Regime change in Karnataka?

What happened in Karnataka?

Over the weekend, Karnataka Governor Thaawarchand Gehlot sanctioned the prosecution of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah on charges of corruption. Here’s the crux of this case.

The timeline: The case involves an allotment of land to his wife by the Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA)—back in 2021. It is based on complaints filed by three activists. The land involved: 3.16 acres. The case is best laid out as a timeline:

• In 1992, MUDA issues a notification to acquire 3.16 acres belonging to a person named Ninga bin Javara in Mysore—to develop part of a neighbourhood named Devanur Layout.
• But that notification is cancelled in 2001—and the land reverts to the owner in 2003.
• Then in 2004, Siddaramaiah’s brother-in-law Mallikarjunaswamy purchases the same 3.16 acres as ‘agricultural’ land. 
• In 2005, the land is converted for non-agricultural use—and in 2010, Mallikarjunaswamy gifts that land to his sister Parvathi—Siddaramaiah’s wife.
• In 2014, Parvathi complains that MUDA has been developing sites owned by her—without her knowledge or permission. At this time, Siddaramaiah is serving his first term as CM. 
• MUDA admits its error in 2017 and offers to give her other land as compensation.

The 50/50 scheme: In 2020, the BJP government introduced a 50-50 scheme for land acquisition. Here’s how it works: Let’s say MUDA acquires an acre of land—which is around 44,000 feet. When it is developed, only around 23,000 square feet is available for residential property—since the rest goes into roads, parks etc. Under the 50-50 scheme, the land owner will be compensated with 50% of the remaining 23,000 square feet—i.e 11,500 square feet. The owner receives this land in lieu of payment. 

The allegations: are as follows. One: Parvathi was “compensated” with 14 sites in a different upscale area—whose value is way higher than the land taken by MUDA in her village. Two: Even the original sale deed showing the sale of the land to her brother are forged. 

The defence: Siddaramaiah’s salty comeback is that MUDA took over his wife’s village land without properly acquiring it. This is why it had to compensate her under the 50/50 scheme—devised by the BJP government, no less. Now, if it wants that those 14 upmarket plots back, then MUDA owes him Rs 62 crore:

What could I have done if they (MUDA) gave me a site in some other place because there was no space on the land that was ours? I didn’t ask for any specific locality. It was MUDA that made the mistake.

Umm, all of it sounds shady to me…

So it is. The misuse of the 50/50 scheme was repeatedly called out by senior bureaucrats. It was finally canned by the Congress government in 2023. But, but, but: It did not retrospectively cancel 1,328 allotments made under the program—whose beneficiaries included netas from various parties and prominent religious or educational institutions. And as Siddaramaiah points out, MUDA allocated those plots to his wife—when its chairman was a BJP man. 

Also notable: The petitions filed by the activists only focus on Siddaramaiah’s 3.6 acres—and makes no mention of any other suspect 50/50 schemes. 

So what happens now? Siddu goes to jail?

Not yet. The governor’s directive cited two separate laws. The sanction granted under the Prevention of Corruption Act authorises an investigation. But a court cannot take up these charges without a second sanction issued by the governor. 

That said, Gehlot appears to be hedging his bets—since he also invoked the recently revised—and far more draconian—criminal codes. These allow a court to directly take on the case– based on available evidence without any need of an investigation. So the threat of imprisonment is real.

How does this help the BJP? 

The saffron party has long deployed an effective ‘divide and conquer’ strategy—though not always with success over the past year. In this case too, the aim was to widen the wedge between the two Congress stalwarts—Siddaramaiah and his Deputy CM DK Shivakumar—who have been feuding for the throne for decades. 

In fact, the BJP claimed that it received “documentary evidence” on the scam from Congress insiders. And a union minister coyly told Hindustan Times:

We are not looking at destabilising the Karnataka government. The people have given a mandate to the Congress and we respect it. However, we will demand nothing short of an enquiry by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) into the scam and the chief minister Siddaramaiah has to step down until the charges against him are cleared.

Surely a happy prospect for Shivakumar—who would be his logical successor. For a time, it seemed as though the BJP had got its wish—with increasing talk of Congress’ “weak” defence of Siddaramaiah. 

But, but, but: Siddu seems to have weathered the storm—with wisdom prevailing over short-term greed. A cabinet meeting—presided over by Shivakumar—declared the party’s undiminished loyalty. If there is to be a coup—it will not be staged from within the palace. The party has decided to brazen it out instead:

There is no question of him (Siddaramaiah) exiting. In this country, there are hundreds of persons with cases against them who are ministers at the Centre or in states. When there are persons who are ministers despite cases against them, the question does not arise of a resignation in Karnataka over a case.

Adding mirch to masala: Congress leader Priyank Kharge fired a warning shot of his own—saying “half of the BJP leaders in the state will either be in jail or running for bail in the next six months”—once the ruling party begins its own investigations.

So this is just a passing tamasha?

For now. But it can just as easily become a full-blown crisis overnight—and for three reasons:

One: Shivakumar has been eager to take the reins since the 2023 state elections—when he was seen as one of the main architects of the party’s victory. He stepped aside for the 78-year old Siddaramaiah—in interests of party unity—but his ambition burns brighter than ever. More so as he’s increasingly seen as the chosen leader of the powerful Vokkaliga community—which can make or break electoral fortunes in Karnataka.

In June, a prominent Vokkaliga seer called on the CM to step down—and make way for DKS. Around the same time, Siddaramaiah was contemplating appointing two other Deputy CMs to dilute his power. That simmering conflict is exactly what the BJP can and will exploit.

Two: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is still in jail. The Delhi governor successfully took him out of action in the lead up to the Lok Sabha election—on very little evidence (see: This Big Story). But the BJP was not punished for its presumption—winning seven of seven LS seats in the capital. That lesson has been well learned—and will not be forgotten anytime soon. For now, the union government has not brought out its big guns—the infamous Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA)—which is designed to keep a person in jail without bail—or proof of guilt.

Three: The arrest ‘em strategy sometimes bears fruit months later—as in the case of Jharkhand. Chief Minister Hemant Soren was forced to step down in a similar land corruption case—and sent to jail. He turned the baton over to his deputy Jharkhand Mukti Morcha leader Champai Soren. 

All seemed well when Hemant returned to the gaddi—after being granted bail—in June. Champai seemed content to step down—until recent weeks. He is now in Delhi—reportedly cutting a deal with the BJP: “BJP managers in Jharkhand had been in touch with Champai since he was forced to quit as chief minister, egging him on to defect along with party MLAs loyal to him.” No doubt the BJP is working on a similar game plan with DKS. 

The bottomline: All undeserved things come to those who wait.

Reading list

Deccan Herald has the timeline of the scandal—while The Hindu offers a detailed explainer on MUDA. Indian Express reports on corruption in MUDA—which extends across parties—and the political skulduggery involved. The Hindu also looks at the laws being invoked. Our previous Big Story looked at how anti-corruption laws are being used to arrest pesky CMs.