting—across caste and sect—while darker gradients symbolise consolidation.
PS: We highly recommend reading Allie’s excellent paper to get a fresh perspective on the “Muslim vote.” FYI: Carnegie also has an ongoing series on the 2024 elections that’s worth your time.
Something to think about: In 2019, the BJP, which is perceived to be an anti-Muslim party, won 36 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in which Muslims form 20% of the population. While the past few elections have seen an increased consolidation of Hindu votes under the BJP, Muslims votes have remained split between the Congress and strong regional parties. Does this mean the Muslim “vote bank” is now irrelevant?
