Researched by: Sara Varghese

Uttar Pradesh: Relief and consolidation

The results: The BJP has won 273 out of 403 seats—while the Samajwadi Party has scored 125. Congress has only two seats, while Mayawati’s BSP has been reduced to one.

Point to note: BJP won 312 seats in the last 2017 election—and appears to have lost some ground to SP. But the saffron party has actually grown its vote share from 39.67% to 41.3%. So most of Akhilesh Yadav’s gains have come from other opposition rivals, Congress and BSP.

Where the BJP won: Contrary to expectations, the ruling party did well in constituencies where farmer discontent was at its highest. It swept all eight seats in Lakhimpur Kheri where farmers were run over by a union minister’s convoy. But there were some unexpected losses—as that of Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya and a number of prominent ministers.

How the BJP won: Despite his best efforts, Akhilesh Yadav was unable to fully peel away the Dalit or OBC vote—which are critical for a winning total (arithmetic explained here). And Priyanka Gandhi’s ‘Ladki hoon, Lad sakti hoon’ campaign did little to dent women’s enthusiasm for the BJP. Data point to note: Women outvoted men in UP—62.2% to 59.6%. And repealing the farm laws turned out to be a masterstroke—taking the wind out of the sails of the unions who failed to influence the elections:

“It is a failure of democracy. We tried to consolidate all farmers on the basis of the problems they face as a community. Instead, they are voting for those who share their caste or religion. Farmers have failed to vote for their own welfare.”

There are three key reasons why the BJP prevailed despite rising inflation, Covid mismanagement and rising rural suffering. 

One: Welfare schemes—specifically the free ration program. Both the Central and UP government doled out double doses of basic necessities, which led many women to declare: “Modi-Yogi ne bhookhe nahin marne diya.” Add in big infrastructure projects—which were continually publicised via mega-events—and cash-transfer schemes for farmers. All of it served to undercut the Dalit vote bank of the BSP and the SP’s outreach to OBCs.

Two: Also a big factor for women: personal safety. Yogi Adityanath’s Uttar Pradesh is a far safer place for women than the previous goonda raj of SP—and Akhilesh could never shake off that burden of history. And he did very little to counter the BJP’s narrative: “The BJP instilled this ‘fear’ among women voters that if the SP came back to power, the old days of hooliganism and goonda-gardi will return and things will become tough for the women in the state again.”

Three: Hindutva. At least in UP, the “Mandir-plus” agenda has trumped the usual caste arithmetic of Mandal (driven by reservations). There are many ways to read the role of Hindutva in this election. Some like The Telegraph view it as decisive: “the die is indelibly cast: India is turning a deep saffron that imitates the hues and haranguing of Hindu rashtra.” 

Others like Indian Express view it as the ballast that keeps the BJP afloat—and gives its vision coherence—when all else goes wrong: 

“The end result, as the BJP’s great success in UP despite rampant berozgari (unemployment), raging mehengai (price rise), and unprecedented pandemic-induced distress shows, has been this: Hindutva can lift itself off the ground on the back of ‘desh’ and ‘dharma’ if a scheme misses the target, a policy goes wrong, and the ground reality becomes inconvenient and messy.”

Or you can go with Pratap Bhanu Mehta’s view—the real danger is not that Hindutva is decisive but that it is immaterial to the average voter: “The fact that a politics that has venom, hate, prejudice, violence, repression and deceit is not a deal breaker for voters is something to think about. This road always ends in catastrophe.”

What’s next for Akhilesh? After years in disarray, there is finally a strong opposition party in Uttar Pradesh. Yadav could not pull off a victory but he has gained enough ground to take on Yogi—albeit at the expense of others:

“[T]he worry for the BJP is that Akhilesh Yadav has taken away a big part of the votes for Mayawati and the Congress. The SP has effectively consolidated a big chunk of the anti-BJP vote, turning UP into a two-horse race for the first time in several decades.”

Some look at this as a “semi final” for the party—if it works to build on its success and consolidate the anti-BJP vote. As one UP observer points out, Yadav “literally snoozed for five years and just didn’t play the opposition’s role”—and woke up just months before the election. But he can’t afford to do the same for another five years.

Punjab: Is AAP the new Congress?

The results: The party’s astonishing 92-seat win (out of 117) set a record—second only to that of an Akali Dal-BJP joint tally in 1997. And it won by decimating the big two in Punjab politics: Congress (18 seats) and the Akali Dal (4 seats). AAP now has a vote share of 42.1%—up from 23.7% in 2017. And it won by massive margins of 50,000 votes in a number of races. The result is a tectonic shift in the state’s political landscape. 

Point to note: The Akali Dal’s single-digit performance was the worst since its reorganisation in 1966. All the big names from the ruling Badal family lost their seats. The other big loser: Amarinder Singh whose political career appears to be over.

Where AAP won: The party decisively defeated the Dalit card played by Congress—which chose Charanjit Singh Channi as its Chief Minister candidate. Channi lost in both his seats—and AAP made significant advances in Dalit strongholds in the state. More importantly, Congress only retained nine of its 17 seats in these areas.

How AAP won: There is a deep exhaustion in Punjab with politics-as-usual—and yo-yoing between the two main parties who began to look depressingly similar. The chaos and infighting within the ruling Congress sealed that impression. Rahul Gandhi’s decision to oust Amarinder and sideline Sidhu just months before the election did not help. And the Akali Dal was already tainted by its association with the BJP and the farm laws. This offered the perfect window for AAP.

Also this: While Congress and Akali Dal were busy jousting over local issues like “sacrilege” (explained here), Punjabis voted for AAP’s promise of governance: quality government education, health, power and water at cheap rates. AAP has now honed what it calls “The Delhi Model”—inspired no doubt by the Gujarat Model—as its primary pitch:

“Its campaign was predominantly focused on its successful projects in Delhi… and made developmental promises that the electorate of a state reeling under a governance deficit readily warmed up to… And lastly, Kejriwal smartly used the attacks made against him by the rival parties… to his own advantage by projecting himself as an anti-establishment outsider with an impeccable track record in governance.”

Is AAP a national party? Not yet but it certainly thinks it can become one. The state party chief Raghav Chaddha said:

“The AAP will be the Congress’s national and natural replacement…. Arvind Kejriwal is the hope of crores of people. If God is willing and people give an opportunity, he will definitely be seen in a bigger role, that of Prime Minister, soon.”

Point to note: AAP won two seats in Goa for the very first time—while Trinamool got zilch.

The AAP strategy: is drawn straight from the BJP playbook. There’s the rhetoric of throwing out the old order:

“For 75 years these parties (followed) the British system and looted the country…. We have changed this system in seven years…. First, there was a revolution in Delhi, then one in Punjab; now it will spread across the country.”

And there is the same appeal to populism:

“Today also, when Kejriwal spoke, he was again pitching for the subaltern classes, the aspirational revolution. He said that the man who defeated Channi was someone who works at a mobile repair shop. This is exactly the note Modi struck in 2014—that I’m a chai seller and this is the India of the future, where anyone can occupy high positions.”

Plus the Hindutva touch: Given the routine and elaborate displays of his Hindu faith, Kejriwal is clearly honing his own version of Mandir-plus—or more likely Governance-plus, where the soft Hindutva is an added layer to armour the party from BJP accusations of being “anti-Hindu.” More interestingly, he has refused to attack Modi directly ever since the state elections were announced.

OTOH: While AAP is eyeing Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat as its next targets—again, to replace Congress as BJP’s rival—it will be difficult to establish a footprint in states where there are strong regional parties. But delivering big on its promise of governance (which is BJP’s ‘development’) will almost certainly help oust Congress as the BJP’s national rival. 

Good or bad for the BJP? BJP insiders insist that AAP’s win does not pose a threat to the party—but to Congress:

“The anti-BJP space is opening up and with the Congress’ ability to retain its relevance as a binding force for the opposition being doubtful, it (AAP) can be in that space… Opposition to BJP has a new formidable star rising to compete with others. It’s not against the BJP, his race is among the opposition leaders.”

Winning a Lok Sabha election is also a big ask since Delhi and Punjab together only give AAP 20 seats. But others are more wary of the threat posed by this copycat version:

“The AAP indulges in welfare politics and is rallying behind a strong and charismatic leader. It also attracts the weaker sections, the voters from these sections have shown trust in him. So in the long run it is not going to be good news for us.”

Is this the end of Congress?

The BJP has won in all its direct contests against Congress—securing majorities in Uttarakhand (47 seats) and Manipur (32 seats) and one seat short of winning total in Goa (20 seats), . And in each state, Congress has lost serious ground since the last election. In fact, in Goa, Congress defectors played a key role in securing the BJP’s victory:

“Much of the credit for the win goes to those who defected from the Congress, adding over 60,000 votes for the BJP. The ‘individual effort’ of the imported and poached leaders compensated for any loss due to anti-incumbency and helped the BJP retain its decisive electoral position in Goa’s politics.”

Point to note: More noteworthy that BJP’s win was Congress’ loss. In UP, it only got a shameful 2.4% votes in its worst performance ever. It lost 6 seats in Goa and 23 seats in Manipur since its last outing. Also demoralising: the fact that Congress’ “secret weapon” Priyanka proved to be a dud despite her best, most passionate efforts.

To Gandhi or not to Gandhi: As always, the dissenters within the party are freely airing their grievances about the absence of leadership. But according to Indian Express, this time the mood is not of defiance but despair. And their diagnosis of the disease points right at them:

“We can’t keep arguing that the BJP has won playing the Hindu-Muslim card or polarisation. We will be deluding ourselves if we keep thinking so. Where are Muslims in Punjab? Or, for that matter Uttarakhand, Manipur or Goa? It is much more than that. Our leadership lacks credibility. We have to accept that fact. But how can we, given our party structure?”

And this time, the Gandhi siblings cannot be accused of being lazy or erratic, as another leader noted:

“Priyanka Gandhi Vadra addressed 209 rallies and roadshows in Uttar Pradesh alone. She and Rahul Gandhi went to Hathras, raised the Lakhimpur Kheri killing of farmers to the hilt. But nothing has worked. We could not have done much in UP given the caste and religious polarisation. The women-centric campaign came from that realisation. But it did not touch any chord. It is a sad realisation that we and our leaders lack credibility which makes it difficult to convey our message.”

What’s left unstated: is the destructive role of Rahul Gandhi—who famously abdicated the post of president only to continue to call all the shots—greatly to the party’s detriment. 

The big picture: Despite all this, as Swati Chaturvedi concludes in NDTV, little is likely to change:

“The Congress may privately be aching to send the Gandhis on gardening leave, but even today's developments will not lead to the family either accepting the blame or the party calling their bluff. Same old, same old. Just the way the Congress likes it.”

Of course, the other alternative is to take up the Trinamool party on its offer—to merge with the TMC with Mamata as their leader lol!

The bottomline: Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes, “Politics, in the end, is a game of competitive credibility and the BJP simply has no competition.” And no ragtag, bickering coalition of parties will be able to take on the BJP in a national election. What the nation needs: “a new Opposition almost from scratch”—which seems as likely as porcine creatures developing wings.

Reading list

Pratap Bhanu Mehta offers a scathing assessment of the election results. Swati Chaturvedi offers a damning takedown of the Gandhi siblings. Manoj CG has a very good piece on how Mandir has trumped Mandal. Indian Express has more on the handwringing inside Congress—and BJP insiders dismissing AAP. The Hindu talked to experts about AAP becoming a national party. NDTV explains why the BJP should be worried about Akhilesh Yadav.