The TLDR: Where fates of polls elsewhere are determined by electoral tides, in India, it is all about hawa—and the direction of the wind of popular sentiment. And that’s why the mini-exodus of Other Backward Caste leaders from the BJP has been raising eyebrows—and questions about the saffron party’s future in the state. This time around, all the talk is about the other ‘C’—caste not communalism.
Researched by: Sara Varghese & Ankita Ghosh
The UP election: The basic deets
The Assembly polls will be held over seven phases between February 10 and March 7. A total of 403 seats are at stake—of which the BJP currently holds a staggering 325. Its primary rivals are:
- Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party in alliance with 15 smaller parties.
- Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party which is fighting by its lonesome.
- Also a lone warrior: the Congress Party led in the state by Priyanka Gandhi—though she has not been named as its Chief Minister candidate.
- The rest—including Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool, Left parties etc—will mainly act as “spoilers”—taking away votes from the big three.
To be clear, the BJP’s only real rival in the list above is the Samajwadi Party. The rest may play a role if a post-election alliance is needed to keep the BJP out of power.
Why this election matters: Uttar Pradesh is the biggest state in the country—and accounts for 80 Lok Sabha seats. And it lies at the heart of the BJP’s ‘Hindi heartland’ strategy—to sweep states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh etc to win at the Centre. So UP is key to the BJP’s future in the national elections slated for May 2024.
Point to note: Uttar Pradesh voters are notoriously fickle—and almost never elect the same party twice in a row. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will be attempting to break a “35-year jinx” by winning twice in a row. The number of seats needed for a majority: 202.
The big fat election pie
Professor Ashutosh Varshney broadly breaks up the voting blocs in Uttar Pradesh in the following way:
“Basically, it is a 20-20-20-40 state: 20% upper caste, 20% Dalit, 20% Muslim and 40% OBC. Some communities are a bit smaller (Muslims, for example, are 19.2% of the state), others slightly larger (Dalits are roughly 21%), and the upper caste and OBC figures are sample-based estimates. But, overall, the 20-20-20-40 division is a good starting point for political analysis.”
Now, none of these categories are homogenous, and contain significant divisions that can work to a party’s advantage:
- Dalits are divided between Jatav and non-Jatavs—who have voted for the BJP in large numbers in the past.
- Muslim Shias often vote saffron unlike the Sunnis.
- Upper caste votes are split between Brahmins and Thakurs—who don’t always agree.
- And the Other Backward Castes—basically middle-level castes that resent the dominance of the upper castes—are divided between Yadavs and non-Yadavs.
The winning formula: requires slicing and combining these divisions. A party either sweeps up two of those ‘20%’ groups plus enough of the 40% OBCs—or vice versa.
- For example, Samajwadi party ruled with the help of Yadavs plus Muslims. BSP combined Dalit Jatavs with Muslims.
- But these were small majorities—formed with just 30% of the vote share.
- In 2017, the BJP monopolised the upper caste vote—and added non-Jatav Dalits.
- More importantly, it also won 58% of the OBCs by mopping up all the non-Yadav voters—in comparison to Congress+SP’s 18% and BSP’s 11% of the OBC slice.
- The result: the BJP won a whopping 40% of all votes.
Point to note: In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party’s vote share rose to a dizzying 50%—thanks to the personal popularity of PM Modi. The BJP dominated every voting bloc—other than the core base of SP (Yadavs), BSP (Jatav Dalits) and, of course, Muslims.
The BJP path to victory

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