The death of the Iranian president—known as the butcher of Tehran—is hardly cause for tears. But will this helicopter crash change anything? Yes, but not right now.
First, tell me about the crash…
President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian both died in a helicopter crash in northern Iran. They were among nine people returning from Azerbaijan—where they had attended a dam inauguration with its leader, Ilham Aliyev. It took hours to identify the crash site—which is in a mountainous region. Rescuers only found a burnt out wreckage of the helicopter—and no signs of life. Below is the location of the crash:
Here’s drone footage of the crash:
And here’s the crash site:
The cause of the crash: is unknown for now. Mercifully, Israel has emphatically denied any role in the tragedy. The Americans are calling it a “possible hard landing”—as in, it crashed to the ground? We know the weather was terrible—they were flying in a mountainous region in dense fog.
Blame the Twin Huey: Most experts are also pointing their finger at the helicopter carrying the men. It was a civilian version of the ubiquitous Vietnam War-era UH-1N "Twin Huey"—rolled out in 1971.
Because of sanctions, Iran has struggled to update its aircraft—or find proper spare parts. Its military air fleet was mostly acquired before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. That said, Japan's Coast Guard, law enforcement agencies and fire departments in the United States and others still deploy the same model.
Presumably no one’s crying over this guy…
Well, with a nickname like ‘Butcher of Tehran’, you’re unlikely to have many friends. Apart from the official condolences—and orchestrated mourning—social media is awash with vids of Iranian women dancing with joy. For example, this:
And also this:
They all have one thing in common: a close relative who was killed by Raisi’s regime.
Meet the butcher: We’re not going to waste your time with some long bio (see: reading list). Suffice to say, Raisi was born into a clerical family—and was schooled entirely as a cleric. But he was neither clever nor well-read—unlike the founding fathers of the Islamic Republic. But Raisi had the uncanny knack of being useful to the right people at the right time:
- He began his clerical studies supervised by Morteza Pasandideh—the elder brother of Ruhollah Khomeini—who would become the Ayatollah we all know and love.
- He was 19 at the time of the revolution—and appointed as prosecutor at the age of 20—because the newly anointed Ayatollah needed ruthless enforcers.
- Raisi’s willingness to execute prisoners proved to be attractive—sky-rocketing him to the position of deputy prosecutor of Tehran.
- In 1988, he joined the Death Committee, which directed the execution of thousands between August and September 1988. That part of his resume has defined Raisi’s entire career.
About that Death Committee:
As Khomeini approached the end of his life, he… feared the Islamic republic would become less religiously driven in his absence and decided to test the mettle of his disciples. In 1988, shortly after the cease-fire with Iraq, the rahbar ordered one more bloodletting. In a span of few months, thousands of leftist prisoners were executed; the exact number is unknown, but most experts say a minimum of 5,000 were killed. Raisi was one of the commission judges overseeing the slaughter. Apostasy and the denigration of Islam were the usual charges hurled at the victims in hearings that often lasted minutes.
Raisi described the killings as “one of the proud achievements of the system.” You can see a young Raisi here:
How he became president: As a villain, Raisi was neither charming nor imaginative. He was, as we said before, useful—this time to Khomeini’s successor—the new Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But despite Khamenei’s best efforts, Raisi lost the presidential election in 2017—when “he revealed himself to be utterly uncharismatic in electoral debates.”
The sham election: Then in 2021, Khamenei took more energetic steps to ensure his protégé’s victory—disqualifying all serious competitors from the race. As a result, Raisi won an election that broke the record for the lowest turnout in Iranian history: “In the end, with half the electorate staying home and approximately 3.7 million Iranians turning in blank or protest ballots, Raisi was declared the winner.”
Quote to note: This is how The Atlantic sums up Raisi’s career:
Although competition is tight, Raisi may have more blood on his hands than any other living official of the Islamic Republic. Since the 1980s, the Islamic Republic has executed thousands of Iranian dissidents. The judiciary is the arm of the government that carries out this murderous function, and Raisi has held leading positions within it from the very start; he rose to become the head of the judiciary in 2019.
So will anything change because he’s dead?
Not really. That’s because ultimate power in Iran rests with the Supreme Leader—and control of its foreign policy and economy lies with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Raisi was mostly an ornamental figure who was picked precisely because he made an excellent yes-man. But Iran has long been sitting on a powder keg—that Raisi’s death will ignite sooner or later.
The heir is dead: Raisi was widely seen as the successor to Ali Khamenei—who is 85 years old. Raisi’s death creates a dangerous vacuum—space for a bitter power struggle. Raisi’s temporary replacement is First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber—who will have to hold elections within 50 days. There is no doubt that Khamenei will once again rig the results—but in whose favour?
The son also rises: One possible name being floated—Mojtaba Khamenei, is the 55-year-old son of—surprise!—the Supreme Leader himself. Raisi’s death may pave the path for the Islamic Republic’s very first dynastic handover. Raisi was slated to be the 85-year old Khameini’s political heir. The job may go to his biological one instead— but not without some serious jostling for the crown:
Many have anticipated a ferocious power struggle in Iran, but most expected it to follow Khamenei’s death. Now we are likely to see at least a dress rehearsal in which various factions will brandish their strength.
The dark horse: in this race is the Revolutionary Guard. One military expert says: “There is no heir apparent if he’s [Raisi] gone. What’s really interesting is to see if the IRGC will basically complete a slow-motion coup.”
The even darker horse: The Iranians. Raisi has died in the midst of a campaign of repression so horrific that the UN has called out Tehran for “crimes against humanity.” Iranians are not just fighting for freedom. Much of the unrest has been caused by incompetence and corruption—much of it associated with Raisi.There is always a risk that his death may revive the protests of the past year—though no one expects them to topple the regime.
Quote to note: When Raisi became president, Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh wrote in the Washington Post:
A regime that does not address the grievances and expectations of its citizens will confront, if the past is future, increasing opposition. In the past few years, Iran has been rocked by demonstrations driven by all the social classes. The big dilemma for the Biden administration may not be the potential for arms control in the 21st century but how to deal with a mass murderer facing a mass uprising.
With Raisi gone, the mass murderer in question may have changed—but the facts remain the same. As one expert puts it: “The story of the Iranian protest movement is always a matter of when and not if.”
The bottomline: The mass murderer is dead. Long live the mass murderer.
Reading list
For details on the crash, read The Guardian—while Reuters has more on the helicopter. BBC News has a good overview of what’s next and the political hierarchy within Iran. Arash Azizi in The Atlantic is the best read on the significance of Raisi’s death—and the political infighting ahead. Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh in the Washington Post penned an eye-opening deep dive on Raisi when he was first elected. The Guardian has more on his dubious record. Associated Press has a good profile of his temporary replacement Mohammad Mokhber.
