The presidential debate proved to be a battle between the worst of all alternatives—two old men, one senile, the other, out of control. The immediate fallout: Trump looks more inevitable than ever—and it’s the Democrats own damn fault.
Remind me about the debate…
We aren’t going to belabour the obvious. Joe Biden had a terrible evening. Here’s a clip that sums up why. Call it the ‘medi-scare’ moment:
The ultimate smackdown was when Trump said what everyone was thinking: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.”
As for Trump: He was entirely disconnected from reality and facts, as usual. As Simon Tisdall wrote in The Guardian:
Almost lost in the noise was the hideously repulsive performance of Trump himself. He looked more like a predator than a president, less candidate, more loathsome, reptilian bully. He lied persistently and without a blush. For him, all policy is prejudice. The debate was a timely reminder of how dangerous this man is.
Except everyone knows that—and his supporters don’t care. No one was asking Trump to step down after the debate.
What do the polls look like?
Here’s where we are right now in this horse race.
Bad news for Biden: The results of one post-debate survey shows a staggering 60% want Biden to drop out of the race. More importantly, a poll of Democratic-leaning voters shows a considerable loss of faith:
When asked the overall impression, the first was on his cognitive and physical fitness, expressing concern about his age, mental acuity, saying words, “confused” and “frail.” Then, they commented on difficulty articulating his thoughts and his train of thought.
He suffered the greatest setbacks with core Dem constituencies such as Black voters and Hispanics. A separate poll of all registered voters shows that 72% of registered voters do not believe Biden possesses the mental or cognitive health necessary to be able to fulfil the obligations of office, up from 65% at the beginning of the month.
Point to note: Almost everyone thinks Trump is more likely to win—including statistical guru Nate Silver:
Silver’s model, which ran 40,000 simulations, suggests that Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, with an average margin of 287.2 electoral votes. Additionally, it predicts that Biden is slightly more likely (51%) to win the popular vote, but by a margin of just 47.2%-47.1%.
Online bettors agree. They give Biden only a 33% chance of winning. The odds for Trump: 58%. Yup, that’s after the debate debacle. This graph says it all:
Data point to note: A full 45% of Democrats did not want Biden to be the nominee right before the debate. The party establishment has been ignoring warning signs for over a year.
Is he really too old?
This is what his own aides say:
The time of day is important as to which of the two Bidens will appear. From 10am to 4pm, Biden is dependably engaged — and many of his public events in front of cameras are held within those hours. Outside of that time range or while travelling abroad, Biden is more likely to have verbal miscues and become fatigued.
That’s the kindest spin so far—and is not good news for any nation’s leader. This isn’t a job that comes with fixed hours.
So will Biden step down?
He is certainly under tremendous pressure to do so. The venerable New York Times—the bastion of the liberal establishment—put out a damning editorial demanding his exit. It essentially said Biden had just one job during the debate—to prove that he can still do the job. And he blew it. The Times writes:
To make a call for a new Democratic nominee this late in a campaign is a decision not taken lightly, but it reflects the scale and seriousness of Mr. Trump’s challenge to the values and institutions of this country and the inadequacy of Mr. Biden to confront him.
All about the moolah: Money talks the loudest in politics. The Biden campaign boasts they raised more than $27 million between debate day and Friday evening—“with three record-breaking hours for grassroots fundraising on debate night.” But other reporting suggests the fattest cats are having second thoughts:
In private, donors frantically are texting each other, eager for any information on just how disastrous the night was. But so far they aren't calling for the party to ditch Biden. That could change if the next round of highly regarded polls look as dismal as his debate performance, several donors told Axios. "You can't go into an election 10 points down in early July," said one top donor. "You just can't."
The main takeaway: The initial polls are damning. But more solid trends will become apparent in the next couple of weeks—which will prove decisive:
“We’ll have polls and we’ll have a money count. If they’re good, it leans that he [remains in the race]. And if it’s not, all bets are off,” the official said. It will be “decided on data more than emotion. It’s too early to make the call.”
If the money dries up, Biden may not have the choice to keep fighting the good fight.
But what’s his justification for staying put?
For starters, Biden is still the most viable of all alternatives:
While Biden trails Trump 48-45 among respondents, all other leading Democratic figures would perform the same or worse in a head-to-head match-up. Prominent names that voters were asked about included vice-president Kamala Harris (45-48), transport secretary Pete Buttigieg (44-47), California governor Gavin Newsom (44-47) and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer (44-46).
The TINA argument: His supporters therefore make the ‘There is No Alternative’ argument. If you want to beat Trump, Biden’s your only choice. Any other option is pure ‘West Wing’ fantasy:
People started to kind of swirl a little bit but at the end of the day we’re going to be looking at two choices. Folks are coming back to a very pragmatic space and understanding what has to happen this election cycle.
The quarterback argument: Writing in the New Yorker, Jay Caspian Kang draws a football analogy. Yes, Biden is a disaster—but his replacements are far from ready:
But if the point of this election is to defeat Trump—and I imagine for many Democrats it is—then you have to do some dirty calculations and realise that you don’t have a Plan B because all the backups aren’t ready yet, and because introducing one of them in the middle of the game is a risky gamble, at best.
Isn’t it better to opt for a familiar—if unappetising option–—than the chaos of the unknown?
The bottomline: We also give Kang the last word on this unholy mess:
Democratic voters should be furious about… an Administration that tried to push a diminished Biden into a campaign season in the vain hope that maybe they would just get lucky and all the highest-profile moments would magically line up with his good days… The situation is certainly dire, but the irony here is that the Party’s foolishness and Biden’s arrogance, stubbornness, or blindness, means that we are stuck with him.
Reading list
The now infamous New York Times editorial (splainer gift link) asking Biden to step down is worth a read. Axios is best on insider goss on what the Dems are thinking—while the Times has the scramble behind the scenes of the Biden campaign. Jay Caspian Kang in the New Yorker (login required) makes a gloomy if passionate argument as to why “There is No Alternative” to Biden. Reuters explains the official process to replace Biden. NBC News and Axios are best on donors. The Guardian is best on the polls.
