Age of irrelevance: The COP29 summit in Baku

Written by: Aarthi Ramnath, Aakriti Anand, Raghav Bikhchandani & Yash Budhwar

Age of irrelevance: The COP29 summit in Baku

As we noted yesterday, many expect Donald Trump’s return to the White House to mark the decline of US power—as Washington retreats into an isolationist shell. The COP summit in Baku shows the Trump effect is already underway.

What is COP29? COP is shorthand for the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Climate Change—an annual meeting of countries which meet to craft a shared strategy to save the planet. One such meeting—COP21—resulted in the Paris Agreement—which was the first to set the goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C.

About the venue: COP28 was held in Dubai—a leading oil producer. The president is the owner of Abu Dhabi’s biggest oil company—and he’s now been caught using the summit to cut deals on the side. This year, the summit is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan—also a leading oil producer. You can literally bathe in crude oil in this city:

The Trump-sized millstone: The Donald infamously doesn’t subscribe to the notion of global warming—and is downright hostile to any climate change policy. He pulled out of the Paris agreement during his first term—and is widely expected to do the same again. On the matter of fossil fuels, Trump’s mantra is ‘Drill, baby, drill’. He is expected to gut financing for green energy in the US.

Quote to note: The current White House has been forced to make soothing noises—to calm global fears of what havoc the future White House will wreak—which is surely unprecedented:

Are we facing new headwinds? Absolutely. But will we revert back to the energy system of the 1950s? No way… This is not the end of our fight for a cleaner, safer planet… The fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country.

For some odd reason, no one feels reassured.

The climate finance bomb: The lightning rod issue raises temperatures at every climate change summit. The reason: so-called advanced nations have spent decades spewing emissions into the atmosphere to become prosperous. The US and the EU alone have contributed a whopping 45%. Developing countries rightly argue that they should shell out money to help them cope with global warming.

Where we are now: COP27 in Glasgow established the first ever fund for climate damage for vulnerable countries—financed by US et al. The primary aim of COP29 in Baku is to lay the ground rules for climate finance. But Trump has no intention of keeping those commitments.

Enter Beijing: China is already moving in to fill the vacuum left by US leadership—using green energy as leverage:

It has vaulted to global leadership in renewable-energy deployment and is spending billions on green-energy projects across the developing world. Poorer nations increasingly look to Beijing for help shifting away from fossil fuels… Chinese leaders have thrown the country’s titanic economic power behind the shift to clean energy for economic, environmental and geostrategic reasons.

But, but, but: There could be a hefty price for global leadership. Advanced countries have been pushing emerging economies like India and China to contribute to the climate finance fund. Fair enough since China is now the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Beijing has resisted the idea so far.

The issue of tariffs: Last year, the EU imposed a carbon tax on imports that have a higher carbon footprint. That’s the first thing Beijing wants to discuss in Baku—since these taxes hurt developing countries the most. The EU and US are reluctant—but China could wring some concessions—if it commits to doing more on climate finance.

The main takeaway: This is where the United States is:

By some estimates, compared with Mr. Biden’s policies, Mr. Trump’s plans could add about four billion tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere by 2030. That’s about equal to the amount produced annually by the world’s 140 lowest emitting countries.

This is where China is:

The pace of China’s wind- and solar-capacity additions is now roughly large enough to cover its growth in energy demand, meaning that its emissions may have already peaked. More important, green technology sectors have become core to China’s economy; Chinese officials refer to solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries as the “new trio” of the country’s industrial base.

It doesn’t take a climate change scientist to see who will play a bigger role in a rapidly warming world.

Reading list: We highly recommend reading Wall Street Journal (splainer gift link) on China’s ascendance as a green energy power, and The Atlantic on why Trump’s win could hand China a gilt-edged chance at shaping COP29. Politico predicts that Trump’s impending second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will be very different. Grist summarises five talking points to watch out for, while The Hindu has more on why COP29 may achieve very little. The Guardian has details on the financial state of play while Indian Express has a good overview of the geopolitical dynamics.

A Middle East summit that matters

The context: Everyone expects Israel to be the biggest beneficiary of Donald Trump’s victory. Bibi Netanyahu is his BFF—and his son-in-law Jared Kushner is closely linked to the Israeli Right. Back in 2020, he helped steer the first set of Abraham Accords—making peace between Arab countries and Israel—in order to isolate Iran and leave Palestine at Israel’s mercy. Everyone in Washington expects a rerun of the same in Trump II. And that the Saudis will finally ink their deal with Tel Aviv—and give their seal of approval to this ‘new Middle East’.

What happened now: Leaders of the Arab world are meeting in Riyadh to discuss Israel’s invasion of Gaza—and bombing of Lebanon. And the Saudis are not playing their assigned role:

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has demanded that Israel immediately stop its military aggression in Gaza and Lebanon at the opening of a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh. In an address before the joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit on Monday, the crown prince, also known as MBS, condemned the “massacre committed against Palestinian and Lebanese people”.

More importantly this: Riyadh has affirmed its newly minted truce with Iran:

On Sunday, the Saudi and Iranian military chiefs met in Tehran — further signalling a thaw in relations as Iran considers a response to Israeli attacks on its territory. Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, emphasised the relationship in his opening remarks at the event.

This is not good news for either the White House—with or without Trump—or Tel Aviv. And guess who brokered the peace between Riyadh and Tehran? China.

The main takeaway: The summit sends a clear message to the Trump White House. It remains to be seen as to how he receives it. Al Jazeera and New York Times (login required) have more on the summit.

Three major arrests in Canada and India

The context: In 2023, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau accused New Delhi of orchestrating the assassination of a Canadian Sikh—Hardeep Singh Nijjar. It resulted in a diplomatic war—with New Delhi aggressively denying the allegations. But two months later, India was implicated in a similar plot in the US—the attempted assassination of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The entire Nijjar saga is explained in this Big Story. Everything on the Pannun plot is here.

What happened now: Three major arrests across Canada and India took place in the past week. These include:

Inderjeet Gosal for the attack on a temple in Brampton—where Sikh separatists stormed a Hindu temple. Gosal took over the reins of a key separatist group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) after Nijjar’s death. He is also considered Pannun’s ally.
Arshdeep Singh aka Arsh Dalla—who was a close aide to Nijjar—for a shooting incident in October in Ontario. Dalla is designated a terrorist by the Indian government.
Two of Dalla’s allies in Punjab—identified as Anmolpreet Singh and Navjot Singh—for the murder of activist Gurpreet Singh Hari Nau in Faridkot last month.

Why this is notable: The arrests come in the midst of a diplomatic war between India and Canada. New Delhi has long accused Ottawa of not doing enough to crack down on Khalistanis on its soil. And the arrests of Dalla in Canada—and his associates in India—suggests some degree of coordination. We may have turned a corner—though no one is saying so. The Hindu has more on the arrests in Punjab. Economic Times has more on Dalla and Gosal.

Amreeki dream trumps Achhe Din

The number of Indians seeking asylum in the US has surged by 855%—from 4,330 in FY2021 to 41,330 in FY2023. Most of these are ‘defensive’ asylum claims—filed to avoid deportation. They “were found to have a credible fear of persecution or torture by an Asylum Officer”—which is a bit much since almost half of these applicants are from Gujarat.

FYI: In 2023, Indians were the fifth largest group in seeking defensive asylum.

But, but, but: the percentage of accepted asylum applications has nosedived—dropping from 30.71% in 2021 (1,330 of the 4,330) to 12.92% in 2023 (5,340 out of the 41,330). This Big Story has more on the third big wave of Indian migration. (Times of India)

Looping back to Canada: The country has ended its Student Direct Stream (SDS) program—which helps students from 14 countries, including India, to fast-track their study permits. This is part of the push to curb immigration—which has created a housing crisis in the big cities. Why this matters to Indians:

From January to March 2023, nearly four out of five Indian students applied through SDS, with applicants achieving a 76% approval rate, compared to only 8% for those using the regular stream.

Reminder: As of 2023, there were 427,000 Indian students in Canada. Indian Express has more on the announcement.

Moving on to Mexico: A new study links extreme weather conditions to the spike in undocumented migration from Mexico to the US: “People from agricultural areas in Mexico were more likely to cross the border illegally after droughts and were less likely to return to their original communities when extreme weather continued.” Phys.org has more nerdy details.

Say hello to the Amazon Glass

Unlike the failed Google variety, these smart glasses are meant for company delivery drivers—navigating “to, around and within buildings” in that final stretch. It provides turn-by-turn directions via a screen—potentially saving seconds at each stop—which adds up to a lot of time across millions of daily deliveries. Removing handheld GPS devices also allows drivers to carry more packages.

The glasses are still in development—and they don’t look particularly attractive (as you can see below). Point to remember: Amazon had sold fewer than 10,000 units of its consumer wearable Echo Frames. (Reuters)

what caught our eye

business & tech

Trump’s election win triggered a massive stock surge for Elon Musk’s Tesla— which has now hit a $1 trillion market cap.
Sticking with Musk: X is testing out a free version of its AI chatbot, Grok.
The world’s largest chipmaker—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)—will no longer sell their most advanced products to Chinese companies.
US-based funds are pulling their investments out of India at the fastest rate since January 2022. The reason: US investments appear more attractive post-election.
With the end of the Vistara brand and IndiGo debuting its business class tier this week, Economic Times has a must-read on the new era for Indian aviation.
No, Canada did not block M Jaishankar’s press conference. It was Meta.
Striking New York Times tech workers have a new plan to screw their bosses: Creating free versions of its most popular games—including Wordle.

sports & entertainment

Mattel’s ‘wicked’ goof-up—the toy company has apologised after it mistakenly listed a porn site on the packaging of its dolls for the film adaptation of the hit musical.
Fashion icon Manish Malhotra is moving into film production with ‘Saali Mohabbat’, which will premiere at the 55th International Film Festival of India (IFFI) in Goa.
Jamie Oliver has withdrawn his new children’s book ‘Billy and the Epic Escape’ from shelves worldwide after it was heavily criticised for stereotyping indigenous Australians.

as for the rest

New York Times (splainer gift link) investigation has identified an unexpected culprit for Delhi pollution: A plan to burn trash and turn it into electricity.
To no one’s surprise, Israel has confirmed it was behind the operation to detonate hundreds of pagers in an attack on Lebanon in September.
Meanwhile, Taiwan says it closed its own probe into the exploding pagers attack, concluding that they weren’t manufactured by Taiwanese firms.
Over the past 17 years, the area covered by slums in Mumbai has declined by 8.6%.
IIT students, brace yourselves for a fee hike in the 2025-26 academic year.
Gay men are the target of violence across major Indian cities, with Kolkata topping the list, according to a new study.
The Print reports on ‘The Great Indian Sanitation Scam’—upper caste people secure government sanitation jobs on paper, but Valmikis are the ones actually doing the ‘dirty work’.
Say hello to the Delhi Metro’s new bike taxi service to ferry commuters to metro stations, including dedicated bike taxis for women.
Elon Musk “dropped in” on a call between President-elect Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Be very afraid.
Sticking with Trump: his election victory has led to a surge in US students searching for colleges abroad—which is kinda ironic given the number of Indians who flock to Amreeka.
700,000 premature deaths have occurred in Brazil over the past two decades due to trade driven deforestation—new research reveals.
Vanity Fair has a lively must-read on the frosty reception for Melania Trump’s new book, featuring customer complaints about “sticky goo” on the cover.
New York Times (splainer gift link) sheds light on a messy problem in orderly Singapore—keeping track of street cats!

Six things to see

One: The Maharashtra BJP has debuted the first human teleprompter—to help Shiv Sena CM Eknath Shinde give a speech at an election rally. This is truly a sight to be seen. (ABP News)

Two: Srilankan Airlines is promoting a special ‘Ramayana Trail’ for tourists—who can visit IRL locations where events of the Ramayana took place. What’s interesting: How the ad navigates the hazards of claiming an epic that casts your people as the villains. (NDTV)

Three: Women in Bangalore took to the streets for the annual 5K Saree Run—first started in 2016 to promote fitness. This year, it became a BJP nari shakti campaign—with MP Tejasvi Surya flagging off the run. You can check out more photos and vids on their Instagram page.

Four: Moving on to another entertaining mass event: Around 200,000 students rode their bikes almost 50 km from Zhengzhou to the ancient city of Kaifeng—looking for the most delicious dumplings! Authorities are scrambling to ban the rides—because they cause great traffic jams—as you can see below. (The Guardian)

Five: Berhampur Police in Odisha are known for “blending serious law enforcement announcements with wit and humour.” Below is a viral photo of a recent arrest. Hindustan Times has more context if you need it.

Six: Season two of the Emirates NBA Cup will include 30 pretty courts—designed colour-coordinated nicely with their respective home team’s badges. We’re especially in love with the classic bright-red Chicago Bulls court. Check out the NBA’s official website for all 30 court designs.